# Kansas City Chiefs v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Kansas City Chiefs 31 – 0 Las Vegas Raiders

_Kansas City Chiefs overpower Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 21 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 96% / Las Vegas Raiders 4% · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Mon, 20 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Kansas City Chiefs: Rashee Rice (9' Tipped ⚡), Marquise Brown (21' Tipped ⚡), Rashee Rice (30' Tipped ⚡), Isiah Pacheco (36') · Las Vegas Raiders: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 96% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.6 predicted → 31 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Kansas City Chiefs 31–0 Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 7 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-one points on the board before the Raiders had managed a first down worth talking about, and the second half only added detail, not doubt. Kansas City led 21-0 at the break and closed it out 31-0, adding a single Isiah Pacheco score in the third quarter before spending the fourth just running the clock down on a game that was already decided.

That halftime margin wasn't a fluke building to a collapse, it was the story. Rashee Rice opened the scoring with 6:02 left in the first, Marquise Brown made it 13-0 early in the second, and Rice added his second with 13 seconds left before the break to push it to 20-0. By the time Pacheco crossed again at the 9:05 mark of the third for a 27-0 lead, Las Vegas hadn't sniffed the end zone all night, and they never did.

The yardage gap tells you why. Kansas City finished with 438 total yards to the Raiders' 100, a gap so wide it barely needs the first-down count to back it up, but the first-down count backs it up anyway: 44 to 4. Kansas City's offensive EPA sat at 16.6 against Las Vegas's minus-20.1, a swing of well over 36 points of efficiency in one team's favour. That's not a close game that got away from someone. That's one side running its structure and the other side unable to build a single sustained drive.

Patrick Mahomes went 26-of-35 for 286 yards and three touchdowns, working the short and intermediate stuff behind a run game that chewed up 152 yards, over a third of Kansas City's total output. Pacheco led all rushers with 57 yards on 15 carries and the one score, and Travis Kelce was the top target on the night with just 3 catches for 54 yards, which tells you how spread the damage was rather than how quiet Kelce was. Geno Smith managed 10-of-16 for 67 yards for Las Vegas, numbers that speak to a team that never found any rhythm to build from.

The pre-match shape of this one lines up with what showed up on the field. Kansas City came in rated stronger at every position group, quarterback 61 to 37 the widest of the lot, and that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect it to, in a passing game the Raiders had no answer for. Las Vegas arrived on the back of a 1-4 run and conceding 27.2 points a game on average, Kansas City on a 3-2 run at plus-7.4 margin, and none of that form line got challenged tonight.

Alphr's model had Kansas City at 96 percent to win here, which needs no defending. The margin projection is the one that undersold it, tipped at 16.6 and the total pegged at 46. The Raiders' shutout meant the final tally landed 15 points under that projected total, and the actual margin nearly doubled the pick. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one's a clean example of getting the shape of the result right while the scale of it ran well past the number.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 31 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Kansas City Chiefs | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **438** | Total Yards | 100 |
| **286** | Passing Yards | 75 |
| **152** | Rushing Yards | 25 |
| **44** | First Downs | 4 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **16.6** | Offensive EPA | -20.1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Kansas City Chiefs to win at 96% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.6 but the actual margin was 31 points. The game's 31 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 31 points was 15 points below Clete Blakeman's career average of 46.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.11 (edge +5.5%) — model probability 96.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 17 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Kansas City Chiefs here: 96% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Kansas City Chiefs sit 255 ELO points clear, 1642 to 1387. Form leans Kansas City Chiefs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Kansas City Chiefs own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Kansas City Chiefs by 16.6, with the two sides combining for about 46. Kansas City Chiefs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Kansas City Chiefs have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Las Vegas Raiders took the most recent meeting 14-12 in 2025 Week 18.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 5-4 at home, averaging 21.3 points for and 19.3 against.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Patrick Mahomes starts under centre for Kansas City Chiefs, Geno Smith for Las Vegas Raiders, with Andy Reid and Pete Carroll calling the shots.

The market has Kansas City Chiefs favourites, Kansas City Chiefs $1.11 and Las Vegas Raiders $7.25, with the spread at Kansas City Chiefs -13.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Kansas City Chiefs 9 · Las Vegas Raiders 3 |
| Last meeting | Las Vegas Raiders 14-12 (2025) |
| Kansas City Chiefs 2025 so far | 6-11 · 5-4 home |
| Kansas City Chiefs scoring | 21.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Patrick Mahomes · Geno Smith |
| Head coaches | Andy Reid · Pete Carroll |
| Market | Kansas City Chiefs $1.11 · Las Vegas Raiders $7.25 |
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -13.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11W–8L | 58% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4W–3L | 57% |

Avg total: 46.4 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Clete Blakeman, Kansas City Chiefs 11W–8L (58%) and Las Vegas Raiders 4W–3L (57%). Small sample (7 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Kansas City Chiefs | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.8pts | Avg Score | 16.6pts |
| 19.4pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 7.4pts | Avg Margin | -10.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | W2 L · W3 W · W4 W · W5 L · W6 W | 26.8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W2 L · W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W6 W | 16.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Kansas City Chiefs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Las Vegas Raiders | 14 – 12 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2025 | W7 | Kansas City Chiefs | 31 – 0 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2024 | W13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 19 – 17 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2024 | W8 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 – 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2023 | W16 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Patrick Mahomes | QB | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/14g | 10/44g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 49% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kareem Hunt | RB | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/5g | 6/12g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Marquise Brown | WR | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/2g | 3/6g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |
| – | Tyquan Thornton | WR | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Travis Kelce | TE | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 11/18g | 22/42g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Isiah Pacheco | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 9/28g | 34% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 2/21g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Worthy | WR | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 6/12g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brashard Smith | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gardner Minshew | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nikko Remigio | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Gray | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/34g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rashee Rice | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 5/11g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 30' |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 5 in 6g | 5/6g (1·0·0·3·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·3·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 22% | 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Carter Runyon | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kenny Pickett | QB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Kansas City Chiefs** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Patrick Mahomes 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 49% · no TD
- ⚡ Xavier Worthy 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Rashee Rice — 2 TDs in last 4 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Marquise Brown — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Kareem Hunt — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Chiefs: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: I.Pacheco

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Kansas City Chiefs 1642 · Las Vegas Raiders 1387 · ELO difference: 255 in favour of Kansas City Chiefs

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Kansas City Chiefs | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 61 | 37 | Kansas City Chiefs +24 |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 53 | Kansas City Chiefs +11 |
| Backfield | 51 | 45 | Kansas City Chiefs +6 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 57 | 47 | Kansas City Chiefs +10 |
| Special Teams | 60 | 57 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 96%** — Kansas City Chiefs predicted to win by 17 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-19 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)