# Washington Commanders v Chicago Bears — NFL Week 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Washington Commanders 24 – 25 Chicago Bears

_Chicago Bears edge Washington Commanders in a one-point thriller._

Half time: 7 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Washington Commanders 72% / Chicago Bears 28% · FedExField · Tue, 14 Oct, 11:15 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Washington Commanders: Chris Moore (21'), Luke McCaffrey (42'), Zach Ertz (49' Tipped ⚡) · Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (16'), D'Andre Swift (50' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 72% | Lost |
| Chicago Bears | 28% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 6, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 Oct 2025, 11:15 am_

Washington Commanders 24–25 Chicago Bears in NFL Week 6 at FedExField. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Washington Commanders had more first downs, 29 to 28, and still lost. That single line tells you plenty about how this one went. Three turnovers against none is the kind of arithmetic that turns a competitive afternoon into a defeat, and Washington paid for it in exactly the margin Chicago Bears needed.

The ratings sheet had Washington's backfield miles ahead of Chicago's coming in, 65 to 39, one of the widest gaps on the card. Didn't matter. D'Andre Swift ran through it anyway, 108 yards on just 14 carries to lead all rushers, then caught the game's most damaging pass: two grabs for 67 yards and a touchdown. When the supposed weak point turns into the best player on the ground, the rest of the plan is fighting uphill.

Jayden Daniels did his job well enough on paper, 19 of 26 for 211 yards and three touchdowns, with Chris Moore, Luke McCaffrey and Zach Ertz all finishing off his throws. But the interception in a three-turnover afternoon is the kind of detail that gets buried in a box score and shows up in the final score anyway. Caleb Williams, by contrast, threw for 252 at a lower completion rate, 17 of 29, and needed only the one touchdown pass, because Chicago's running game and clean ball security did the heavy lifting instead.

Washington were down 0 to 13 at half-time and had to work for everything after that. Chris Moore's touchdown with 9:33 left in the second quarter got them within six by the break, at 7 to 13. Chicago had actually opened the scoring through Caleb Williams' first touchdown, and led 12 to 0 before Moore's response. Washington kept chipping into it, and by the end of the third quarter they'd flipped the game on its head, 17 to 16, on the back of Luke McCaffrey's score with 3:03 left in the term. Zach Ertz then put them in front by seven early in the fourth, 23 to 16 with 11:31 to go, the best position either side held all day.

Chicago Bears didn't blink. Swift's touchdown with 10:36 left cut the margin straight back to two, 24 to 22, and from there the visitors found enough to get over the line, 25 to 24. One score separated the teams for the entire second half, and it stayed that way to the final whistle.

The yardage tells the same story as the turnover count. Chicago Bears outgained Washington 397 to 335 overall, 252 to 211 through the air and 145 to 124 on the ground. Offensive EPA had Chicago at plus 9.2 against Washington's minus 3.8, a gap of nearly 13 points of expected value that lines up with how the game actually played out down the stretch.

Alphr's model had backed Washington to win this at 72 percent, with an expected margin of 6.6 points and a combined total of 45. Chicago's win as underdogs counts as a genuine upset by that measure, though the model's numbers weren't far off the mark elsewhere: the actual margin was one point instead of 6.6, and the combined score of 49 sat within four points of the projected total. Sometimes the ledger says one thing and the scoreboard says another. This was one of those days for Washington.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 24 |
| Chicago Bears | 6 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 25 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 335 | Total Yards | **397** |
| 211 | Passing Yards | **252** |
| 124 | Rushing Yards | **145** |
| **29** | First Downs | 28 |
| 3 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 3 | Sacks Made | 3 |
| -3.8 | Offensive EPA | **9.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Chicago Bears defied the model's 72% prediction for Washington Commanders, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 49, within 4 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The 49-point combined total was right in line with Alex Moore's career average of 51. Despite Alex Moore's 67% career home-team win rate, the away side Chicago Bears prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Washington Commanders to win @ $1.39 (edge +0.4%) — model probability 72.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Washington Commanders by 7 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Washington Commanders here: 72% to see off Chicago Bears. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Washington Commanders sit 136 ELO points clear, 1571 to 1435.

Washington Commanders own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Washington Commanders by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Washington Commanders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Washington Commanders have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 25-24 in 2025 Week 6.

Washington Commanders went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 2-6 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 26.5 against.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Jayden Daniels starts under centre for Washington Commanders, Caleb Williams for Chicago Bears, with Dan Quinn and Ben Johnson calling the shots.

Chicago Bears come in fresher, 15 days between games against 8.

The market has Washington Commanders favourites, Washington Commanders $1.39 and Chicago Bears $3.10, with the spread at Washington Commanders -5.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Washington Commanders 9 · Chicago Bears 3 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 25-24 (2025) |
| Washington Commanders 2025 so far | 5-12 · 2-6 home |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 20.9 for · 26.5 against |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-4 away |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jayden Daniels · Caleb Williams |
| Head coaches | Dan Quinn · Ben Johnson |
| Rest | Washington Commanders 8d · Chicago Bears 15d |
| Market | Washington Commanders $1.39 · Chicago Bears $3.10 |
| Spread | Washington Commanders -5.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Chicago Bears | 0W–1L | 0% |

Avg total: 50.8 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alex Moore, Washington Commanders 0W–0L (0%) and Chicago Bears 0W–1L (0%). Games average 50.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Washington Commanders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 26.8pts | Avg Score | 25.0pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Conceded | 27.8pts |
| 6.6pts | Avg Margin | -2.8pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 15.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | W1 W · W2 L · W3 W · W4 L · W5 W | 26.8 |
| Chicago Bears | W18 W · W1 L · W2 L · W3 W · W4 W | 25.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Chicago Bears lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W6 | Washington Commanders | 24 – 25 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W8 | Washington Commanders | 18 – 15 | Chicago Bears |
| 2023 | W5 | Washington Commanders | 20 – 40 | Chicago Bears |
| 2022 | W6 | Chicago Bears | 7 – 12 | Washington Commanders |
| 2019 | W3 | Washington Commanders | 15 – 31 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FedExField. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 2/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (1·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Luke McCaffrey | WR | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 13% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Zach Ertz | TE | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 8/17g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| – | Jaylin Lane | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/10g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Chris Moore | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Colson Yankoff | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Daniels | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 5 in 4g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 5/5g | 2/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/6g | 3/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/11g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Roschon Johnson | RB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Chicago Bears** (2 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Rome Odunze 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Williams

**Washington Commanders** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel Sr. 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Jacory Croskey-Merritt 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Jayden Daniels — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Ertz — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Commanders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Moore, L.McCaffrey

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Washington Commanders 1571 · Chicago Bears 1435 · ELO difference: 136 in favour of Washington Commanders

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Washington Commanders | Chicago Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 68 | 56 | Washington Commanders +12 |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 52 | Washington Commanders +6 |
| Backfield | 65 | 39 | Washington Commanders +26 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 53 | Washington Commanders +6 |
| Secondary | 53 | 62 | Chicago Bears +9 |
| Special Teams | 64 | 46 | Washington Commanders +18 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Chicago Bears |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Washington Commanders predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-14 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)