# Baltimore Ravens v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Baltimore Ravens 3 – 17 Los Angeles Rams

_Los Angeles Rams ram past Baltimore Ravens._

Half time: 3 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Baltimore Ravens 5% / Los Angeles Rams 95% · M&T Bank Stadium · Mon, 13 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Baltimore Ravens: none · Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (34' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Higbee (35')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 95% | Won |
| Baltimore Ravens | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.6 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 6, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Baltimore Ravens 3–17 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 6 at M&T Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Baltimore Ravens ground it out. Los Angeles Rams took what mattered. That's the whole story of a 17-3 win at M&T Bank Stadium, and the box score backs it up in a way that should worry anyone who thinks yards equal points.

The Ravens finished with 319 total yards to the Rams' 255. They'd have taken that number all day. Problem is, none of it turned into touchdowns. Baltimore leaned on Derrick Henry, who ran for 122 yards on 24 carries, and rushing made up 179 of their 319 yards, better than half their output. Patient, physical, going nowhere on the scoreboard.

The Rams didn't need the volume. Matthew Stafford went 17-of-26 for 181 yards and a touchdown, and Los Angeles turned four sacks and a plus-one turnover margin into exactly the kind of efficient, low-fuss afternoon their offensive EPA of minus-3 suggests, miles better than Baltimore's minus-18.5. When a team is that far clear on efficiency, the raw yardage column becomes decoration.

The game was locked at 3-3 through halftime, still very much alive. It cracked open in the third quarter. Kyren Williams scored with 11:55 left to make it 9-3, then Tyler Higbee followed up five minutes later to push it to 16-3. Baltimore never answered, and the scoreboard sat frozen at 17-3 the rest of the way. Two scores in five minutes, and the contest was effectively over.

Cooper Rush's day tells the same tale from the losing side: 11-of-19 for 72 yards and a pick, nowhere near enough support for a running game that was otherwise doing its job. Three turnovers against one is the kind of ledger that erases a 64-yard rushing advantage without much fuss.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the positional ratings beforehand. The Rams held the edge everywhere that mattered, quarterback 63 to 38, pass rush 58 to 45, receiving corps 64 to 59. Baltimore came in on a 1-4 stretch conceding an average of 35.4 points a game, while Los Angeles arrived 3-2 with a positive average margin. The form lines pointed one way, and the sack count, four to two, was exactly the sort of pressure differential you'd expect from that gap up front.

Alphr's model had the Rams at 95% to win before kickoff and picked the margin at 11.6 points. Final margin was 14, close enough to call it a sharp read. The total was where things drifted: the model expected 45 combined points, and the teams produced 20, a game that stayed error-strewn and low-scoring rather than the shootout projected.

Baltimore will look at 319 yards and wonder how it produced three points. The answer is in the other columns: three turnovers, two sacks made against four allowed, and an EPA gap that shows a team moving the chains without ever threatening to cross the line. Los Angeles Rams did less, more efficiently, and that's what won it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 17 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| **319** | Total Yards | 255 |
| 140 | Passing Yards | **181** |
| **179** | Rushing Yards | 74 |
| 23 | First Downs | **24** |
| 3 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -18.5 | Offensive EPA | **-3** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 95% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Los Angeles Rams by 11.6 vs the actual margin of 14 points. The game's 20 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 26 points below Alex Kemp's career average of 46. Los Angeles Rams bucked the trend, Baltimore Ravens historically win 83% of games under Alex Kemp, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Alex Kemp's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Los Angeles Rams prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.28 (edge +17.4%) — model probability 95.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens +7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 12 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Rams here: 95% to see off Baltimore Ravens. Form leans Los Angeles Rams' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Baltimore Ravens.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 6 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 11.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Los Angeles Rams to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Baltimore Ravens have won 5 of the last 9 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 17-3 in 2025 Week 6.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Lamar Jackson starts under centre for Baltimore Ravens, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with John Harbaugh and Sean McVay calling the shots.

Los Angeles Rams come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Baltimore Ravens $3.80 and Los Angeles Rams $1.28, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -7 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Baltimore Ravens 5 · Los Angeles Rams 4 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 17-3 (2025) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 3-6 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | John Harbaugh · Sean McVay |
| Rest | Baltimore Ravens 7d · Los Angeles Rams 10d |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $3.80 · Los Angeles Rams $1.28 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -7 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Baltimore Ravens

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 5W–1L | 83% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2W–1L | 67% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Kemp officiates, Baltimore Ravens have won 5 of 6 games (83%), significantly stronger than Los Angeles Rams's 2 from 3 (67%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Los Angeles Rams).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 28.2pts | Avg Score | 24.6pts |
| 35.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.4pts |
| -7.2pts | Avg Margin | 3.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W1 L · W2 W · W3 L · W4 L · W5 L | 28.2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W1 W · W2 W · W3 L · W4 W · W5 L | 24.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W6 | Baltimore Ravens | 3 – 17 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2023 | W14 | Baltimore Ravens | 37 – 31 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2021 | W17 | Baltimore Ravens | 19 – 20 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2019 | W12 | Los Angeles Rams | 6 – 45 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2015 | W11 | Baltimore Ravens | 16 – 13 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 4 in 5g | 10/10g (0·1·2·2·1·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 15/14g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.97 AI 60% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 6/41g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 28/59g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/31g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.25 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/20g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/21g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 36% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/14g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Rush | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 8/26g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 9% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Huntley | QB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 17% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.72 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 34' |
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 3 in 5g | 8/10g (1·2·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 2/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.18 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 46% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 48% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 46% · no TD
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Higbee

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 60% · no TD
- ⚡ Zay Flowers — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Rashod Bateman — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 11 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1542 · Los Angeles Rams 1558 · ELO difference: 17 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 38 | 63 | Los Angeles Rams +25 |
| Receiving Corps | 59 | 64 | Los Angeles Rams +5 |
| Backfield | 47 | 53 | Los Angeles Rams +6 |
| Pass Rush | 45 | 58 | Los Angeles Rams +13 |
| Secondary | 55 | 60 | Los Angeles Rams +5 |
| Special Teams | 63 | 66 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Los Angeles Rams |

**Model Confidence: 95%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-12 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)