# New Orleans Saints v New England Patriots — NFL Week 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New Orleans Saints 19 – 25 New England Patriots

_New England Patriots see off a gallant New Orleans Saints._

Half time: 16 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New Orleans Saints 51% / New England Patriots 49% · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Mon, 13 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New Orleans Saints: Taysom Hill (21' Tipped ⚡) · New England Patriots: DeMario Douglas (4'), Kayshon Boutte (15' Tipped ⚡), Kayshon Boutte (30' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 51% | Lost |
| New England Patriots | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 6, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

New Orleans Saints 19–25 New England Patriots in NFL Week 6 at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New England Patriots came to the Superdome throwing haymakers, New Orleans Saints came looking to grind it into submission, and for a half it worked well enough to keep this thing honest. By the final whistle the difference was six points, 25-19, and it was built on the kind of explosive plays patience alone can't answer.

The shape of the night showed up early. DeMario Douglas scored with 11:03 left in the first quarter, Kayshon Boutte struck again with 42 seconds on the clock, and the Patriots led 14-6 after one. Taysom Hill got the Saints back within two at 12-14 midway through the second, but Boutte's second touchdown at the 0:38 mark of that quarter pushed New England out to 20-16, and it was 22-16 at the break. New Orleans didn't find the end zone again, but they weren't done scoring either. New England extended the lead to 25-16 through the third quarter, and New Orleans clawed three points back in the fourth to make it 19-25 at the finish, without ever threatening the result.

The yardage tells the same story from a different angle. New England finished with 334 total yards to New Orleans' 300, and the gap was almost entirely through the air: 261 passing yards to 227. Rushing was dead level at 73 apiece, so this wasn't a case of one side bullying the line of scrimmage. It was a case of one side hitting bigger plays through the air when it mattered, backed by an offensive EPA of 7.4 against New Orleans' 3.3, a gap that says the Patriots' plays were simply worth more each time they ran one.

First downs went 29-21 New England's way, which lines up with a Patriots offence that moved the chains more often and gave itself more cracks at the end zone. New England also got home for two sacks to New Orleans' one, a small but real edge in a game decided by field position and continuity. New Orleans coughed up the only turnover of the night, and against a team converting first downs at that rate, one turnover is enough to decide a game this tight.

Individually it was Drake Maye's night. He went 18 of 26 for 261 yards and three touchdowns, spreading it around to Bo

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 6 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 19 |
| New England Patriots | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 300 | Total Yards | **334** |
| 227 | Passing Yards | **261** |
| 73 | Rushing Yards | 73 |
| 21 | First Downs | **29** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| 3.3 | Offensive EPA | **7.4** |

**Model Report Card**

New England Patriots defied the model's 51% prediction for New Orleans Saints, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting New England Patriots by 3.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adrian Hill officiated this match (112 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Adrian Hill's career average of 45. New England Patriots bucked the trend, New Orleans Saints historically win 57% of games under Adrian Hill, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New Orleans Saints to win @ $2.60 (edge +12.6%) — model probability 51.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** New Orleans Saints +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 4 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots. The model can't split them, landing on New Orleans Saints at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: New England Patriots sit 49 ELO points clear, 1436 to 1387, so the model is backing New Orleans Saints against the ratings gap. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for New Orleans Saints.

On paper New England Patriots shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The model still sides with New Orleans Saints, which says Pass Rush and Secondary carry the most weight. The margin model has New England Patriots by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 44. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

New England Patriots have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 25-19 in 2025 Week 6.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-0 away, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Spencer Rattler starts under centre for New Orleans Saints, Drake Maye for New England Patriots, with Kellen Moore and Mike Vrabel calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, New Orleans Saints $2.60 and New England Patriots $1.52, with the spread at New England Patriots -3.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | New Orleans Saints 3 · New England Patriots 5 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 25-19 (2025) |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 home |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-0 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Spencer Rattler · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | Kellen Moore · Mike Vrabel |
| Market | New Orleans Saints $2.60 · New England Patriots $1.52 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Adrian Hill |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New Orleans Saints

**Adrian Hill** — 112 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Adrian Hill | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 4W–3L | 57% |
| New England Patriots | 2W–4L | 33% |

Avg total: 44.5 pts · Home win %: 48% · Home bias: Neutral

When Adrian Hill officiates, New Orleans Saints have won 4 of 7 games (57%), significantly stronger than New England Patriots's 2 from 6 (33%). Small sample (6 games for New England Patriots).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 25.0pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Conceded | 20.2pts |
| -8.6pts | Avg Margin | 4.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | W1 L · W2 L · W3 L · W4 L · W5 W | 18.4 |
| New England Patriots | W1 L · W2 W · W3 L · W4 W · W5 W | 25.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W6 | New Orleans Saints | 19 – 25 | New England Patriots |
| 2023 | W5 | New England Patriots | 0 – 34 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2021 | W3 | New England Patriots | 13 – 28 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2017 | W2 | New Orleans Saints | 20 – 36 | New England Patriots |
| 2013 | W6 | New England Patriots | 30 – 27 | New Orleans Saints |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 8/18g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 47/65g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 7/20g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/31g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kendre Miller | RB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/13g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Foster Moreau | TE | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 3/16g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mason Tipton | WR | no games | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Spencer Rattler | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Taysom Hill | TE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·3·0·0) | 1/2g | 23/53g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 2/4g | 1/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $18.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 30' |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 1/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Hunter Henry 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Kayshon Boutte 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- Rest of the Patriots: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Douglas

**New Orleans Saints** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Alvin Kamara 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Rashid Shaheed — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Taysom Hill — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Saints: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New Orleans Saints 1387 · New England Patriots 1436 · ELO difference: 49 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New Orleans Saints | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 50 | 69 | New England Patriots +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 63 | Even |
| Backfield | 38 | 46 | New England Patriots +8 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 51 | New Orleans Saints +6 |
| Secondary | 60 | 47 | New Orleans Saints +13 |
| Special Teams | 57 | 57 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — New Orleans Saints predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-12 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)