# Tennessee Titans v New England Patriots — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tennessee Titans 13 – 31 New England Patriots

_New England Patriots see off Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 13 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tennessee Titans 36% / New England Patriots 64% · Nissan Stadium · Mon, 20 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tennessee Titans: Chimere Dike (10') · New England Patriots: Austin Hooper (25'), Kayshon Boutte (30' Tipped ⚡), Rhamondre Stevenson (38' Tipped ⚡), K'Lavon Chaisson (38')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 64% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.1 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Tennessee Titans 13–31 New England Patriots in NFL Week 7 at Nissan Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Tennessee Titans were within four at the break, 13-17, and for a half it looked like the kind of game Nissan Stadium might get excited about. Chimere Dike put the Titans up 9-3 with 5:11 left in the first quarter, and Tennessee closed the term ahead 10-3. Then New England found their rhythm, and the home side never really got it back.

Austin Hooper's touchdown with 5:38 left in the second levelled it at 10-9, and Kayshon Boutte's score with 55 seconds on the clock put the Patriots up 16-13 and then 17-13 at half-time. That's the version of this game where it's still a contest, close enough that a single defensive stop flips the momentum back. The third quarter is where it stopped being one.

Rhamondre Stevenson punched in a rushing touchdown with 7:34 left in the third to make it 23-13, and barely a blink later, at 7:25, a Kaden Chaisson score pushed the margin to 30-13. Tennessee had no answer. The final quarter passed without another point from either side, and New England closed it out 31-13.

The gap on the stat sheet matches what the scoreboard showed. New England outgained Tennessee 409 yards to 294 and did it with a running game the Titans simply couldn't handle: 175 rushing yards to Tennessee's 39. First downs told a similar story, 35 for the Patriots against 29 for the Titans. New England also didn't turn the ball over once, while Tennessee coughed it up twice, and in a game decided by 18 points, that gap matters.

Efficiency was the bigger story though. New England's offence posted an EPA of +14.8, while Tennessee's sat at -14.5, a swing of close to 30 points of expected value across the game. Sacks were even at four apiece, so it wasn't pressure that separated the two sides. It was what each team did when they had the ball.

Through the air, Cam Ward went 25-of-34 for 255 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Drake Maye was tidier and more efficient, 21-of-23 for 222 yards and two touchdowns. Stevenson led all rushers with 88 yards on 18 carries and the touchdown, and on the other side, Chimere Dike was Tennessee's best weapon by a distance: four catches for 70 yards and the game's opening score.

Coming in, the numbers pointed one way. New England had the stronger quarterback rating, 56 to 24, and the better receiving corps, 62 to 48. Tennessee had the edge in the backfield and in special teams, but recent form made the gap obvious anyway, New England winning four of their last five to Tennessee's one, and averaging 27.4 points a game against Tennessee's 14.2.

Alphr's model had New England winning at 64% probability, which landed. The margin was where the model undersold it, tipping a 4.1-point win that turned into an 18-point rout. The total score prediction fared much better, tipped at 43 against an actual combined 44, within a point. New England did what the ratings suggested they might, just with more emphasis than expected.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| New England Patriots | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 31 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 294 | Total Yards | **409** |
| **255** | Passing Yards | 234 |
| 39 | Rushing Yards | **175** |
| 29 | First Downs | **35** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 4 | Sacks Made | 4 |
| -14.5 | Offensive EPA | **14.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.1 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 40.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46. New England Patriots's victory aligns with Craig Wrolstad's historical trend, New England Patriots have a 75% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.34 (edge -10.8%) — model probability 63.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

New England Patriots are the call at 64%, but Tennessee Titans stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New England Patriots sit 152 ELO points clear, 1455 to 1303. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Tennessee Titans.

New England Patriots own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has New England Patriots by 4.1, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean New England Patriots, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

New England Patriots have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 31-13 in 2025 Week 7.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-8 at home, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-0 away, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Cam Ward starts under centre for Tennessee Titans, Drake Maye for New England Patriots, with Brian Callahan and Mike Vrabel calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, Tennessee Titans $3.35 and New England Patriots $1.34, with the spread at New England Patriots -6.5 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tennessee Titans 3 · New England Patriots 9 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 31-13 (2025) |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-8 home |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-0 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Cam Ward · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | Brian Callahan · Mike Vrabel |
| Market | Tennessee Titans $3.35 · New England Patriots $1.34 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -6.5 · total 40.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New England Patriots

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 2W–8L | 20% |
| New England Patriots | 9W–3L | 75% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Craig Wrolstad officiates, New England Patriots have won 9 of 12 games (75%), significantly stronger than Tennessee Titans's 2 from 10 (20%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 14.2pts | Avg Score | 27.4pts |
| 28.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| -14.0pts | Avg Margin | 7.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | W2 L · W3 L · W4 L · W5 W · W6 L | 14.2 |
| New England Patriots | W2 W · W3 L · W4 W · W5 W · W6 W | 27.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tennessee Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W7 | Tennessee Titans | 13 – 31 | New England Patriots |
| 2024 | W9 | Tennessee Titans | 20 – 17 | New England Patriots |
| 2021 | W12 | New England Patriots | 36 – 13 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2019 | W18 | New England Patriots | 13 – 20 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2018 | W10 | Tennessee Titans | 34 – 10 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Nissan Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 33% | 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 3/10g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/24g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Kinsey | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/14g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 21% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $18.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.25 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 8% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joshua Dobbs | QB | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 1/3g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Terrell Jennings | RB | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Hunter Henry — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Kayshon Boutte — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 24% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 23% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Patriots: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Hooper, K.Chaisson

**Tennessee Titans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyjae Spears 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Dike

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tennessee Titans 1303 · New England Patriots 1455 · ELO difference: 152 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tennessee Titans | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 24 | 56 | New England Patriots +32 |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 62 | New England Patriots +14 |
| Backfield | 51 | 40 | Tennessee Titans +11 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 49 | Tennessee Titans +6 |
| Secondary | 48 | 49 | Even |
| Special Teams | 68 | 55 | Tennessee Titans +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tennessee Titans |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-19 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)