# Cleveland Browns v Miami Dolphins — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cleveland Browns 31 – 6 Miami Dolphins

_Cleveland Browns run riot over Miami Dolphins._

Half time: 17 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cleveland Browns 57% / Miami Dolphins 43% · FirstEnergy Stadium · Mon, 20 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cleveland Browns: Quinshon Judkins (19' Tipped ⚡), Quinshon Judkins (24' Tipped ⚡), Tyson Campbell (31'), Quinshon Judkins (50' Tipped ⚡) · Miami Dolphins: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 57% | Won |
| Miami Dolphins | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 25 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Cleveland Browns 31–6 Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 7 at FirstEnergy Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Quinshon Judkins scored twice in the space of five minutes in the second quarter, and that was that. Cleveland led just 3-0 after the first term, a scrappy, low-event opening, before Judkins crashed over at the 11:28 mark and again at 6:08 to make it 16-3. Miami got a field goal back to trail 17-6 at the break, but the contest was already decided in that burst. Cleveland Browns closed it out 31-6 at FirstEnergy Stadium.

Judkins finished with a third touchdown in the fourth quarter, on his way to 84 yards on 25 carries. Three trips to the end zone, all his, in a game where Miami Dolphins didn't manage one. Tyler Campbell added the other Cleveland touchdown early in the third to push the margin to 24-6 and put the game out of reach.

The yardage sheet says this should have been close. Miami actually outgained Cleveland 252 to 220, with 153 passing yards to 116 and both sides tied at 17 first downs. Read in isolation, that's a competitive box score. Read alongside the turnover column, it explains everything: Miami coughed it up three times, Cleveland none. Tua Tagovailoa threw three interceptions to go with his 12-of-23 for 100 yards, while Dillon Gabriel was economical rather than explosive, 13-of-18 for 116. Cleveland's pass rush got home four times to Miami's two, and the Offensive EPA gap, minus 6.2 for Cleveland against minus 31.8 for Miami, tells you which offence actually did something useful with its snaps.

Miami came in with the better roster on paper. Higher-rated quarterback, 57 to 40, a stronger receiving corps at 59 to 44, the edge at special teams too. None of it mattered once the ball started going the other way three times. A backfield that was rated only marginally ahead of Cleveland's, 58 to 56, watched Judkins run through it for the difference in the game.

Form lines pointed to a tighter finish than this. Cleveland arrived at 13.2 points a game and conceding 25.8, a minus-12.6 average margin, the sort of side that loses more than it wins, and their last five reads LWLLL. Miami's numbers were healthier, 25.2 scored and a minus-3 margin, but their own run was LLWLL, hardly imposing. On the day, none of that history showed up. Cleveland outplayed the version of themselves the form guide described.

Alphr's model had Cleveland as 57 percent favourites, so the win itself was no shock. The margin was another matter. Pre-match, the read was Miami by 0.9 on a combined total of 29, practically a pick'em. Instead Cleveland won by 25, and Miami's own three-turnover afternoon did most of the damage to that projection. The win call held up. The margin call didn't get within cooee of it.

Miami leave with 252 yards and nothing to show for them, kept off the scoreboard entirely and beaten by field position handed over on a plate. Cleveland leave with a game that looked shaky through one quarter and turned into a laugher inside five minutes of the second.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 220 | Total Yards | **252** |
| 116 | Passing Yards | **153** |
| **104** | Rushing Yards | 99 |
| 17 | First Downs | 17 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **-6.2** | Offensive EPA | -31.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cleveland Browns to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 25 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 8 points below Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45. Cleveland Browns bucked the trend, Miami Dolphins historically win 100% of games under Shawn Hochuli, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cleveland Browns to win @ $1.68 (edge -2.3%) — model probability 57.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 34.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 1 · Predicted total: 29

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Cleveland Browns are the call at 57%, but Miami Dolphins stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: Miami Dolphins sit 53 ELO points clear, 1421 to 1368, so the model is backing Cleveland Browns against the ratings gap.

On paper Miami Dolphins shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The model still sides with Cleveland Browns, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. Lean Cleveland Browns, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Cleveland Browns have won 6 of the last 11 between these two, and Cleveland Browns took the most recent meeting 31-6 in 2025 Week 7.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

Dillon Gabriel starts under centre for Cleveland Browns, Tua Tagovailoa for Miami Dolphins, with Kevin Stefanski and Mike McDaniel calling the shots.

The market has Cleveland Browns favourites, Cleveland Browns $1.68 and Miami Dolphins $2.24, with the spread at Cleveland Browns -2.5 and the total at 34.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | Cleveland Browns 6 · Miami Dolphins 5 |
| Last meeting | Cleveland Browns 31-6 (2025) |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 home |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 2-6 away |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Dillon Gabriel · Tua Tagovailoa |
| Head coaches | Kevin Stefanski · Mike McDaniel |
| Market | Cleveland Browns $1.68 · Miami Dolphins $2.24 |
| Spread | Cleveland Browns -2.5 · total 34.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Miami Dolphins

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 5W–4L | 56% |
| Miami Dolphins | 5W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 45.2 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Hochuli officiates, Miami Dolphins have won 5 of 5 games (100%), significantly stronger than Cleveland Browns's 5 from 9 (56%). Small sample (5 games for Miami Dolphins).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 13.2pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.2pts |
| -12.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | W2 L · W3 W · W4 L · W5 L · W6 L | 13.2 |
| Miami Dolphins | W2 L · W3 L · W4 W · W5 L · W6 L | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Miami Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W7 | Cleveland Browns | 31 – 6 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2024 | W17 | Cleveland Browns | 3 – 20 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2022 | W10 | Miami Dolphins | 39 – 17 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2019 | W12 | Cleveland Browns | 41 – 24 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2016 | W3 | Miami Dolphins | 30 – 24 | Cleveland Browns |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FirstEnergy Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quinshon Judkins | RB | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.80 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 19' 24' 50' |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Blake Whiteheart | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Dillon Gabriel | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gage Larvadain | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jamari Thrash | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jerome Ford | RB | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/23g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/11g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Malachi Corley | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 49% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darren Waller | TE | 4 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Dee Eskridge | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Julian Hill | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Quinn Ewers | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tanner Conner | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Miami Dolphins** (3 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 2 pass) · model 49% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaylen Waddle 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Darren Waller — 4 TDs in last 3 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**Cleveland Browns** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Quinshon Judkins 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q2, Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Jerry Jeudy 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Harold Fannin Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Browns: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Campbell

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Miami Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1421 vs 1368), but the market favours Cleveland Browns (@1.68). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cleveland Browns 1368 · Miami Dolphins 1421 · ELO difference: 53 in favour of Miami Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cleveland Browns | Miami Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 40 | 57 | Miami Dolphins +17 |
| Receiving Corps | 44 | 59 | Miami Dolphins +15 |
| Backfield | 56 | 58 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 55 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 51 | 56 | Miami Dolphins +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Cleveland Browns predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 29 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-19 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)