# Los Angeles Chargers v Indianapolis Colts — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Chargers 24 – 38 Indianapolis Colts

_Indianapolis Colts bolt past Los Angeles Chargers._

Half time: 3 – 23 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 71% / Indianapolis Colts 29% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 20 Oct, 07:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston (32' Tipped ⚡), Keenan Allen (39' Tipped ⚡), Gadsden (47') · Indianapolis Colts: Ja'Sir Taylor (3' Tipped ⚡), Michael Pittman (15' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Warren (21'), Ja'Sir Taylor (33' Tipped ⚡), Ja'Sir Taylor (42' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 71% | Lost |
| Indianapolis Colts | 29% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Oct 2025, 07:05 am_

Los Angeles Chargers 24–38 Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 7 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Indianapolis Colts led before most people had found their seats and never gave it back. Jonathan Taylor opened the scoring in the first quarter, and by half-time the margin had blown out from six points to twenty. That's the story of this one in a single number: Los Angeles Chargers went to the sheds down 23-3, and everything after was a Chargers side trying to climb out of a hole that deep.

They actually had a go. Quentin Johnston got them within 14 early in the third, Keenan Allen trimmed it to 15 not long after, and Oronde Gadsden II's touchdown in the fourth made it 23-38 with plenty of clock left. Problem was, Indianapolis had an answer every time the gap looked like closing. Taylor scored again in between those two Chargers majors, and by the end of the third quarter it was 17-38. The Chargers were never further than three scores away from level, but they were also never one score away from the lead. That's a hard place to play from.

The yardage sheet reads like a mismatch went the wrong way. Los Angeles actually outgained Indianapolis 474 to 408 and picked up more first downs, 42 to 37. None of it mattered much next to the two turnovers Los Angeles coughed up against zero from the Colts, and an offensive EPA split of 22 to 6.5 in Indianapolis's favour. Efficiency won the day over volume, comfortably.

Justin Herbert threw for 420 yards on 37 of 55, with three touchdowns to his name, but the two interceptions cancelled out a fair chunk of that production. Daniel Jones was tidier if less busy, 23 from 34 for 288 and two scores. Jonathan Taylor was the difference-maker with the ball in hand: 94 yards on 16 carries and three touchdowns, the kind of backfield performance the pre-match ratings all but promised, with Indianapolis's backfield rated 91 to the Chargers' 47 coming in. The Chargers had their own bright spot in Gadsden, who caught seven for 164 and a touchdown, but one big night from a receiver doesn't offset three from a bell-cow back.

The pass rush numbers tell the rest of it. Indianapolis got home three times to Los Angeles's one, and that pressure差erence lines up with the quarterback rating gap of 70 to 46 pre-match, Jones protected and unbothered while Herbert had to work under duress for most of his 55 throws.

Form-wise this tracked closer to what Indianapolis have been doing than what Los Angeles have. The Colts came in averaging 32.2 points a game and winning by better than 10 a week across their last five, riding a WWLWW run. The Chargers were

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 17 | 15 | 0 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| **474** | Total Yards | 408 |
| **420** | Passing Yards | 288 |
| 54 | Rushing Yards | **120** |
| **42** | First Downs | 37 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| 6.5 | Offensive EPA | **22** |

**Model Report Card**

Indianapolis Colts defied the model's 71% prediction for Los Angeles Chargers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.2 but the actual margin was 14 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 18 points above Alan Eck's career average of 44. Indianapolis Colts bucked the trend, Los Angeles Chargers historically win 50% of games under Alan Eck, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Alan Eck's 69% career home-team win rate, the away side Indianapolis Colts prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.74 (edge +13.9%) — model probability 71.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 0 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Chargers here: 71% to see off Indianapolis Colts. Form leans Indianapolis Colts' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Los Angeles Chargers.

On paper Indianapolis Colts shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Pass Rush and Secondary. The model still sides with Los Angeles Chargers, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Los Angeles Chargers to win, not to win big.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Indianapolis Colts took the most recent meeting 38-24 in 2025 Week 7.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Justin Herbert starts under centre for Los Angeles Chargers, Daniel Jones for Indianapolis Colts, with Jim Harbaugh and Shane Steichen calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Los Angeles Chargers $1.74 and Indianapolis Colts $2.14, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Chargers 8 · Indianapolis Colts 4 |
| Last meeting | Indianapolis Colts 38-24 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 2-6 away |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · Daniel Jones |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · Shane Steichen |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $1.74 · Indianapolis Colts $2.14 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Chargers

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2W–2L | 50% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0W–1L | 0% |

Avg total: 44.4 pts · Home win %: 69% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alan Eck officiates, Los Angeles Chargers have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than Indianapolis Colts's 0 from 1 (0%). Home teams win 69% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (1 games for Indianapolis Colts).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 32.2pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -0.8pts | Avg Margin | 10.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W2 W · W3 W · W4 L · W5 L · W6 W | 20.0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | W2 W · W3 W · W4 L · W5 W · W6 W | 32.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W7 | Los Angeles Chargers | 24 – 38 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2022 | W16 | Indianapolis Colts | 3 – 20 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2019 | W1 | Los Angeles Chargers | 30 – 24 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2016 | W3 | Indianapolis Colts | 26 – 22 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2013 | W6 | Los Angeles Chargers | 19 – 9 | Indianapolis Colts |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/19g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 13/31g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 6/11g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/18g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Hassan Haskins | RB | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/43g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nyheim Hines | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Dissly | TE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 10% | — | — |

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 8 in 6g | 14/10g (0·3·2·1·0·1·3·0·3·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.61 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 33' 42' |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $13.00 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Laquon Treadwell | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Indianapolis Colts** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 1 pass) · model 53% · **scored Q1, Q3, Q3**
- ⚡ Michael Pittman — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Ameer Abdullah — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Colts: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Warren

**Los Angeles Chargers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Keenan Allen 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Chargers: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: O.Gadsden

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1532 · Indianapolis Colts 1528 · ELO difference: 4 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Indianapolis Colts | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 46 | 70 | Indianapolis Colts +24 |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 55 | Even |
| Backfield | 47 | 91 | Indianapolis Colts +44 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 54 | 59 | Indianapolis Colts +5 |
| Special Teams | 69 | 62 | Los Angeles Chargers +7 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Los Angeles Chargers favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-19 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)