# Cincinnati Bengals v New York Jets — NFL Week 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cincinnati Bengals 38 – 39 New York Jets

_New York Jets rally to fly past Cincinnati Bengals from 11 down._

Half time: 24 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 91% / New York Jets 9% · Paycor Stadium · Mon, 27 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Flacco (10'), Tee Higgins (20' Tipped ⚡), Chase Brown (29' Tipped ⚡), Samaje Perine (43'), Chase Brown (50' Tipped ⚡) · New York Jets: Tyler Johnson (25'), Breece Hall (46' Tipped ⚡), Breece Hall (52' Tipped ⚡), Mason Taylor (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 91% | Lost |
| New York Jets | 9% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Jets Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 8, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 27 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Cincinnati Bengals 38–39 New York Jets in NFL Week 8 at Paycor Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cincinnati led for almost the entire night at Paycor Stadium, and then, with two minutes to go, it wasn't enough. New York Jets snatched it 39-38, turning what had been a comfortable Bengals lead into the sort of finish that makes you go back and check the score again.

Cincinnati were in front from the opening quarter. Joe Flacco's touchdown with 5:38 left in the first put them up 9-0, and by half-time it was 24-13. They stretched that further in the third, going up 31-16 with 2:41 remaining in the quarter off a Samaje Perine score. On paper, that's a lead that should hold up. It didn't.

The fourth quarter is where the Jets clawed all the way back. Breece Hall scored twice in the space of six minutes, first cutting it to 37-24, then again to make it 38-30 with 8:01 on the clock. Mason Taylor's touchdown with two minutes left tied it at 38-38, and by the time the clock ran out New York had found the extra point that mattered, closing it out 39-38. Cincinnati led for the better part of four quarters and still finished on the wrong side of the ledger.

The stats explain how it flipped. New York Jets outgained Cincinnati 502 yards to 404, and did most of that work on the ground: 254 rushing yards, just over half their total offence. Cincinnati managed 181 rushing yards of their own but couldn't match the push up front, and New York's offensive EPA of 21.8 against Cincinnati's 15.3 tells the same story: snap for

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
| New York Jets | 0 | 13 | 3 | 23 | 39 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 404 | Total Yards | **502** |
| 223 | Passing Yards | **248** |
| 181 | Rushing Yards | **254** |
| 34 | First Downs | **37** |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **1** |
| 15.3 | Offensive EPA | **21.8** |

**Model Report Card**

New York Jets defied the model's 91% prediction for Cincinnati Bengals, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Cincinnati Bengals by 2.2 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 77 points came in 41 points higher than the predicted 36. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 77 points was 32 points above Scott Novak's career average of 45. New York Jets bucked the trend, Cincinnati Bengals historically win 50% of games under Scott Novak, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $1.39 (edge +18.7%) — model probability 90.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cincinnati Bengals by 2 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Cincinnati Bengals here: 91% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cincinnati Bengals sit 135 ELO points clear, 1479 to 1344. Form leans Cincinnati Bengals' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for New York Jets.

Cincinnati Bengals own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Cincinnati Bengals by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 36. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Cincinnati Bengals to win, not to win big.

New York Jets have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and New York Jets took the most recent meeting 39-38 in 2025 Week 8.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Joe Flacco starts under centre for Cincinnati Bengals, Justin Fields for New York Jets, with Zac Taylor and Aaron Glenn calling the shots.

Cincinnati Bengals come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Cincinnati Bengals favourites, Cincinnati Bengals $1.39 and New York Jets $3.10, with the spread at Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Cincinnati Bengals 5 · New York Jets 7 |
| Last meeting | New York Jets 39-38 (2025) |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 home |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Joe Flacco · Justin Fields |
| Head coaches | Zac Taylor · Aaron Glenn |
| Rest | Cincinnati Bengals 10d · New York Jets 7d |
| Market | Cincinnati Bengals $1.39 · New York Jets $3.10 |
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cincinnati Bengals

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3W–3L | 50% |
| New York Jets | 1W–3L | 25% |

Avg total: 45.1 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Leans away

When Scott Novak officiates, Cincinnati Bengals have won 3 of 6 games (50%), significantly stronger than New York Jets's 1 from 4 (25%). Small sample (4 games for New York Jets).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 17.4pts |
| 34.2pts | Avg Conceded | 23.8pts |
| -16.6pts | Avg Margin | -6.4pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W6 L · W7 W | 17.6 |
| New York Jets | W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W6 L · W7 L | 17.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cincinnati Bengals lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W8 | Cincinnati Bengals | 38 – 39 | New York Jets |
| 2022 | W3 | New York Jets | 12 – 27 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2021 | W8 | New York Jets | 34 – 31 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2019 | W13 | Cincinnati Bengals | 22 – 6 | New York Jets |
| 2016 | W1 | New York Jets | 22 – 23 | Cincinnati Bengals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Paycor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 2/2g | 18/27g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.60 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 3 in 7g | 7/10g (1·3·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 16/21g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/3g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/18g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.03 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 50' |
| – | Tanner Hudson | TE | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/17g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Joe Flacco | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/11g | 6% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Tahj Brooks | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Justin Fields | QB | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Allen Lazard | WR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Beck | RB | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Arian Smith | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 52' |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Taylor | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Tyler Johnson | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 25' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 38% · **scored Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ Justin Fields 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Johnson, M.Taylor

**Cincinnati Bengals** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 44% · no TD
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 31% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Tee Higgins — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Noah Fant — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Bengals: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Flacco, S.Perine

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cincinnati Bengals 1479 · New York Jets 1344 · ELO difference: 135 in favour of Cincinnati Bengals

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cincinnati Bengals | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 32 | 41 | New York Jets +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 53 | Cincinnati Bengals +5 |
| Backfield | 36 | 46 | New York Jets +10 |
| Pass Rush | 49 | 55 | New York Jets +6 |
| Secondary | 54 | 50 | Even |
| Special Teams | 57 | 61 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New York Jets |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Jets |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |

**Model Confidence: 91%** — Cincinnati Bengals predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-26 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)