# Chicago Bears v New Orleans Saints — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Chicago Bears 26 – 14 New Orleans Saints

_Chicago Bears bear down on New Orleans Saints._

Half time: 20 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Chicago Bears 79% / New Orleans Saints 21% · Soldier Field · Mon, 20 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Chicago Bears: D'Andre Swift (21' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Monangai (28') · New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave (30' Tipped ⚡), Chris Olave (36' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 79% | Won |
| New Orleans Saints | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Chicago Bears 26–14 New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 7 at Soldier Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Chicago Bears led New Orleans Saints 20-7 at the break, and the second half didn't really change the story so much as confirm it. Final score: Bears 26, Saints 14. The gap that opened in the first two quarters never closed.

That half-time margin was built fast. Chicago were up 3-0 after the first quarter, then D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai both crossed inside a five-minute stretch of the second to push it to 19-0. Chris Olave got the Saints on the board with 27 seconds left before the break, but by then the damage was done.

New Orleans did make a fist of the third quarter. Olave scored his second, this time with 9:47 left in the period, and the margin was down to six at 20-13. It's the closest the Saints got all night. Chicago answered before the quarter was out to make it 23-14, and nothing from New Orleans in the fourth could find another way through.

The stat sheet explains why that comeback stalled. Chicago ran for 222 yards, more than half their 394 total yards, against a Saints defence facing a Bears backfield rated well clear of New Orleans's own, 53 to 39 coming in. Swift alone finished with 124 yards on 19 carries and the opening touchdown. New Orleans, by contrast, managed just 44 yards on the ground all game. A team that one-dimensional was always going to struggle to sustain a chase.

Through the air, Spencer Rattler actually outthrew Caleb Williams on paper: 20-of-32 for 233 yards and two touchdowns to Williams's 15-of-26 for 172. Olave was the best individual number on the field, five catches for 98 yards and both scores. But Rattler's three interceptions, part of a 4-1 turnover count in Chicago's favour, undid whatever the yardage suggested. Chicago's pass rush got home four times to New Orleans's one, and pressure like that tends to be where turnovers come from.

Offensive efficiency told the same story from a different angle: Chicago finished at plus-2.7 expected points added, New Orleans at minus-15.7. A near-18-point efficiency gap, snap for snap, on a night the Saints actually had more raw passing yards. That's what turnovers and a stalled run game will do to a stat line.

Alphr's model had Chicago as 79% favourites, pricing in a 5.4-point win with a 50-point total. New Orleans arrived off a wobbly LLLWL run and conceding an average of 28 points a game, Chicago on a firmer WWW finish to their last five. The final margin landed at 12, more than double the projected number, but the direction was never in doubt. When a defence forces four turnovers and a backfield edge shows up as 222 rushing yards to 44, the model's job was mostly done before kickoff.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 3 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 26 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Chicago Bears | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| **394** | Total Yards | 277 |
| 172 | Passing Yards | **233** |
| **222** | Rushing Yards | 44 |
| **33** | First Downs | 21 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 4 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **2.7** | Offensive EPA | -15.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Chicago Bears to win at 79% probability. The predicted margin of 5.4 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 5 points below Scott Novak's career average of 45. Chicago Bears bucked the trend, New Orleans Saints historically win 43% of games under Scott Novak, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.44 (edge +9.6%) — model probability 78.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 5 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Chicago Bears here: 79% to see off New Orleans Saints. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Chicago Bears sit 78 ELO points clear, 1446 to 1367. Form leans Chicago Bears' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for New Orleans Saints.

Chicago Bears own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Chicago Bears by 5.4, with the two sides combining for about 50. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Chicago Bears to win, not to win big.

New Orleans Saints have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 26-14 in 2025 Week 7.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

Caleb Williams starts under centre for Chicago Bears, Spencer Rattler for New Orleans Saints, with Ben Johnson and Kellen Moore calling the shots.

The market has Chicago Bears favourites, Chicago Bears $1.44 and New Orleans Saints $2.85, with the spread at Chicago Bears -4.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Chicago Bears 4 · New Orleans Saints 8 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 26-14 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-2 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 away |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Spencer Rattler |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Kellen Moore |
| Market | Chicago Bears $1.44 · New Orleans Saints $2.85 |
| Spread | Chicago Bears -4.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New Orleans Saints

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 1W–7L | 13% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3W–4L | 43% |

Avg total: 45.4 pts · Home win %: 46% · Home bias: Leans away

When Scott Novak officiates, New Orleans Saints have won 3 of 7 games (43%), significantly stronger than Chicago Bears's 1 from 8 (13%). Small sample (7 games for New Orleans Saints).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 28.2pts | Avg Conceded | 28.0pts |
| -3.0pts | Avg Margin | -8.4pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W1 L · W2 L · W3 W · W4 W · W6 W | 25.2 |
| New Orleans Saints | W2 L · W3 L · W4 L · W5 W · W6 L | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New Orleans Saints lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W7 | Chicago Bears | 26 – 14 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2023 | W9 | New Orleans Saints | 24 – 17 | Chicago Bears |
| 2020 | W18 | New Orleans Saints | 21 – 9 | Chicago Bears |
| 2020 | W8 | Chicago Bears | 23 – 26 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2019 | W7 | Chicago Bears | 25 – 36 | New Orleans Saints |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 5 in 5g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/10g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 4/12g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 21' |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 10/42g | 24% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 9/18g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Roschon Johnson | RB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/14g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Travis Homer | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' 36' |
| – | Jack Stoll | TE | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kendre Miller | RB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Taysom Hill | TE | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·3·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 2/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Devin Neal | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Tipton | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Spencer Rattler | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New Orleans Saints** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Alvin Kamara 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Taysom Hill 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Olave — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- Rest of the Saints: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Rome Odunze 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ DJ Moore — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Monangai

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1446 · New Orleans Saints 1367 · ELO difference: 78 in favour of Chicago Bears

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | New Orleans Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 57 | 53 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 53 | Even |
| Backfield | 53 | 39 | Chicago Bears +14 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 59 | 56 | Even |
| Special Teams | 53 | 58 | New Orleans Saints +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-19 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)