# Cincinnati Bengals v Pittsburgh Steelers — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cincinnati Bengals 33 – 31 Pittsburgh Steelers

_Cincinnati Bengals survive a scare against Pittsburgh Steelers._

Half time: 17 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 22% / Pittsburgh Steelers 78% · Paycor Stadium · Fri, 17 Oct, 11:15 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cincinnati Bengals: Ja'Marr Chase (26' Tipped ⚡), Tee Higgins (28' Tipped ⚡), Noah Fant (45') · Pittsburgh Steelers: Jonnu Smith (4' Tipped ⚡), Pat Freiermuth (42'), Darnell Washington (49'), Pat Freiermuth (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 78% | Lost |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 22% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Oct 2025, 11:15 am_

Cincinnati Bengals 33–31 Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 7 at Paycor Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cincinnati wanted the ball in its hands for as long as possible. Pittsburgh wanted every touch to count. Both approaches nearly got there, and the game came down to which team's philosophy had more left in the tank by the fourth quarter. Cincinnati finished with 484 total yards to Pittsburgh's 396 and a 40 to 31 edge in first downs, the product of a patient, methodical approach. Pittsburgh played for chunks and touchdowns, and it produced four passing scores from Aaron Rodgers. In the end it was Cincinnati's control of the ball that won out, 33-31, at Paycor Stadium.

Pittsburgh landed the first blow. Jonnu Smith scored with 11 minutes gone in the first quarter, and the Steelers led 7-0 at the end of the term, then 10-6 early in the second. Cincinnati's volume approach started to tell from there. Ja'Marr Chase got the Bengals on the board with just under five minutes left in the half, and Tee Higgins put them in front with 2:58 remaining. Cincinnati took a 17-10 lead into the break.

The third quarter went the other way. Pittsburgh dragged it back with Pat Freiermuth's first touchdown, making it 20-16, and the Steelers trailed just 20-17 heading into the final period. Then the fourth quarter turned into the shootout neither game plan really wanted. Noah Fant opened it with a score to push Cincinnati out to 26-17. Darnell Washington answered for Pittsburgh to make it 27-23. With 2:31 to go, Freiermuth's second touchdown of the night levelled things at 30-30. Cincinnati had the last word, closing out the 33-31 win.

The stat sheet explains why Pittsburgh's high-risk approach came up just short. The Steelers turned it over twice, Cincinnati didn't turn it over at all. Pittsburgh also managed two sacks to Cincinnati's none, but it wasn't enough to offset the yardage gap. Cincin

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 33 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 31 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| **484** | Total Yards | 396 |
| **342** | Passing Yards | 249 |
| 142 | Rushing Yards | **147** |
| **40** | First Downs | 31 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| **20.6** | Offensive EPA | 19.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Cincinnati Bengals defied the model's 78% prediction for Pittsburgh Steelers, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 64 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 47. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 18 points above Clay Martin's career average of 46. Cincinnati Bengals's victory aligns with Clay Martin's historical trend, Cincinnati Bengals have a 60% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Pittsburgh Steelers to win @ $1.41 (edge +7.3%) — model probability 78.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Pittsburgh Steelers here: 78% to see off Cincinnati Bengals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Pittsburgh Steelers sit 75 ELO points clear, 1542 to 1468. Form leans Pittsburgh Steelers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Cincinnati Bengals.

Pittsburgh Steelers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Pittsburgh Steelers by 5.5, with the two sides combining for about 47. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Pittsburgh Steelers to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Pittsburgh Steelers taking the most recent 34-12 in 2025 Week 11.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 4-4 away, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Joe Flacco starts under centre for Cincinnati Bengals, Aaron Rodgers for Pittsburgh Steelers, with Zac Taylor and Mike Tomlin calling the shots.

The market has Pittsburgh Steelers favourites, Cincinnati Bengals $3.00 and Pittsburgh Steelers $1.41, with the spread at Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Cincinnati Bengals 6 · Pittsburgh Steelers 6 |
| Last meeting | Pittsburgh Steelers 34-12 (2025) |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 home |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 4-4 away |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Joe Flacco · Aaron Rodgers |
| Head coaches | Zac Taylor · Mike Tomlin |
| Market | Cincinnati Bengals $3.00 · Pittsburgh Steelers $1.41 |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cincinnati Bengals

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3W–2L | 60% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2W–2L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

Cincinnati Bengals hold a 10-point edge: 3W–2L (60%) vs Pittsburgh Steelers's 2W–2L (50%). Small sample (4 games for Pittsburgh Steelers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 23.8pts |
| 33.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.4pts |
| -16.2pts | Avg Margin | 2.4pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | W2 W · W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W6 L | 17.2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W1 W · W2 L · W3 W · W4 W · W6 W | 23.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Pittsburgh Steelers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 34 – 12 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2025 | W7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 33 – 31 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2024 | W18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 – 19 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2024 | W13 | Cincinnati Bengals | 38 – 44 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2023 | W16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 34 – 11 | Cincinnati Bengals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Paycor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 5/6g | 17/26g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 2 in 6g | 7/10g (1·1·3·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 15/20g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/17g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Drew Sample | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/15g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/16g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Joe Flacco | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tahj Brooks | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Washington | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 3% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 1/3g | 26% | — | 🏉 42' 58' |
| – | Roman Wilson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Scott Miller | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ DK Metcalf 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Jonnu Smith — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Steelers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: P.Freiermuth, D.Washington

**Cincinnati Bengals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Tee Higgins — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Bengals: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: N.Fant

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cincinnati Bengals 1468 · Pittsburgh Steelers 1542 · ELO difference: 74 in favour of Pittsburgh Steelers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cincinnati Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 19 | 56 | Pittsburgh Steelers +37 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 52 | Even |
| Backfield | 35 | 53 | Pittsburgh Steelers +18 |
| Pass Rush | 46 | 69 | Pittsburgh Steelers +23 |
| Secondary | 55 | 64 | Pittsburgh Steelers +9 |
| Special Teams | 50 | 66 | Pittsburgh Steelers +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Pittsburgh Steelers predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-17 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)