# Detroit Lions v Tampa Bay Buccaneers — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Detroit Lions 24 – 9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

_Detroit Lions roar past Tampa Bay Buccaneers._

Half time: 14 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Detroit Lions 53% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 47% · Ford Field · Tue, 21 Oct, 10:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown (3' Tipped ⚡), Jahmyr Gibbs (24' Tipped ⚡), Jahmyr Gibbs (41' Tipped ⚡) · Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tez Johnson (37')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 53% | Won |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.4 predicted → 15 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 Oct 2025, 10:00 am_

Detroit Lions 24–9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 7 at Ford Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Detroit Lions beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-9 at Ford Field. Look at first downs, though, and it's a dead heat, 24 apiece. Same turnovers, two each. Same sacks, four each. On paper this was even. On the field it wasn't close.

The gap was in expected points. Detroit ran an offensive EPA of minus 7.8 to Tampa Bay's minus 23.5, and that 15.7-point swing is the real story of the afternoon. The Buccaneers moved the chains often enough to stay in the box score, they just didn't do anything useful with the ball once they had it.

Detroit got on the board early through Amon-Ra St. Brown and led 7-0 after the first quarter. Jahmyr Gibbs made it 13-0 with six minutes left in the second, and Detroit took a 14-3 lead into the break. Tampa Bay's only touchdown, from Tez Johnson, came with 8:58 left in the third and briefly made it 14-9. Four minutes later Gibbs scored his second, Detroit led 20-9, and the game was as good as over.

Gibbs was the difference. 136 yards on 17 carries, two touchdowns, and he was a big reason Detroit ran for 164 yards against a Tampa Bay defence that held them to just 41. That's a rushing split of 40% of Detroit's total offence versus barely a whisper from the Buccaneers, and it lines up with the pre-match numbers: Detroit's backfield rated 73 against Tampa Bay's 60, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect.

Through the air the yardage was tight, 241 for Jared Goff against 228 for Baker Mayfield, but the efficiency wasn't. Goff needed 29 attempts to get there, completing 20 with one touchdown and one interception. Mayfield threw it 50 times for the same output, one touchdown, one pick. St. Brown was the best receiver on the field regardless of jersey, six catches for 86 yards and a score, matching what his 73 receiving-corps rating suggested he'd do against a Tampa Bay unit rated 59.

Tampa Bay's issue wasn't heart, it was field position and finishing. Mayfield's 50 attempts speak to a team playing from behind and throwing to catch up, not a team controlling tempo. Their special teams rating of 76 against Detroit's 57 was the one category where the roles reversed pre-match, but it never showed up loudly enough to change the arithmetic.

Alphr's model had Detroit favoured at 53% with a 4.4-point margin off ratings of 1642 to 1583. The lean was right, the size wasn't. A 15-point win is more than three times the predicted gap, even if the total of 33 points landed well under the forecast 53. Detroit's form coming in, an average margin of 12.6 points against Tampa Bay's 2.2, was arguably the better clue than the model's number crunching alone.

Wins and misses, all of it. This one called the right team, just not how thoroughly they'd do it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Detroit Lions | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| **405** | Total Yards | 269 |
| **241** | Passing Yards | 228 |
| **164** | Rushing Yards | 41 |
| 24 | First Downs | 24 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4 | Sacks Made | 4 |
| **-7.8** | Offensive EPA | -23.5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Detroit Lions to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 4.4 was reasonable against the actual 15-point result. The game's 33 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 53. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 33 points was 13 points below John Hussey's career average of 46. Detroit Lions's victory aligns with John Hussey's historical trend, Detroit Lions have a 67% win rate under this referee. Detroit Lions's home victory fits John Hussey's profile, home teams win 66% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.36 (edge -20.3%) — model probability 53.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 4 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The model can't split them, landing on Detroit Lions at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Detroit Lions sit 59 ELO points clear, 1642 to 1583.

Detroit Lions own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Detroit Lions by 4.4, with the two sides combining for about 53. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Detroit Lions have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Detroit Lions took the most recent meeting 24-9 in 2025 Week 7.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Jared Goff starts under centre for Detroit Lions, Baker Mayfield for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Dan Campbell and Todd Bowles calling the shots.

The market has Detroit Lions favourites, Detroit Lions $1.36 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.25, with the spread at Detroit Lions -6 and the total at 54.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Detroit Lions 7 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 |
| Last meeting | Detroit Lions 24-9 (2025) |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-3 home |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-5 away |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jared Goff · Baker Mayfield |
| Head coaches | Dan Campbell · Todd Bowles |
| Market | Detroit Lions $1.36 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.25 |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -6 · total 54.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Detroit Lions

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 8W–4L | 67% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4W–7L | 36% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

When John Hussey officiates, Detroit Lions have won 8 of 12 games (67%), significantly stronger than Tampa Bay Buccaneers's 4 from 11 (36%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Detroit Lions | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 35.6pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 23.0pts | Avg Conceded | 26.2pts |
| 12.6pts | Avg Margin | 2.2pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | W2 W · W3 W · W4 W · W5 W · W6 L | 35.6 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W2 W · W3 W · W4 L · W5 W · W6 W | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Detroit Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W7 | Detroit Lions | 24 – 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2024 | W2 | Detroit Lions | 16 – 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2023 | DIV | Detroit Lions | 31 – 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2023 | W6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 – 20 | Detroit Lions |
| 2020 | W16 | Detroit Lions | 7 – 47 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ford Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·0·3·1·2·0·0) | 2/3g | 23/37g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.91 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 5 in 6g | 13/10g (1·1·4·2·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 23/21g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.50 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 41' |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 15/23g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.76 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brock Wright | TE | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 7/26g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 8/21g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Sam LaPorta | TE | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 14/21g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/34g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/40g | 4% | — | — |

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 5 in 6g | 5/6g (2·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mike Evans | WR | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 3/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ryan Miller | WR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Mike Evans 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Johnson

**Detroit Lions** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ David Montgomery — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Sam LaPorta — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Lions: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Detroit Lions 1642 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1583 · ELO difference: 59 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Detroit Lions | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 73 | 64 | Detroit Lions +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 73 | 59 | Detroit Lions +14 |
| Backfield | 73 | 60 | Detroit Lions +13 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 53 | Detroit Lions +5 |
| Secondary | 48 | 63 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15 |
| Special Teams | 57 | 76 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Detroit Lions predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-20 23:00 UTC (latest tip update)