# Tampa Bay Buccaneers v San Francisco 49ers — NFL Week 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – 19 San Francisco 49ers

_Tampa Bay Buccaneers raid San Francisco 49ers._

Half time: 20 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 52% / San Francisco 49ers 48% · Raymond James Stadium · Mon, 13 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rachaad White (6' Tipped ⚡), Sean Tucker (25'), Kameron Johnson (30'), Tez Johnson (43') · San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey (20' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 52% | Won |
| San Francisco 49ers | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 6, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Oct 2025, 07:25 am_

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–19 San Francisco 49ers in NFL Week 6 at Raymond James Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Tampa Bay led 20 to 16 at the break, a four-point cushion built on a small flurry of momentum, and by full time that gap had stretched to 11. The scoreboard read 30 to 19 in the end, but the shape of the second half tells you the Buccaneers didn't so much pull away as simply keep doing what worked.

Rewind to the first half and it was tight, scrappy, back and forth. Rachaad White opened the scoring early in the first quarter, Christian McCaffrey answered for San Francisco with just over 10 minutes left in the second, and then Tampa Bay strung together two more before the break, Sean Tucker and Kameron Johnson, to take that 20-16 lead into the sheds. Four lead changes and swings inside two quarters, and San Francisco were very much still in it.

The third quarter is where the contest actually settled. Tez Johnson's touchdown with 2:49 left in the quarter pushed Tampa Bay out to 26-19, and from there San Francisco never scored again. The Buccaneers added a further score across the rest of the game to close it out 30-19, while the 49ers' offence, for all its yardage, simply ran out of answers.

And that yardage tells its own story. San Francisco actually outgained Tampa Bay 414 to 360, with Mac Jones throwing for 347 yards on 27 of 39. Numbers like that usually win you games. They didn't here, because Jones also threw two interceptions, and Tampa Bay's pass rush got home six times to San Francisco's one. Add it up and Tampa Bay finished the day at plus 13.1 offensive EPA against San Francisco's minus 5.7, a gap of nearly 19 points of expected value that no amount of raw yardage could paper over.

Baker Mayfield didn't need the volume Jones had. He went 17 of 23 for 256 yards and two touchdowns, clean and unhurried behind a Tampa Bay pass rush that kept San Francisco's own attack under constant pressure. Rachaad White led all rushers with 65 yards on 17 carries and a touchdown, part of a rushing effort that saw Tampa Bay out-run San Francisco 104 yards to 67 despite giving up ground overall. On the other side, Kendrick Bourne was the standout individual number of the day regardless of result, five catches for 142 yards, but one big receiving day doesn't fix two turnovers and a leaky pass rush.

The positional read going in had Tampa Bay ahead at quarterback, 76 to 66, and in the receiving corps, 61 to 51, and both edges showed up when it mattered. San Francisco came in on the same last-five record, four wins from five, but Tampa Bay's average margin of 0.6 masked a side that, on this evidence, finishes stronger than its form line suggests.

Alphr's model had Tampa Bay favourites at 52 percent, with an expected margin of 2.2 and a combined total of 52. The final gap of 11 was well beyond that projected margin, but the total landed close, 49 points against a called 52. Not a bad read on the shape of the game, just short on how one-sided the third quarter would turn out to be.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 30 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 19 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | Total Yards | **414** |
| 256 | Passing Yards | **347** |
| **104** | Rushing Yards | 67 |
| **27** | First Downs | 26 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **6** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **13.1** | Offensive EPA | -5.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win at 52% probability. The predicted margin of 2.2 was reasonable against the actual 11-point result. Total score prediction of 52 was close to the actual 49, within 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The 49-point combined total was right in line with Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Tampa Bay Buccaneers's victory aligns with Brad Rogers's historical trend, Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 80% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $1.52 (edge -14.1%) — model probability 51.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers. The model can't split them, landing on Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit 49 ELO points clear, 1565 to 1516.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 52. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

San Francisco 49ers have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers took the most recent meeting 30-19 in 2025 Week 6.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 away, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Baker Mayfield starts under centre for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Brock Purdy for San Francisco 49ers, with Todd Bowles and Kyle Shanahan calling the shots.

San Francisco 49ers come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers favourites, Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.52 and San Francisco 49ers $2.60, with the spread at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 · San Francisco 49ers 8 |
| Last meeting | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30-19 (2025) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-4 home |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 away |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Baker Mayfield · Brock Purdy |
| Head coaches | Todd Bowles · Kyle Shanahan |
| Rest | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7d · San Francisco 49ers 10d |
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.52 · San Francisco 49ers $2.60 |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tampa Bay Buccaneers

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4W–1L | 80% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4W–2L | 67% |

Avg total: 45.8 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold a 13-point edge: 4W–1L (80%) vs San Francisco 49ers's 4W–2L (67%). Small sample (5 games for Tampa Bay Buccaneers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 27.0pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| 0.6pts | Avg Margin | 1.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W1 W · W2 W · W3 W · W4 L · W5 W | 27.0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | W1 W · W2 W · W3 W · W4 L · W5 W | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 30 – 19 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | W10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20 – 23 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2023 | W11 | San Francisco 49ers | 27 – 14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2022 | W14 | San Francisco 49ers | 35 – 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2019 | W1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17 – 31 | San Francisco 49ers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Raymond James Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 5 in 5g | 5/5g (2·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 2/3g | 12/29g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' |
| – | Ryan Miller | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/10g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/22g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/26g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Devin Culp | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 6% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 43' |

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 10/10g | 3/4g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.69 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.70 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| – | Jake Tonges | TE | 3 in 5g | 3/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Willis | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 19% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Mac Jones | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Kendrick Bourne — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 19% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Rachaad White 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Cade Otton — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: S.Tucker, K.Johnson, T.Johnson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1565 · San Francisco 49ers 1516 · ELO difference: 49 in favour of Tampa Bay Buccaneers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | San Francisco 49ers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 76 | 66 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 51 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 |
| Backfield | 56 | 55 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 49 | Even |
| Secondary | 57 | 51 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 |
| Special Teams | 74 | 72 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | San Francisco 49ers |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r6-tampa-bay-buccaneers-v-san-francisco-49ers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-10-12 20:25 UTC (latest tip update)