# Jacksonville Jaguars v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – 35 Los Angeles Rams

_Los Angeles Rams bulldoze Jacksonville Jaguars._

Half time: 0 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 39% / Los Angeles Rams 61% · TIAA Bank Stadium · Mon, 20 Oct, 12:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Hunter (51') · Los Angeles Rams: Konata Mumpfield (9'), Davante Adams (14' Tipped ⚡), Davante Adams (26' Tipped ⚡), Terrance Ferguson (49'), Davante Adams (55' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 61% | Won |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.9 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Oct 2025, 12:30 am_

Jacksonville Jaguars 7–35 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 7 at TIAA Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jacksonville never got to chase, because there was nothing to chase toward. Los Angeles Rams scored inside the opening seven minutes and never trailed, and the scoreboard pressure only ever ran one way. Final score: Jacksonville Jaguars 7, Los Angeles Rams 35. This wasn't close at any point that mattered.

The timeline tells you exactly how it went. Konata Mumpfield opened the scoring with 6:43 left in the first quarter, and Davante Adams struck again before the quarter was out, making it 0-14 at the break between periods. Adams added a second in the second quarter to push it to 0-20, and by half-time it was 0-21. Jacksonville had nothing to show for the opening thirty minutes. The third quarter passed with the score frozen at 0-21, no movement either way, which tells you Los Angeles Rams were happy to sit on the lead rather than pile on immediately.

The fourth quarter is where the margin blew out properly. Terrance Ferguson stretched it to 0-27 with 11:19 left, and Jacksonville finally got on the board through Travis Hunter at the 9:13 mark, making it 7-28. But Adams wasn't done: his third touchdown with 5:03 remaining sealed it at 34-7 before the extra point made it 35-7 final. By the time Jacksonville scored, the game had long been decided.

Strip away the final margin and the yardage sheet tells a strange story. Jacksonville actually outgained Los Angeles Rams 390 to 271 total yards, and Trevor Lawrence threw for 296 yards on 48 attempts. None of it translated to points. Matthew Stafford needed just 33 attempts for 182 yards but turned it into five touchdowns against Lawrence's one. Offensive EPA had Los Angeles Rams at plus 7 and Jacksonville at minus 11.9, and that gap is the real story here: Jacksonville moved the ball between the twenties without doing anything with it, while every Rams possession that mattered ended in six points.

The pass rush explains a good chunk of that efficiency gap. Los Angeles Rams sacked Lawrence seven times, Jacksonville managed zero sacks of Stafford. That lines up with the pre-match numbers, which had the Rams' pass rush rated 64 against Jacksonville's 52. Lawrence had to work through constant pressure to rack up his 296 yards, while Stafford operated in relative comfort and picked apart a Jacksonville secondary rated 55 against the Rams' 59.

Individually, Kyren Williams led all rushers with 54 yards on 12 carries, modest numbers but enough given Los Angeles Rams' backfield rating of 57 against Jacksonville's 52 coming in. Parker Washington was Jacksonville's most productive weapon with 4 catches for 52 yards, but a handful of catches in a blowout doesn't move a scoreboard.

Alphr's model had Los Angeles Rams as 61% favourites before kickoff, and got the winner right. Where it missed badly was the margin: the pre-match projection had Los Angeles Rams by just 1.9 points, nowhere near the actual 28-point gap. The total score projection of 41 points held up fine, just one point off the actual 42. Sometimes the model nails the shape of the game and still gets blindsided by how one-sided it turns.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 14 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 35 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| **390** | Total Yards | 271 |
| **296** | Passing Yards | 182 |
| **94** | Rushing Yards | 89 |
| 31 | First Downs | **32** |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **7** |
| -11.9 | Offensive EPA | **7** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.9 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 42, within 1 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adrian Hill officiated this match (112 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adrian Hill's career average of 45. Los Angeles Rams's victory aligns with Adrian Hill's historical trend, Los Angeles Rams have a 25% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.60 (edge -1.6%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 2 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Los Angeles Rams are the call at 61%, but Jacksonville Jaguars stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 119 ELO points clear, 1588 to 1469.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 1.9, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Los Angeles Rams, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Los Angeles Rams have won 5 of the last 6 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 35-7 in 2025 Week 7.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Trevor Lawrence starts under centre for Jacksonville Jaguars, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Liam Coen and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Jacksonville Jaguars $2.40 and Los Angeles Rams $1.60, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -3 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Jacksonville Jaguars 1 · Los Angeles Rams 5 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 35-7 (2025) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 7-2 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Sean McVay |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $2.40 · Los Angeles Rams $1.60 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -3 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Adrian Hill |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Rams

**Adrian Hill** — 112 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Adrian Hill | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0W–8L | 0% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1W–3L | 25% |

Avg total: 44.5 pts · Home win %: 48% · Home bias: Neutral

When Adrian Hill officiates, Los Angeles Rams have won 1 of 4 games (25%), significantly stronger than Jacksonville Jaguars's 0 from 8 (0%). Small sample (4 games for Los Angeles Rams).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.6pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 20.2pts |
| 0.6pts | Avg Margin | 5.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W2 L · W3 W · W4 W · W5 W · W6 L | 22.6 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W2 W · W3 L · W4 W · W5 L · W6 W | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 – 35 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2021 | W13 | Los Angeles Rams | 37 – 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2017 | W6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 – 27 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2013 | W5 | Los Angeles Rams | 34 – 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2009 | W6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 – 20 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIAA Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 10/26g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/11g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Hunter Long | TE | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/12g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 8/31g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 3 in 6g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 6/4g | 4/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.03 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 26' 55' |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q1, Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Tyler Higbee — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Mumpfield, T.Ferguson

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Dyami Brown — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Hunter

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1469 · Los Angeles Rams 1588 · ELO difference: 119 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 51 | 52 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 48 | Even |
| Backfield | 52 | 57 | Los Angeles Rams +5 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 64 | Los Angeles Rams +12 |
| Secondary | 55 | 59 | Even |
| Special Teams | 54 | 60 | Los Angeles Rams +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-19 13:30 UTC (latest tip update)