# Arizona Cardinals v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Arizona Cardinals 23 – 27 Green Bay Packers

_Green Bay Packers roar back to bundle past Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 13 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Arizona Cardinals 25% / Green Bay Packers 75% · State Farm Stadium · Mon, 20 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride (30' Tipped ⚡), Trey McBride (41' Tipped ⚡) · Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs (36' Tipped ⚡), Tucker Kraft (45' Tipped ⚡), Josh Jacobs (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 75% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 Oct 2025, 07:25 am_

Arizona Cardinals 23–27 Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 7 at State Farm Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Arizona led at the break, 13-6, and had done it playing the sort of clean, balanced football that makes a home crowd relax too early. A Trey McBride touchdown with 12 seconds left in the second gave the Cardinals a lead built on total yards, first downs, the lot. Green Bay had six points and a lot of work to do.

The second half is where the Packers actually won the game. Josh Jacobs got them within one at 13-12 with just under ten minutes left in the third. McBride answered straight back for Arizona to make it 19-13, and by the end of the quarter the Cardinals still held a 20-13 edge. It looked like a lead that would hold. It didn't.

Tucker Kraft opened the fourth with a touchdown to make it 20-19, and then Jacobs did it again with 1:54 to go, his second of the day, to put Green Bay in front 26-23. A conversion made it 27-23, and that's how it finished. One score, decided in the last two minutes.

Look at the stat sheet and Arizona should have won this by ten. They outgained the Packers 373 yards to 273, outpassed them 279 to 179, and led first downs 31 to 25. Rushing yards were dead even at 94 apiece. Jacoby Brissett was excellent, 25 of 36 for 279 and two touchdowns, both to McBride, who finished with ten catches for 74 yards and was the best player on the ground by some distance.

None of it mattered because of two numbers: sacks and turnovers. Green Bay's pass rush got home six times to Arizona's one, and the Cardinals coughed up the only turnover of the afternoon. Add it up and Green Bay ran a more efficient offence per snap, plus 9.8 expected points on the day despite being outgained by exactly 100 yards. Jordan Love didn't need to do much: 19 of 29 for 179 and a touchdown, because his defence kept handing him short fields and free possessions.

The pre-match shape of this one explains a lot. Green Bay came in rated stronger at quarterback, 73 to 51, and in the backfield, 64 to 48, and Jacobs made that count with two rushing touchdowns while Bam Knight led all runners with a modest 57 yards on 14 carries. Arizona actually graded out marginally ahead at pass rush, 52 to 50, which makes the 6-1 sack count in Green Bay's favour the strangest line on the sheet.

Form lines pointed this direction too. Arizona arrived on a 1-4 run with an average margin of minus 0.8, Green Bay on 3-2 with a plus 5.8 average margin, and the whole match played out like a coin landing on the side it usually does. Green Bay's average score of 26.2 points across their last five was close enough to the 27 they hung up here, while Arizona's 22-point average sat right alongside their 23.

Alphr's model had Green Bay favourites at 75 percent and picked the margin at 2.7 points. The final margin was 4. Not perfect, but close enough to trust the process: Arizona moved the ball, controlled first downs and won the yardage battle comfortably, yet still lost, because six sacks and a turnover are the kind of numbers that erase a 100-yard advantage. Green Bay didn't have to be the better team all afternoon. They just had to be the better team in the moments that counted, and on this occasion, they were.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 23 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| **373** | Total Yards | 273 |
| **279** | Passing Yards | 179 |
| 94 | Rushing Yards | 94 |
| **31** | First Downs | 25 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **6** |
| -3.7 | Offensive EPA | **6.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Green Bay Packers to win at 75% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Green Bay Packers by 2.7 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The 50-point combined total was right in line with Alex Moore's career average of 51. Despite Alex Moore's 67% career home-team win rate, the away side Green Bay Packers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.25 (edge -4.6%) — model probability 75.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 3 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Green Bay Packers here: 75% to see off Arizona Cardinals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 154 ELO points clear, 1607 to 1452. Form leans Green Bay Packers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Arizona Cardinals.

Green Bay Packers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Green Bay Packers by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Green Bay Packers to win, not to win big.

Green Bay Packers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Green Bay Packers took the most recent meeting 27-23 in 2025 Week 7.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Kyler Murray starts under centre for Arizona Cardinals, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Jonathan Gannon and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Arizona Cardinals $4.10 and Green Bay Packers $1.25, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -7 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Arizona Cardinals 5 · Green Bay Packers 7 |
| Last meeting | Green Bay Packers 27-23 (2025) |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 home |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 4-5 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Kyler Murray · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Jonathan Gannon · Matt LaFleur |
| Market | Arizona Cardinals $4.10 · Green Bay Packers $1.25 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -7 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Green Bay Packers | 0W–0L | 0% |

Avg total: 50.7 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alex Moore, Arizona Cardinals 0W–0L (0%) and Green Bay Packers 0W–0L (0%). Games average 50.7 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Arizona Cardinals).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 26.2pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -0.8pts | Avg Margin | 5.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | W2 W · W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W6 L | 22.0 |
| Green Bay Packers | W1 W · W2 W · W3 L · W4 D · W6 W | 26.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Green Bay Packers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W7 | Arizona Cardinals | 23 – 27 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2024 | W6 | Green Bay Packers | 34 – 13 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2021 | W8 | Arizona Cardinals | 21 – 24 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2018 | W13 | Green Bay Packers | 17 – 20 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2015 | WC | Arizona Cardinals | 26 – 20 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at State Farm Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bam Knight | RB | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/12g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/23g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 30' 41' |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/29g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/18g | 20% | — | — |
| – | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/15g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Simi Fehoko | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Weaver | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zay Jones | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 6 in 5g | 11/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·2·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.63 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.80 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 59' |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| – | John FitzPatrick | TE | 1 in 3g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Malik Heath | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 0 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Tucker Kraft — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Romeo Doubs — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

**Arizona Cardinals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ Marvin Harrison Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Carter 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Cardinals: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Arizona Cardinals 1452 · Green Bay Packers 1607 · ELO difference: 154 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Arizona Cardinals | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 51 | 73 | Green Bay Packers +22 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 64 | Even |
| Backfield | 48 | 64 | Green Bay Packers +16 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 50 | Even |
| Secondary | 53 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 61 | 66 | Green Bay Packers +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-19 20:25 UTC (latest tip update)