# New York Jets v Denver Broncos — NFL Week 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Jets 11 – 13 Denver Broncos

_Denver Broncos buck off a gallant New York Jets._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Jets 18% / Denver Broncos 82% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 13 Oct, 12:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Jets: none · Denver Broncos: Nate Adkins (15')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 82% | Won |
| New York Jets | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Jets vs Denver Broncos Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 6, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Oct 2025, 12:30 am_

New York Jets 11–13 Denver Broncos in NFL Week 6 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Denver Broncos beat New York Jets 13-11 at MetLife Stadium. One score, right to the final whistle.

Don't let that fool you. Denver piled up 252 total yards to the Jets' 137, doubled them in first downs 21 to 10, and put Justin Fields on the deck nine times behind an offensive line that couldn't buy him a clean pocket. The Jets' offensive EPA read minus-24. Denver's was minus-1.4. That's not a close football game by any sensible measure, it's a team that happened to lose the only turnover battle and still nearly got blown out on the stat sheet.

The night's only touchdown came early and settled nothing. Nate Adkins scored with two seconds left in the first quarter to make it 9-6, Denver having banked a field goal before it too. Nothing changed at the break, 10-6 Denver. The Jets scrapped back with a field goal in the third to get within 10-11, then Denver answered with one of their own late to make it 13-11, and that's how it finished. A game that felt tight was really just a team refusing to convert a beating into points.

Bo Nix was the difference through the air, 19 of 30 for 174 yards and the game's only touchdown pass. Justin Fields went 9 of 17 for a paltry 45 yards, and when your quarterback can't move the ball through the air, 92 rushing yards on the back of Breece Hall's 59 on 22 carries was never going to be enough on its own. Hall did his job. Nobody else did theirs.

Denver's turnover was the one blemish in an otherwise clean operational night, and it's the reason this finished 13-11 instead of something uglier. New York had zero giveaways and still lost by two, which tells you plenty about how far they were behind in the fundamentals elsewhere.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the positional numbers going in. Denver held real edges in pass rush, 61 to 49, and secondary, 61 to 51, and both showed up exactly where you'd expect: nine sacks and a passing performance from Fields that never got going. The Jets' one clear advantage, special teams at 60 to 52, wasn't enough to swing a game this lopsided in the trenches.

Form lined up too. Denver arrived on a 3-2 run over their last five with an average margin of plus-6.6, the Jets winless in five straight with a minus-9 average margin, and this looked like a continuation of both trends rather than any kind of upset in the making.

Alphr's model had Denver as 82% favourites and pegged the margin at 12.9. The actual margin was 2, so the model backed the right side but overstated the gap where the scoreboard was concerned, even if the underlying performance gap was every bit as wide as advertised. The model also pencilled in a combined total of 46 points. The teams managed 24, more than 20 points light, in a game that had far more hitting than scoring in it.

Denver move on with the win intact. The Jets leave with a fifth straight loss and a stat line that's a lot more damning than 13-11 lets on.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| Denver Broncos | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Jets | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 137 | Total Yards | **252** |
| 45 | Passing Yards | **174** |
| **92** | Rushing Yards | 78 |
| 10 | First Downs | **21** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **9** |
| -24 | Offensive EPA | **-1.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 82% probability. The predicted margin of 12.9 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 24 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Land Clark officiated this match (95 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 22 points below Land Clark's career average of 46. Denver Broncos's victory aligns with Land Clark's historical trend, Denver Broncos have a 71% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.25 (edge +1.8%) — model probability 81.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 13 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 82% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 215 ELO points clear, 1587 to 1372. Form leans Denver Broncos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for New York Jets.

Denver Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 12.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. Denver Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Denver Broncos have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Denver Broncos took the most recent meeting 13-11 in 2025 Week 6.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Justin Fields starts under centre for New York Jets, Bo Nix for Denver Broncos, with Aaron Glenn and Sean Payton calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, New York Jets $4.10 and Denver Broncos $1.25, with the spread at Denver Broncos -7.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New York Jets 4 · Denver Broncos 8 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 13-11 (2025) |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 away |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Fields · Bo Nix |
| Head coaches | Aaron Glenn · Sean Payton |
| Market | New York Jets $4.10 · Denver Broncos $1.25 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -7.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Land Clark |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Denver Broncos

**Land Clark** — 95 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Land Clark | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 3W–3L | 50% |
| Denver Broncos | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 45.8 pts · Home win %: 43% · Home bias: Leans away

When Land Clark officiates, Denver Broncos have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than New York Jets's 3 from 6 (50%). Away teams perform well, home sides win just 43%, below ~55% league avg. Small sample (6 games for New York Jets).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Jets | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 23.4pts |
| 31.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| -9.0pts | Avg Margin | 6.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | W1 L · W2 L · W3 L · W4 L · W5 L | 22.4 |
| Denver Broncos | W1 W · W2 L · W3 L · W4 W · W5 W | 23.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W6 | New York Jets | 11 – 13 | Denver Broncos |
| 2024 | W4 | New York Jets | 9 – 10 | Denver Broncos |
| 2023 | W5 | Denver Broncos | 21 – 31 | New York Jets |
| 2022 | W7 | Denver Broncos | 9 – 16 | New York Jets |
| 2021 | W3 | Denver Broncos | 26 – 0 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Garrett Wilson | WR | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/3g | 10/29g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Justin Fields | QB | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Beck | RB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/18g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Arian Smith | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 10/24g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Reynolds | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Kene Nwangwu | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Mason Taylor | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Stone Smartt | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Johnson | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.07 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·2·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 6/33g | 20% | — | — |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Nate Adkins | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Denver Broncos** (4 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Marvin Mims Jr. — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ RJ Harvey — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: N.Adkins

**New York Jets** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Garrett Wilson 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 37% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Jets 1372 · Denver Broncos 1587 · ELO difference: 215 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Jets | Denver Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 57 | 55 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 55 | Even |
| Backfield | 49 | 55 | Denver Broncos +6 |
| Pass Rush | 49 | 61 | Denver Broncos +12 |
| Secondary | 51 | 61 | Denver Broncos +10 |
| Special Teams | 60 | 52 | New York Jets +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-12 13:30 UTC (latest tip update)