# Green Bay Packers v Cincinnati Bengals — NFL Week 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Green Bay Packers 27 – 18 Cincinnati Bengals

_Green Bay Packers muscle past Cincinnati Bengals._

Half time: 10 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Green Bay Packers 97% / Cincinnati Bengals 3% · Lambeau Field · Mon, 13 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs (26' Tipped ⚡), Josh Jacobs (45' Tipped ⚡), Tucker Kraft (53' Tipped ⚡) · Cincinnati Bengals: Tanner Hudson (41'), Ja'Marr Chase (56' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 97% | Won |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.1 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 6, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Oct 2025, 07:25 am_

Green Bay Packers 27–18 Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Week 6 at Lambeau Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Green Bay led by ten before Cincinnati managed a first down that mattered, and the Bengals never got the gap back under single digits. Final score: Green Bay Packers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 18, and the scoreboard pressure told the story of the whole afternoon, Green Bay setting the pace, Cincinnati chasing a lead that kept stretching whenever they got close.

The shape of it was simple enough. Nil-all through the first quarter, then Josh Jacobs broke it open with 4:08 left in the second to make it 9-0, and Green Bay took a 10-0 lead into the sheds. Cincinnati's response didn't arrive until Tanner Hudson's touchdown with 4:50 left in the third, and even then it only pulled them to within three, 10-7 by the end of the quarter. That's about as close as the Bengals got.

The fourth quarter is where it became safe. Jacobs scored his second to open the frame, 16-7, then Tucker Kraft made it 23-10 with 7:42 left. Ja'Marr Chase answered with 4:17 to go to drag it back to 24-16, but by then Green Bay had banked too much. The final margin closed at 27-18, nine points, almost bang on the model's pre-match number of 15.1 once you account for how tight the last stretch actually played.

Total yards read 412 to 274 in Green Bay's favour, and the ground game did plenty of the heavy lifting: 153 rushing yards, more than a third of the Packers' output, against just 55 for Cincinnati. That gap lines up with the positional read coming in, Green Bay's backfield rated 61 to Cincinnati's 30, and Jacobs cashed it in with 93 yards on 18 carries to go with his two scores.

Through the air Jordan Love was efficient rather than flashy, 19 from 26 for 259 yards and a touchdown, with one interception the one blemish on an otherwise tidy day. Joe Flacco threw more, 29 from 45 for 219 and two touchdowns, but needed the extra volume to get there. Green Bay's offensive EPA of 12.3 against Cincinnati's 5.7 says the same thing in different language: snap for snap, Green Bay was doing more with less.

Cincinnati's one bright spot wore number one. Ja'Marr Chase finished with 10 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown, comfortably the game's leading target, and he was the reason the Bengals stayed within shouting distance as long as they did. Hudson's touchdown gave them a foothold, Chase's gave them one more twitch of hope late, but neither changed who was leading when it counted.

Oddly enough, Green Bay were the ones who coughed up the only turnover of the game, one to nil, and still walked off with the extra nine points. Cincinnati came in off a rough form line, one win in their last five, an average margin of minus 14.2, and it showed in the periods they couldn't find scoreboard pressure of their own. Alphr's model had Green Bay at 97 percent to win with a combined total of 45, and the game finished at exactly that number. Not a bad piece of forecasting, even if the margin took the scenic route to get there.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 10 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| **412** | Total Yards | 274 |
| **259** | Passing Yards | 219 |
| **153** | Rushing Yards | 55 |
| **34** | First Downs | 29 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **12.3** | Offensive EPA | 5.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Green Bay Packers to win at 97% probability. The predicted margin of 15.1 was reasonable against the actual 9-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 45, within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Brad Allen's career average of 45. Green Bay Packers's victory aligns with Brad Allen's historical trend, Green Bay Packers have a 75% win rate under this referee. Green Bay Packers's home victory fits Brad Allen's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.10 (edge +5.9%) — model probability 96.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Green Bay Packers -14 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 15 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Green Bay Packers here: 97% to see off Cincinnati Bengals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 115 ELO points clear, 1595 to 1480.

Green Bay Packers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Green Bay Packers by 15.1, with the two sides combining for about 45. Green Bay Packers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is even: 3 wins each from the last 6 meetings, Green Bay Packers taking the most recent 27-18 in 2025 Week 6.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 away, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Jordan Love starts under centre for Green Bay Packers, Joe Flacco for Cincinnati Bengals, with Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor calling the shots.

Green Bay Packers come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Green Bay Packers $1.10 and Cincinnati Bengals $7.50, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -14 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Green Bay Packers 3 · Cincinnati Bengals 3 |
| Last meeting | Green Bay Packers 27-18 (2025) |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 5-3 home |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 away |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jordan Love · Joe Flacco |
| Head coaches | Matt LaFleur · Zac Taylor |
| Rest | Green Bay Packers 14d · Cincinnati Bengals 7d |
| Market | Green Bay Packers $1.10 · Cincinnati Bengals $7.50 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -14 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Green Bay Packers

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 9W–3L | 75% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4W–6L | 40% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Allen officiates, Green Bay Packers have won 9 of 12 games (75%), significantly stronger than Cincinnati Bengals's 4 from 10 (40%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 17.0pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 31.2pts |
| 1.6pts | Avg Margin | -14.2pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | WC L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 L · W4 D | 22.8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | W1 W · W2 W · W3 L · W4 L · W5 L | 17.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Green Bay Packers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W6 | Green Bay Packers | 27 – 18 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2021 | W5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 22 – 25 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2017 | W3 | Green Bay Packers | 27 – 24 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2013 | W3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 34 – 30 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2009 | W2 | Green Bay Packers | 24 – 31 | Cincinnati Bengals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lambeau Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 4 in 4g | 12/10g (3·1·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·2) | 0/3g | 9/12g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.41 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $3.80 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 26' 45' |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 0/0g | 7/23g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/18g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/22g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 2 in 5g | 7/10g (0·1·1·3·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Drew Sample | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Joe Flacco | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Hudson | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 41' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Tee Higgins 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- Rest of the Bengals: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Hudson

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 58% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Romeo Doubs — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Tucker Kraft — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Packers: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Green Bay Packers 1595 · Cincinnati Bengals 1480 · ELO difference: 115 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Green Bay Packers | Cincinnati Bengals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 63 | 14 | Green Bay Packers +49 |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 53 | Green Bay Packers +11 |
| Backfield | 61 | 30 | Green Bay Packers +31 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 50 | Green Bay Packers +5 |
| Secondary | 52 | 57 | Cincinnati Bengals +5 |
| Special Teams | 66 | 53 | Green Bay Packers +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Green Bay Packers |

**Model Confidence: 97%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-12 20:25 UTC (latest tip update)