# Seattle Seahawks v Houston Texans — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 27 – 19 Houston Texans

_Seattle Seahawks ride the wave past Houston Texans._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 49% / Houston Texans 51% · Lumen Field · Tue, 21 Oct, 01:00 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (8' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (15' Tipped ⚡), Zach Charbonnet (45' Tipped ⚡) · Houston Texans: Anderson (38'), Woody Marks (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 51% | Lost |
| Seattle Seahawks | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.4 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 Oct 2025, 01:00 pm_

Seattle Seahawks 27–19 Houston Texans in NFL Week 7 at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seattle Seahawks led from the seven minute mark of the first quarter and never trailed again, but for a stretch in the third it looked like Houston might make a real fist of it. That's the story of this one: a fast start, a scare, and a response that put it out of reach again.

Zach Charbonnet opened the scoring with just under eight minutes gone, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba added another right on the buzzer to end the first quarter at 14-0. Seattle Seahawks were cruising. Houston Texans clawed back a field goal before the break to make it 14-6, then came out swinging in the third. Woody Anderson's touchdown with 7:33 left in the quarter cut it to 17-12, and for a moment the home crowd at Lumen Field had reason to fidget.

Charbonnet killed that momentum stone dead. His second major, with 57 seconds left in the third, pushed it out to 26-12, and Seattle Seahawks closed the quarter 27-12. Woody Marks got Houston Texans within eight late in the fourth, but there wasn't enough clock left to matter. Final score: 27-19.

The efficiency numbers back up what the scoreboard showed. Seattle Seahawks ran +9.5 expected points clear of Houston Texans on offence, despite giving the ball away four times to one. That's a turnover margin that should have cost them, and in a tighter contest it probably would have. Instead they outgained Houston Texans 331 yards to 285 and did most of that damage on the ground, 118 rushing yards to 56, with Kenneth Walker III grinding out 66 on 17 carries.

Through the air, Sam Darnold was steady rather than spectacular: 17 from 31 for 213 yards, a touchdown and a pick. C.J. Stroud actually threw for more, 229 yards on a heavier workload of 23 from 49, also with a touchdown and an interception, but he needed nearly 50 attempts to get there. Smith-Njigba was the difference-maker in the passing game regardless, 8 catches for 123 yards and a score, the kind of afternoon that papers over four turnovers.

The positional read going in favoured Seattle Seahawks pretty much across the board, quarterback 74 to 60, receiving corps 67 to 54, pass rush 61 to 54, and the pass rush number showed up on the day, 3 sacks to 2. Houston Texans' only real statistical edges, in the backfield and the secondary, didn't translate into stopping the run or the deep ball, and that's ultimately what let Seattle Seahawks's better recent form (four wins from five, averaging

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 14 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 27 |
| Houston Texans | 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 19 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| **331** | Total Yards | 285 |
| 213 | Passing Yards | **229** |
| **118** | Rushing Yards | 56 |
| 24 | First Downs | **27** |
| 4 | Turnovers | **1** |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **-12.2** | Offensive EPA | -21.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Seattle Seahawks defied the model's 51% prediction for Houston Texans, a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.4 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 46, within 5 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Seattle Seahawks's victory aligns with Carl Cheffers's historical trend, Seattle Seahawks have a 73% win rate under this referee. Seattle Seahawks's home victory fits Carl Cheffers's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $2.40 (edge +9.8%) — model probability 51.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Houston Texans +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 1 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texans. The model can't split them, landing on Houston Texans at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Seattle Seahawks sit 24 ELO points clear, 1572 to 1547, so the model is backing Houston Texans against the ratings gap. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Houston Texans.

On paper Seattle Seahawks shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The model still sides with Houston Texans, which says Rest Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 1.4, with the two sides combining for about 41. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Seattle Seahawks have won 5 of the last 6 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 27-19 in 2025 Week 7.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Houston Texans went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 23.8 points for and 17.4 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, C.J. Stroud for Houston Texans, with Mike Macdonald and DeMeco Ryans calling the shots.

Houston Texans come in fresher, 15 days between games against 8.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Seattle Seahawks $1.60 and Houston Texans $2.40, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -3 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Seattle Seahawks 5 · Houston Texans 1 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 27-19 (2025) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Houston Texans 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.8 for · 17.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · C.J. Stroud |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · DeMeco Ryans |
| Rest | Seattle Seahawks 8d · Houston Texans 15d |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.60 · Houston Texans $2.40 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -3 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Seattle Seahawks

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 16W–6L | 73% |
| Houston Texans | 6W–10L | 38% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Carl Cheffers officiates, Seattle Seahawks have won 16 of 22 games (73%), significantly stronger than Houston Texans's 6 from 16 (38%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 30.6pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 12.2pts |
| 10.6pts | Avg Margin | 9.4pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 15.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W2 W · W3 W · W4 W · W5 L · W6 W | 30.6 |
| Houston Texans | W1 L · W2 L · W3 L · W4 W · W5 W | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W7 | Seattle Seahawks | 27 – 19 | Houston Texans |
| 2021 | W14 | Houston Texans | 13 – 33 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2017 | W8 | Seattle Seahawks | 41 – 38 | Houston Texans |
| 2013 | W4 | Houston Texans | 20 – 23 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2009 | W14 | Houston Texans | 34 – 7 | Seattle Seahawks |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tory Horton | WR | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 11/20g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 13/24g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 7/18g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 45' |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | George Holani | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bobo | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/15g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |

**Houston Texans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nico Collins | WR | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Nick Chubb | RB | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Woody Marks | RB | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Higgins | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Noel | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Braxton Berrios | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | C.J. Stroud | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Bryant | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Houston Texans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Nico Collins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Nick Chubb 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Texans: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: W.Anderson, W.Marks

**Seattle Seahawks** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ AJ Barner — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1572 · Houston Texans 1547 · ELO difference: 24 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | Houston Texans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 74 | 60 | Seattle Seahawks +14 |
| Receiving Corps | 67 | 54 | Seattle Seahawks +13 |
| Backfield | 49 | 52 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 61 | 54 | Seattle Seahawks +7 |
| Secondary | 56 | 59 | Even |
| Special Teams | 69 | 67 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Houston Texans |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Houston Texans predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-21 02:00 UTC (latest tip update)