# Baltimore Ravens v Chicago Bears — NFL Week 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Baltimore Ravens 30 – 16 Chicago Bears

_Baltimore Ravens pick apart Chicago Bears._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Baltimore Ravens 67% / Chicago Bears 33% · M&T Bank Stadium · Mon, 27 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (22' Tipped ⚡), Charlie Kolar (52'), Derrick Henry (58' Tipped ⚡) · Chicago Bears: D'Andre Swift (48' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 67% | Won |
| Chicago Bears | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 8, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 27 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Baltimore Ravens 30–16 Chicago Bears in NFL Week 8 at M&T Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Chicago Bears did most things right on paper. More total yards than Baltimore, 381 to 363. More first downs, 31 to 29. Two sacks to Baltimore's one. Caleb Williams threw for 285 yards, hit Rome Odunze seven times for 114. By the usual measures, that's a winning stat sheet.

It wasn't, though. Baltimore Ravens beat the Bears 30-16 at M&T Bank Stadium, and the gap between the yardage battle and the scoreboard tells you where this one actually turned.

Start with the turnover. Chicago's only giveaway was Williams' interception, and Baltimore had none. One mistake, zero from the other side, and in a game this tight for stretches that's the sort of margin that decides things. Add in offensive EPA, where Baltimore ran up +12.7 against Chicago's +1.5, and you've got a Bears offence that moved the ball well between the twenties but didn't convert that into points the way the Ravens did with less.

The shape of the scoring tells the story too. Chicago led 6-0 after the first quarter and were still up 6-0 heading into the second before Derrick Henry scored to level it at 6-6 with 8:19 left in the half. Baltimore led 10-6 at the break and 16-6 through three quarters, a lead built quietly while Chicago's yardage advantage sat there doing nothing for them on the board. D'Andre Swift's touchdown with 12:26 left in the fourth got the Bears within four, 16-12, but Baltimore answered through Charlie Kolar and then Henry again, the second Henry score coming with 2:16 to go to make it 29-16 before the extra point closed it out at 30-16.

Henry finished with 71 yards on 21 carries and both those rushing touchdowns, part of a 177-yard rushing effort that made up 46% of Baltimore's total offence. That's a Ravens backfield that came in rated well below Chicago's, 42 to 64, and still ran the game plan through the ground attack because it worked. Tyler Huntley didn't need to do much through the air, 17 from 22 for 186 and a touchdown, efficient without needing volume.

Williams' 25-of-38 for 285 with Odunze doing the heavy lifting was a solid individual outing lost in a losing team effort, undercut by the one interception Baltimore didn't have to match.

Chicago came in on a four-game winning streak, form reading LWWWW across the last five, against a Ravens side that had won just once in five and was averaging 30.6 points conceded a game. On paper this was a mismatch running the other way, and the model's own read had Chicago favoured by three points with the ratings closer than the final margin suggests, Baltimore at 1512 and Chicago at 1462. Alphr's model still picked Baltimore to win outright at 67%, and got that right. Where it missed was the margin, tipped at 3 points when Baltimore won by 14. The total was the one that landed close, 44 projected against 46 actual.

Rest may have played its part. Baltimore came in on 14 days off to Chicago's seven. However you weigh that, the Bears did enough to win a lot of games and still walked out with a loss. Sometimes the ledger just doesn't balance the way it should.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 0 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 30 |
| Chicago Bears | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 363 | Total Yards | **381** |
| 186 | Passing Yards | **285** |
| **177** | Rushing Yards | 96 |
| 29 | First Downs | **31** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| **12.7** | Offensive EPA | 1.5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 46, within 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Shawn Smith's career average of 47. Baltimore Ravens bucked the trend, Chicago Bears historically win 80% of games under Shawn Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.68 (edge +6.8%) — model probability 66.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 67% to see off Chicago Bears. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 51 ELO points clear, 1512 to 1462. Form leans Chicago Bears' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Baltimore Ravens.

On paper Chicago Bears shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Pass Rush and Recent Form. The model still sides with Baltimore Ravens, which says Team Rating (ELO) and Rest Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Chicago Bears by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Baltimore Ravens to win, not to win big.

Baltimore Ravens have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 30-16 in 2025 Week 8.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Lamar Jackson starts under centre for Baltimore Ravens, Caleb Williams for Chicago Bears, with John Harbaugh and Ben Johnson calling the shots.

Baltimore Ravens come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Baltimore Ravens $1.68 and Chicago Bears $2.24, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -2.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Baltimore Ravens 4 · Chicago Bears 3 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 30-16 (2025) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 3-6 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-4 away |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Caleb Williams |
| Head coaches | John Harbaugh · Ben Johnson |
| Rest | Baltimore Ravens 14d · Chicago Bears 7d |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $1.68 · Chicago Bears $2.24 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -2.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Chicago Bears

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 6W–4L | 60% |
| Chicago Bears | 4W–1L | 80% |

Avg total: 47.5 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Smith officiates, Chicago Bears have won 4 of 5 games (80%), significantly stronger than Baltimore Ravens's 6 from 10 (60%). Small sample (5 games for Chicago Bears).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 30.6pts | Avg Conceded | 25.6pts |
| -9.8pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W2 W · W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W6 L | 20.8 |
| Chicago Bears | W2 L · W3 W · W4 W · W6 W · W7 W | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W8 | Baltimore Ravens | 30 – 16 | Chicago Bears |
| 2021 | W11 | Chicago Bears | 13 – 16 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2017 | W6 | Baltimore Ravens | 24 – 27 | Chicago Bears |
| 2013 | W11 | Chicago Bears | 23 – 20 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2009 | W15 | Baltimore Ravens | 31 – 7 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 4 in 6g | 10/10g (1·2·2·1·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 15/15g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.44 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.60 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 22' 58' |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/42g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 28/60g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/32g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/21g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/22g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 37% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/15g | 6% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 8/27g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Huntley | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/14g | 16% | — | — |

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/31g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jahdae Walker | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Travis Homer | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Rome Odunze 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 60% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Zay Flowers — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Kolar

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1512 · Chicago Bears 1462 · ELO difference: 51 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | Chicago Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 42 | 53 | Chicago Bears +11 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 50 | Even |
| Backfield | 42 | 64 | Chicago Bears +22 |
| Pass Rush | 48 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 51 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 57 | 63 | Chicago Bears +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Baltimore Ravens |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-26 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)