# Indianapolis Colts v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Indianapolis Colts 31 – 27 Arizona Cardinals

_Indianapolis Colts survive a scare against Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 14 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Indianapolis Colts 92% / Arizona Cardinals 8% · Lucas Oil Stadium · Mon, 13 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren (4' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Jones (23'), Josh Downs (47'), Jonathan Taylor (56' Tipped ⚡) · Arizona Cardinals: Knight (14'), Trey McBride (37' Tipped ⚡), Greg Dortch (44')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 92% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.8 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Indianapolis Colts vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 6, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Indianapolis Colts 31–27 Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two touchdowns in the space of seven minutes turned this one upside down, and Arizona Cardinals still finished on the wrong side of it. Indianapolis Colts led 14-10 at the break, then watched Trey McBride and Greg Dortch flip it to a 24-17 Cardinals lead by the end of the third quarter. For about twenty minutes, Arizona had every reason to like their position. It didn't hold.

Indianapolis closed it out 31-27 at Lucas Oil Stadium, the same one-score margin that had shadowed the game since Bam Knight's reply in the opening quarter made it 7-6. Josh Downs levelled things at 23-23 with 13:17 left in the fourth, then Jonathan Taylor's touchdown with 4:35 remaining put the Colts in front for good at 30-27. Arizona had one more possession to answer but nothing to show for it, and the Colts held on for the four-point win.

The stat sheet says Arizona probably deserved to be closer than the final scoreboard suggests, if not level. The Cardinals piled up 408 total yards to the Colts' 362, and 41 first downs to 37. Jacoby Brissett threw for 320 yards on 27-of-44 passing with 2 touchdowns and a pick, spreading it around behind a Cardinals offence that had no trouble moving the ball through the air. Daniel Jones was tidier for Indianapolis: 22 of 30 for 212 yards, also 2 touchdowns and a pick, a much shorter night's work for a similar return.

Where Indianapolis actually won the game was on the ground and in the margins. The Colts ran for 150 yards to Arizona's 88, more than a third of their entire offensive output coming via the rush. Jonathan Taylor was the difference-maker there, 123 yards on 21 carries and a touchdown, the kind of backfield performance you'd expect given Indianapolis rated a 89 to Arizona's 49 in that department coming in. Zay Jones led all receivers regardless of team, 5 catches for 79 yards, but it was Taylor's work between the tackles that mattered more when the scoreboard was on the line.

Turnovers were even, one apiece, so it wasn't a case of Arizona beating themselves. Indianapolis got 2 sacks to Arizona's 1, and their offensive EPA of 8.4 against Arizona's 6.3 suggests the Colts were simply more efficient when it counted, even while trailing on yardage and first downs. That's the story of a lot of these tight finishes: the team doing less with the ball still finding more value from what they do.

None of it should come as a huge shock. Indianapolis walked in as 4-6 favourites in the pre-match ratings, 76 to 43 at quarterback and a heavy edge in the backfield, and they'd won four of their last five games averaging 32.6 points a game. Arizona's form read WWLLL across their last five, a side trending the wrong way. Alphr's model had Indianapolis by 4.8 points and gave them a 92% chance of winning. The actual margin was 4. Not much more to add there: the model called this one about as well as a model can.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 7 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 362 | Total Yards | **408** |
| 212 | Passing Yards | **320** |
| **150** | Rushing Yards | 88 |
| 37 | First Downs | **41** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **8.4** | Offensive EPA | 6.3 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Indianapolis Colts to win at 92% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Indianapolis Colts by 4.8 vs the actual margin of 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 13 points above Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.21 (edge +9.3%) — model probability 91.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 5 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Indianapolis Colts here: 92% to see off Arizona Cardinals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Indianapolis Colts sit 53 ELO points clear, 1517 to 1463. Form leans Indianapolis Colts' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Arizona Cardinals.

Indianapolis Colts own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Indianapolis Colts by 4.8, with the two sides combining for about 48. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Indianapolis Colts to win, not to win big.

Indianapolis Colts have won 4 of the last 6 between these two, and Indianapolis Colts took the most recent meeting 31-27 in 2025 Week 6.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Daniel Jones starts under centre for Indianapolis Colts, Kyler Murray for Arizona Cardinals, with Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon calling the shots.

The market has Indianapolis Colts favourites, Indianapolis Colts $1.21 and Arizona Cardinals $4.60, with the spread at Indianapolis Colts -8.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Indianapolis Colts 4 · Arizona Cardinals 2 |
| Last meeting | Indianapolis Colts 31-27 (2025) |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 6-3 home |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Quarterbacks | Daniel Jones · Kyler Murray |
| Head coaches | Shane Steichen · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | Indianapolis Colts $1.21 · Arizona Cardinals $4.60 |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -8.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 2W–5L | 29% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 1W–2L | 33% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Shawn Hochuli, Indianapolis Colts 2W–5L (29%) and Arizona Cardinals 1W–2L (33%). Small sample (3 games for Arizona Cardinals).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 32.6pts | Avg Score | 20.6pts |
| 17.8pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Margin | 1.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | W1 W · W2 W · W3 W · W4 L · W5 W | 32.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W1 W · W2 W · W3 L · W4 L · W5 L | 20.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Indianapolis Colts lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W6 | Indianapolis Colts | 31 – 27 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2021 | W16 | Arizona Cardinals | 16 – 22 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2017 | W2 | Indianapolis Colts | 13 – 16 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2013 | W12 | Arizona Cardinals | 40 – 11 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2009 | W3 | Arizona Cardinals | 10 – 31 | Indianapolis Colts |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lucas Oil Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 7 in 5g | 14/10g (1·0·3·2·1·0·1·3·0·3) | 0/1g | 34/37g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.36 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $3.80 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 11/43g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 38% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 2/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/26g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/34g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/19g | 17% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/47g | 12% | — | — |

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bam Knight | RB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $18.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/24g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Simi Fehoko | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zay Jones | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Marvin Harrison Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Cardinals: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: Z.Knight, G.Dortch

**Indianapolis Colts** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 1 pass) · model 59% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Michael Pittman — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyler Warren — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Alec Pierce — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Colts: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Jones, J.Downs

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Indianapolis Colts 1517 · Arizona Cardinals 1463 · ELO difference: 53 in favour of Indianapolis Colts

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Indianapolis Colts | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 76 | 43 | Indianapolis Colts +33 |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 59 | Indianapolis Colts +5 |
| Backfield | 89 | 49 | Indianapolis Colts +40 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 51 | Even |
| Secondary | 58 | 57 | Even |
| Special Teams | 61 | 61 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 92%** — Indianapolis Colts predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r6-indianapolis-colts-v-arizona-cardinals
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-10-12 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)