# New York Giants v Philadelphia Eagles — NFL Week 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Giants 34 – 17 Philadelphia Eagles

_New York Giants dwarf Philadelphia Eagles._

Half time: 20 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Giants 18% / Philadelphia Eagles 82% · MetLife Stadium · Fri, 10 Oct, 11:15 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Giants: Jaxson Dart (5'), Wan'Dale Robinson (10' Tipped ⚡), Cam Skattebo (29' Tipped ⚡), Cam Skattebo (38' Tipped ⚡), Cam Skattebo (51' Tipped ⚡) · Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas Goedert (14' Tipped ⚡), Jalen Hurts (23' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 82% | Lost |
| New York Giants | 18% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 20.9 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 6, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Oct 2025, 11:15 am_

New York Giants 34–17 Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 6 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirteen points. That's the gap between New York Giants' offensive EPA of 12.9 and Philadelphia Eagles' -0.3, and it tells you almost everything about how the Giants walked out of MetLife Stadium with a 34-17 win over the Eagles that the ratings never saw coming.

Philadelphia moved the ball fine, 356 yards, 33 first downs, Jalen Hurts slinging it around for 283 through the air. None of it mattered much when the Eagles kept handing it back. Two turnovers to none is a hard number to argue with, and every time Hurts or his offence coughed it up, New York cashed in.

The story of the scoreboard is really the story of Cam Skattebo. He crossed the line three times, ran for 98 yards on 19 carries, and turned what was a tight, jumpy first half into a rout by the finish. New York leaned on the ground game all night, 172 rushing yards, 47 per cent of their total output, against an Eagles defence that had no answer for it. Philadelphia managed just 73 rushing yards themselves, which is its own kind of tell.

It didn't look like a laugher early. Jaxson Dart and Wan'Dale Robinson had New York out 13-3 inside the first quarter, Dallas Goedert dragged Philadelphia back within three, and Hurts' own touchdown midway through the second put the Eagles briefly in front, 16-13. Skattebo's first score with 1:22 left in the half handed New York the lead back for good, and they took a 20-17 buffer into the sheds. From there it was one team pulling away and one team standing still: Skattebo again in the third quarter, Skattebo again early in the fourth, and suddenly a nervy contest was a 17-point statement.

Goedert was arguably Philadelphia's best player and it still wasn't enough, 9 catches for 110 yards and a score, doing more with less help than anyone else on the field in green. Hurts threw for 283 yards but the interception and the two lost turnov

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 13 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Giants | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **367** | Total Yards | 356 |
| 195 | Passing Yards | **283** |
| **172** | Rushing Yards | 73 |
| 30 | First Downs | **33** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **12.9** | Offensive EPA | -0.3 |

**Model Report Card**

New York Giants defied the model's 82% prediction for Philadelphia Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 20.9 but the actual margin was 17 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 40.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 5 points above Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. New York Giants bucked the trend, Philadelphia Eagles historically win 75% of games under Clete Blakeman, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.25 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 82.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 21 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Philadelphia Eagles here: 82% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 343 ELO points clear, 1692 to 1349. Form leans Philadelphia Eagles' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Giants.

Philadelphia Eagles own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Philadelphia Eagles by 20.9, with the two sides combining for about 44. Philadelphia Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Philadelphia Eagles took the most recent meeting 38-20 in 2025 Week 8.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 away, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Jaxson Dart starts under centre for New York Giants, Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia Eagles, with Brian Daboll and Nick Sirianni calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, New York Giants $4.10 and Philadelphia Eagles $1.25, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -7 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New York Giants 4 · Philadelphia Eagles 8 |
| Last meeting | Philadelphia Eagles 38-20 (2025) |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 3-5 home |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 away |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jaxson Dart · Jalen Hurts |
| Head coaches | Brian Daboll · Nick Sirianni |
| Market | New York Giants $4.10 · Philadelphia Eagles $1.25 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -7 · total 40.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Philadelphia Eagles

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 3W–7L | 30% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 12W–4L | 75% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Clete Blakeman officiates, Philadelphia Eagles have won 12 of 16 games (75%), significantly stronger than New York Giants's 3 from 10 (30%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Giants | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.4pts | Avg Score | 25.0pts |
| 25.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.8pts |
| -8.0pts | Avg Margin | 3.2pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | W1 L · W2 L · W3 L · W4 W · W5 L | 17.4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | W1 W · W2 W · W3 W · W4 W · W5 L | 25.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W8 | Philadelphia Eagles | 38 – 20 | New York Giants |
| 2025 | W6 | New York Giants | 34 – 17 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2024 | W18 | Philadelphia Eagles | 20 – 13 | New York Giants |
| 2024 | W7 | New York Giants | 3 – 28 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2023 | W18 | New York Giants | 27 – 10 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Cam Skattebo | RB | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 38' 51' |
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/21g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.80 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/16g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jalin Hyatt | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Russell Wilson | QB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.25 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 1/12g | 2/7g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 4 in 5g | 9/10g (0·0·1·3·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 4/6g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 4 in 5g | 9/10g (0·0·2·3·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 23/38g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.70 AI 55% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.80 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/4g | 40% | — | — |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 1/5g | 38% | — | — |
| – | AJ Dillon | RB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 55% · no TD
- ⚡ Jalen Hurts 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Dallas Goedert — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Eagles: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**New York Giants** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Cam Skattebo 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q2, Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Tyrone Tracy Jr. — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Dart

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Giants 1349 · Philadelphia Eagles 1692 · ELO difference: 343 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 44 | 58 | Philadelphia Eagles +14 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 60 | Philadelphia Eagles +9 |
| Backfield | 35 | 53 | Philadelphia Eagles +18 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 57 | Even |
| Secondary | 57 | 57 | Even |
| Special Teams | 49 | 58 | Philadelphia Eagles +9 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Philadelphia Eagles predicted to win by 21 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-10 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)