# Denver Broncos v New York Giants — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 33 – 32 New York Giants

_Denver Broncos hit back to buck off New York Giants from 13 down._

Half time: 0 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 94% / New York Giants 6% · Empower Field at Mile High · Mon, 20 Oct, 07:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Troy Franklin (46'), Bo Nix (55'), RJ Harvey (57'), Bo Nix (59') · New York Giants: Daniel Bellinger (8'), Cam Skattebo (22' Tipped ⚡), Tracy (43'), Theo Johnson (50'), Jaxson Dart (60' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 94% | Won |
| New York Giants | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.2 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs New York Giants Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Oct 2025, 07:05 am_

Denver Broncos 33–32 New York Giants in NFL Week 7 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Denver Broncos won this 33-32, but for the better part of three quarters they were nowhere near the contest that scoreline suggests. New York Giants led 13-0 at the half and had it out to 19-0 with 2:47 left in the third quarter. This was as one-sided a beating as the Broncos have absorbed all season, right up until it wasn't.

The Giants built that buffer on touchdowns from Daniel Bellinger, Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr., with Jaxson Dart moving the ball well enough through the air that the gap looked genuinely safe. Dart finished 15-of-33 for 283 yards and 3 touchdowns, throwing for more yards than Bo Nix on ten fewer completions. On paper, this was the Giants' game to lose.

They found a way. Denver's fourth quarter was the whole match compressed into one frantic stretch: five touchdowns change hands inside fourteen minutes, starting with Troy Franklin at the 14:14 mark and finishing with Bo Nix's second of the day at 1:56 to put Denver up 29-26. New York and Theo Johnson had already replied once in between, and Jaxson Dart got the Giants back within one at 30-32 with 40 seconds to go. Denver still had enough in the tank to get home 33-32.

The stat line explains how a 19-point deficit became an escape act rather than a collapse. Denver ran for 142 yards to New York's 119, picked up 38 first downs to 31, and got home on the quarterback four times to the Giants' two. New York's lone turnover, against none for Denver, is the kind of margin that decides one-point games, and this was one. Offensive EPA actually favoured New York, 8.6 to 7, which tells you the Giants moved the ball efficiently for long stretches. They just didn't have the ball at the end.

J.K. Dobbins led all runners with 81 yards on 14 carries, the kind of ground game the raw yardage numbers point to but no single highlight fully captures. Wan'Dale Robinson was the busiest target on the day with 6 catches for 95 yards, proof the Giants' passing game had answers even as the scoreboard turned on them.

None of this fits neatly with what went in. Denver carried the better rating almost everywhere: quarterback 66 to 48, pass rush 63 to 52, backfield 54 to 48, and they arrived off three wins in five with an average winning margin of 5.4 points against a Giants side sitting on minus 1.6 over the same stretch. Extra rest sat with the Giants, ten days to Denver's seven, and for three quarters that looked like the difference. Then it stopped mattering.

Alphr's model backed Denver at 94 percent and got the winner right, expecting them by 9.2 in a projected 48-point contest. The lopsided early stretch never showed up in that number, and the final gap of one point undersold how far off script this went before Denver clawed it back. The total landed at 65, seventeen more than projected, which is the real story of the day: two sides trading big plays until the clock ran out on New York first.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 33 |
| New York Giants | 7 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **421** | Total Yards | 402 |
| 279 | Passing Yards | **283** |
| **142** | Rushing Yards | 119 |
| **38** | First Downs | 31 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| 7 | Offensive EPA | **8.6** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 94% probability. The predicted margin of 9.2 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The game's 65 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 48. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 39.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The combined score of 65 points was 20 points above Brad Allen's career average of 45. Denver Broncos's victory aligns with Brad Allen's historical trend, Denver Broncos have a 63% win rate under this referee. Denver Broncos's home victory fits Brad Allen's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.24 (edge +12.8%) — model probability 93.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 9 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 94% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 196 ELO points clear, 1593 to 1397. Form leans Denver Broncos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for New York Giants.

Denver Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 9.2, with the two sides combining for about 48. Denver Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Denver Broncos have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and Denver Broncos took the most recent meeting 33-32 in 2025 Week 7.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 1-8 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Jaxson Dart for New York Giants, with Sean Payton and Brian Daboll calling the shots.

New York Giants come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Denver Broncos $1.24 and New York Giants $4.30, with the spread at Denver Broncos -7.5 and the total at 39.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Denver Broncos 5 · New York Giants 2 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 33-32 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 1-8 away |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Jaxson Dart |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Brian Daboll |
| Rest | Denver Broncos 7d · New York Giants 10d |
| Market | Denver Broncos $1.24 · New York Giants $4.30 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -7.5 · total 39.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Denver Broncos

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 5W–3L | 63% |
| New York Giants | 4W–9L | 31% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Allen officiates, Denver Broncos have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than New York Giants's 4 from 13 (31%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 23.0pts |
| 16.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.6pts |
| 5.4pts | Avg Margin | -1.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W2 L · W3 L · W4 W · W5 W · W6 W | 22.0 |
| New York Giants | W2 L · W3 L · W4 W · W5 L · W6 W | 23.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W7 | Denver Broncos | 33 – 32 | New York Giants |
| 2021 | W1 | New York Giants | 13 – 27 | Denver Broncos |
| 2017 | W6 | Denver Broncos | 10 – 23 | New York Giants |
| 2013 | W2 | New York Giants | 23 – 41 | Denver Broncos |
| 2009 | W12 | Denver Broncos | 26 – 6 | New York Giants |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 2/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.94 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.40 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 16/41g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (0·2·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/18g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/10g | 21% | — | 🏉 55' 59' |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Nate Adkins | TE | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/12g | 21% | — | — |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 17% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/10g | 18% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cam Skattebo | RB | 5 in 6g | 5/6g (0·1·1·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.20 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Beaux Collins | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jalin Hyatt | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/12g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Thomas Fidone II | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $9.00 AI 24% ✓ Scored | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Giants** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Cam Skattebo 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 45% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Jaxson Dart 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyrone Tracy Jr. — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Giants: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Bellinger, T.Johnson

**Denver Broncos** (2 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Franklin, B.Nix, R.Harvey

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1593 · New York Giants 1397 · ELO difference: 196 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | New York Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 66 | 48 | Denver Broncos +18 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 52 | Even |
| Backfield | 54 | 48 | Denver Broncos +6 |
| Pass Rush | 63 | 52 | Denver Broncos +11 |
| Secondary | 57 | 60 | Even |
| Special Teams | 56 | 48 | Denver Broncos +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | New York Giants |

**Model Confidence: 94%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-19 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)