# Jacksonville Jaguars v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Week 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – 20 Seattle Seahawks

_Seattle Seahawks soar past Jacksonville Jaguars._

Half time: 6 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 56% / Seattle Seahawks 44% · TIAA Bank Stadium · Mon, 13 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Jacksonville Jaguars: Thomas (14'), Tim Patrick (47') · Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (22' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Kupp (35')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 56% | Lost |
| Seattle Seahawks | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.6 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 6, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Jacksonville Jaguars 12–20 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 6 at TIAA Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At half-time it was Seattle Seahawks 13, Jacksonville Jaguars 6, and the second half only firmed up that lead rather than swinging it back. Cooper Kupp scored early in the third quarter to make it 19-6, Seattle added the extra point to go 20-6, and Jacksonville's only response all night came from Tim Patrick with 13:08 left in the fourth. Final score: Seattle Seahawks 20, Jacksonville Jaguars 12.

Jacksonville actually led first. Brian Thomas Jr. got them on the board late in the first quarter, and Jacksonville took a 6-0 lead into the second. That was as good as it got for them. Seattle hit back through Jaxon Smith-Njigba with 8:42 left in the second quarter, went ahead 9-6, and stretched it to 13-6 by half-time. From there Jacksonville never got the margin back under single figures, let alone level.

The pass rush numbers explain a fair bit of it. Seattle's defence got to Trevor Lawrence 7 times, while Jacksonville could only manage 1 sack on Sam Darnold all night. Lawrence still put up 27 completions from 42 attempts for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns, which is a solid return given how often he was hurried and hit. Darnold needed just 16 completions from 27 attempts to get to 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, more than a full yard per attempt clear of Lawrence's output. On this night, efficiency beat volume.

Smith-Njigba was the standout on the stat sheet: 8 catches for 162 yards and a tou

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 317 | Total Yards | **355** |
| 258 | Passing Yards | **295** |
| 59 | Rushing Yards | **60** |
| **29** | First Downs | 22 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **7** |
| **-1.5** | Offensive EPA | -2.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Seattle Seahawks defied the model's 56% prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.6 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 14 points below Clay Martin's career average of 46. Seattle Seahawks bucked the trend, Jacksonville Jaguars historically win 75% of games under Clay Martin, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.95 (edge +5.1%) — model probability 56.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Jacksonville Jaguars are the call at 56%, but Seattle Seahawks stay live at 44%. The ratings say otherwise: Seattle Seahawks sit 60 ELO points clear, 1550 to 1490, so the model is backing Jacksonville Jaguars against the ratings gap. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Seattle Seahawks.

Jacksonville Jaguars own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Pass Rush, Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Jacksonville Jaguars by 2.6, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Jacksonville Jaguars, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Seattle Seahawks have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 20-12 in 2025 Week 6.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 away, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Trevor Lawrence starts under centre for Jacksonville Jaguars, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Liam Coen and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Jacksonville Jaguars $1.95 and Seattle Seahawks $1.87, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -1.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Jacksonville Jaguars 2 · Seattle Seahawks 6 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 20-12 (2025) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 7-2 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Mike Macdonald |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $1.95 · Seattle Seahawks $1.87 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -1.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Jacksonville Jaguars

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6W–2L | 75% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4W–3L | 57% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Clay Martin officiates, Jacksonville Jaguars have won 6 of 8 games (75%), significantly stronger than Seattle Seahawks's 4 from 7 (57%). Small sample (7 games for Seattle Seahawks).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.4pts | Avg Score | 29.2pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 21.0pts |
| 5.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.2pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W1 W · W2 L · W3 W · W4 W · W5 W | 25.4 |
| Seattle Seahawks | W1 L · W2 W · W3 W · W4 W · W5 L | 29.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 12 – 20 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2021 | W8 | Seattle Seahawks | 31 – 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2017 | W14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 30 – 24 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2013 | W3 | Seattle Seahawks | 45 – 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2009 | W5 | Seattle Seahawks | 41 – 0 | Jacksonville Jaguars |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIAA Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 10/25g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Long | TE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 4/11g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 8/30g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/10g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | — |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 47' |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Tory Horton | WR | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (0·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| – | George Holani | RB | 1 in 5g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Kupp

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Dyami Brown — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Patrick

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1490 · Seattle Seahawks 1550 · ELO difference: 60 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 49 | 67 | Seattle Seahawks +18 |
| Receiving Corps | 47 | 62 | Seattle Seahawks +15 |
| Backfield | 57 | 50 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 |
| Pass Rush | 61 | 57 | Even |
| Secondary | 60 | 55 | Jacksonville Jaguars +5 |
| Special Teams | 61 | 67 | Seattle Seahawks +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-12 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)