# Seattle Seahawks v Tampa Bay Buccaneers — NFL Week 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 35 – 38 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

_Tampa Bay Buccaneers survive a scare against Seattle Seahawks._

Half time: 7 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 81% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19% · Lumen Field · Mon, 06 Oct, 07:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (30' Tipped ⚡), Zach Charbonnet (32' Tipped ⚡), AJ Barner (41'), AJ Barner (51'), Tory Horton (57') · Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rachaad White (28' Tipped ⚡), Emeka Egbuka (38' Tipped ⚡), Rachaad White (45' Tipped ⚡), Sterling Shepard (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 81% | Lost |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 19% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 5, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Oct 2025, 07:05 am_

Seattle Seahawks 35–38 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 5 at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seattle Seahawks never really got in front for long, and that's the story of the 38-35 loss to Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lumen Field. Tampa Bay led at the end of every quarter but the last, and even then they found four more points when it mattered.

The gap opened early. Tampa Bay were up 3-0 after the first quarter, then Rachaad White's first touchdown stretched it to 12-0 before Seattle got on the board through Jaxon Smith-Njigba to make it 13-6 at the break, 13-7 by the official half-time count. Every time Seattle Seahawks threatened to level things, Tampa Bay Buccaneers had an answer ready.

The third quarter was where this one turned into a shootout. Zach Charbonnet tied it at 13-13, only for Emeka Egbuka to put Tampa Bay back in front. AJ Barner's first touchdown pulled Seattle within a point at 20-21, and Rachaad White's second put Tampa Bay Buccaneers up 21-27, then 21-28 by quarter's end. Four lead changes and ties inside twelve minutes of game clock. Not a lot of defence being played by either side.

Seattle Seahawks came out swinging in the fourth. Barner's second touchdown made it 27-28, and Tory Horton's score with 3:25 left put the home side in front for the first time since the opening minutes, 34-28. It lasted less than two and a half minutes. Sterling Shepard's touchdown brought Tampa Bay level at 34, and the Buccaneers found the extra points to close out 38-35.

Total yards actually favoured Seattle Seahawks, 463 to 435, and they had the better rushing day by a distance, 122 yards to just 56. None of it mattered with the ball changing hands. Seattle Seahawks turned it over twice, Tampa Bay Buccaneers not once, and in a game decided by three points that's the whole margin right there.

Individually it was hard to separate the passers. Sam Darnold went 28 of 34 for 341 yards and four touchdowns but the one interception cost dearly. Baker Mayfield answered with 29 of 33 for 379 yards. Egbuka was the standout skill player on the field regardless of side, seven catches for 163 yards and the score that put Tampa Bay back in front in the third. Kenneth Walker III did what he could underneath, 86 yards on just 10 carries, but a ground game that good rarely gets the credit when the other team keeps finding the end zone.

Alphr's model had Seattle Seahawks

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 0 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 35 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| **463** | Total Yards | 435 |
| 341 | Passing Yards | **379** |
| **122** | Rushing Yards | 56 |
| **42** | First Downs | 40 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **1** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| 21.9 | Offensive EPA | **22.9** |

**Model Report Card**

Tampa Bay Buccaneers defied the model's 81% prediction for Seattle Seahawks, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.7 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 73 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The combined score of 73 points was 28 points above Craig Wrolstad's career average of 45. Tampa Bay Buccaneers bucked the trend, Seattle Seahawks historically win 50% of games under Craig Wrolstad, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.56 (edge +17.0%) — model probability 81.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 5 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 81% to see off Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Seattle Seahawks to win, not to win big.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers took the most recent meeting 38-35 in 2025 Week 5.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, Baker Mayfield for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Mike Macdonald and Todd Bowles calling the shots.

Seattle Seahawks come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Seattle Seahawks $1.56 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers $2.50, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -3.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Seattle Seahawks 5 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 |
| Last meeting | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-35 (2025) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-5 away |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · Baker Mayfield |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Todd Bowles |
| Rest | Seattle Seahawks 10d · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7d |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.56 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers $2.50 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Seattle Seahawks

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 3W–3L | 50% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4W–7L | 36% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

Seattle Seahawks hold a 14-point edge: 3W–3L (50%) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers's 4W–7L (36%). Small sample (6 games for Seattle Seahawks).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 28.2pts | Avg Score | 23.4pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| 9.8pts | Avg Margin | -0.6pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W18 W · W1 L · W2 W · W3 W · W4 W | 28.2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | WC L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W · W4 L | 23.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W5 | Seattle Seahawks | 35 – 38 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2022 | W10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 21 – 16 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2019 | W9 | Seattle Seahawks | 40 – 34 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2016 | W12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14 – 5 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2013 | W9 | Seattle Seahawks | 27 – 24 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 13/23g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.08 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tory Horton | WR | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 38% | — | 🏉 41' 51' |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 6/17g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' |
| – | George Holani | RB | 1 in 4g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 10/19g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 0/6g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bobo | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Milroe | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 4 in 4g | 4/4g (2·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 21% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' 45' |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Josh Williams | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Payne Durham | TE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Chris Godwin Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 4 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Rachaad White — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 21% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: S.Shepard

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Seahawks: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Barner, T.Horton

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1567 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1549 · ELO difference: 18 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 64 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 56 | Even |
| Backfield | 47 | 52 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 |
| Pass Rush | 64 | 47 | Seattle Seahawks +17 |
| Secondary | 55 | 59 | Even |
| Special Teams | 70 | 70 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Seattle Seahawks |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-05 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)