# Las Vegas Raiders v Tennessee Titans — NFL Week 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Las Vegas Raiders 20 – 10 Tennessee Titans

_Las Vegas Raiders ransack Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 10 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 78% / Tennessee Titans 22% · Allegiant Stadium · Mon, 13 Oct, 07:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Las Vegas Raiders: Michael Mayer (25'), Ashton Jeanty (38' Tipped ⚡) · Tennessee Titans: David Martin-Robinson (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 78% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Las Vegas Raiders vs Tennessee Titans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 6, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Oct 2025, 07:05 am_

Las Vegas Raiders 20–10 Tennessee Titans in NFL Week 6 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had this one at Las Vegas by 1.3, on a combined total of 46. The Raiders won by 10 in a game that produced 30. So the winner was right, the shape of it wasn't.

Las Vegas Raiders 20, Tennessee Titans 10 at Allegiant Stadium, and the story of how it got there is mostly about what didn't happen rather than what did. Nobody moved the ball with any real conviction. Tennessee actually outgained the Raiders 287 yards to 242 and picked up more first downs, 25 to 22. On paper that's a road team doing enough to win. On the scoreboard it's a three-score loss.

The gap is turnovers and pressure, plain and simple. Tennessee coughed it up three times to Las Vegas's one, and the Raiders' pass rush cashed in, getting home five times to the Titans' two. Offensive EPA had Las Vegas at -11.7 against Tennessee's -17.9, so even in a game where neither offense covered itself in glory, the Raiders were the less broken version of bad.

The timeline tells you Las Vegas built this early and just about held on. A field goal had them up 3-0 after the first quarter, then Michael Mayer's touchdown with 5:18 left in the second put it to 9-0, and it was 10-0 at the break. That's the version of the read that held up well: the model liked Las Vegas's edge at quarterback, 38 to 26, and Geno Smith's night, 17 of 23 for 174 yards, backed that up even without huge volume.

Where it got interesting is the third quarter. Ashton Jeanty's touchdown with 7:07 left stretched it to 16-0, but Tennessee finally got on the board to make it 17-3 by the end of the period. Jeanty finished with 75 yards on 23 carries plus the score, doing the heavy lifting the Raiders' backfield rating, 44 against Tennessee's 48, suggested might not be their strength on paper. He was the best skill player on the field regardless of what the numbers said coming in.

Tennessee's response arrived late and wasn't nearly enough. David Martin-Robinson's touchdown with 3:07 to go cut it to 20-10, but by then the deficit built across three quarters was too much to erase in one drive. Cam Ward actually outthrew Smith statistically, 26 of 38 for 222 yards, and Van Jefferson was the game's leading receiver with 4 catches for 75 yards. None of it mattered with three turnovers sitting against Tennessee's name.

Form coming in had both sides limping, Las Vegas 1-4 in their last five, Tennessee the same but trending the other way after a win in their most recent outing. The pre-match numbers, an ELO edge of 1370 to 1320 and a projected margin of just 1.3, painted this as a coin flip decided by a point or two. Instead it turned into the Raiders' pass rush and Tennessee's own hands deciding things well before the final whistle. The model called the winner. The scale of it, the model didn't see coming.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 242 | Total Yards | **287** |
| 174 | Passing Yards | **222** |
| **68** | Rushing Yards | 65 |
| 22 | First Downs | **25** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **-11.7** | Offensive EPA | -17.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Las Vegas Raiders to win at 78% probability. The predicted margin of 1.3 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 30 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 15 points below Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Las Vegas Raiders bucked the trend, Tennessee Titans historically win 54% of games under Carl Cheffers, but couldn't convert that edge today. Las Vegas Raiders's home victory fits Carl Cheffers's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Las Vegas Raiders to win @ $1.54 (edge +12.6%) — model probability 77.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Las Vegas Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Las Vegas Raiders here: 78% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Las Vegas Raiders sit 50 ELO points clear, 1370 to 1320.

Las Vegas Raiders own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Quarterback. The margin model has Las Vegas Raiders by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 46. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Las Vegas Raiders to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Las Vegas Raiders taking the most recent 20-10 in 2025 Week 6.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Geno Smith starts under centre for Las Vegas Raiders, Cam Ward for Tennessee Titans, with Pete Carroll and Brian Callahan calling the shots.

The market has Las Vegas Raiders favourites, Las Vegas Raiders $1.54 and Tennessee Titans $2.54, with the spread at Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Las Vegas Raiders 6 · Tennessee Titans 6 |
| Last meeting | Las Vegas Raiders 20-10 (2025) |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-6 away |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Geno Smith · Cam Ward |
| Head coaches | Pete Carroll · Brian Callahan |
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders $1.54 · Tennessee Titans $2.54 |
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tennessee Titans

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 1W–3L | 25% |
| Tennessee Titans | 7W–6L | 54% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Carl Cheffers officiates, Tennessee Titans have won 7 of 13 games (54%), significantly stronger than Las Vegas Raiders's 1 from 4 (25%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 16.6pts | Avg Score | 14.6pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.2pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | -13.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | W1 W · W2 L · W3 L · W4 L · W5 L | 16.6 |
| Tennessee Titans | W1 L · W2 L · W3 L · W4 L · W5 W | 14.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Las Vegas Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W6 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 – 10 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2022 | W3 | Tennessee Titans | 24 – 22 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2019 | W14 | Las Vegas Raiders | 21 – 42 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2017 | W1 | Tennessee Titans | 16 – 26 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2016 | W3 | Tennessee Titans | 10 – 17 | Las Vegas Raiders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (1·0·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.90 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·3·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/18g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/19g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Justin Shorter | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/14g | 5% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.80 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Calvin Ridley | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | David Martin-Robinson | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tennessee Titans** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Calvin Ridley — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- ⚡ Elic Ayomanor — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 1 TD across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Martin-Robinson

**Las Vegas Raiders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 49% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Tre Tucker 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Other scorers this game: M.Mayer

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Las Vegas Raiders 1370 · Tennessee Titans 1320 · ELO difference: 50 in favour of Las Vegas Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Las Vegas Raiders | Tennessee Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 38 | 26 | Las Vegas Raiders +12 |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 48 | Even |
| Backfield | 44 | 48 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 51 | Even |
| Secondary | 51 | 51 | Even |
| Special Teams | 56 | 73 | Tennessee Titans +17 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Las Vegas Raiders predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-12 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)