# New Orleans Saints v New York Giants — NFL Week 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New Orleans Saints 26 – 14 New York Giants

_New Orleans Saints march past New York Giants._

Half time: 16 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New Orleans Saints 85% / New York Giants 15% · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Mon, 06 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New Orleans Saints: Rashid Shaheed (25' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Howden (45') · New York Giants: Theo Johnson (6'), Theo Johnson (17')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 85% | Won |
| New York Giants | 15% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.1 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 5, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

New Orleans Saints 26–14 New York Giants in NFL Week 5 at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New Orleans Saints beat New York Giants 26-14 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and on the scoreboard that reads like a tidy, two-score win. The yardage sheet tells a different story. The Giants actually outgained the Saints, 338 to 332, and had more first downs, 31 to 25. So much for the final margin being about who played the better football.

What actually decided it was ball security, and it wasn't close. New York coughed it up five times. New Orleans didn't cough it up once. You can move the chains all day, but five turnovers will bury you regardless, and the Saints' offensive EPA of 3 against the Giants' minus 14.6 says exactly how badly those giveaways bled points off the board.

The game didn't start as a rout. Theo Johnson opened the scoring for New York inside the first quarter and struck again early in the second, and at one stage the Giants led 13-3. Rashid Shaheed answered for New Orleans with 5:27 left in the half, and the Saints went into the break up 16-14. Tight game, honest game, right up until it wasn't.

The third quarter was quiet on the scoreboard, just a field goal nudging New Orleans to 19-14, but the floodgates opened to start the fourth. A J.Howden touchdown at the top of the final period made it 25-14, and New Orleans coasted home from there at 26-14. The Giants had almost sixteen minutes to find an answer and didn't find one.

Through the air, Spencer Rattler was efficient rather than spectacular, 21 of 31 for 225 yards and the one score. Jaxson Dart threw for more, 202 yards and 26 completions on 40 attempts, with two touchdowns to Theo Johnson, but the two interceptions in that ledger are the number that matters. Cam Skattebo was the best runner on the field, 59 yards on 15 carries, and the Giants' 136 rushing yards to New Orleans' 88 lines up with a backfield rating that had them favoured there, 52 to 40, coming in. It just didn't matter with the ball changing hands the way it did.

Shaheed was the difference-maker New Orleans needed from a receiving corps rated stronger pre-match, 60 to 49. Four catches, 114 yards, a touchdown, the clear best individual output of the day. New York's secondary was rated the better unit, 61 to 54, and it didn't stop him.

Both sides came in cold. New Orleans had dropped all five of its last five, New York had won just one of theirs, and neither team's underlying form numbers screamed contender. Alphr's model backed New Orleans at 85 percent to win, with a margin of 9.1 and a total of 41. The final margin came in at 12, the total at 40. Not bad reading for a game that felt tight for a half and wasn't in the end.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 3 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| New York Giants | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 332 | Total Yards | **338** |
| **244** | Passing Yards | 202 |
| 88 | Rushing Yards | **136** |
| 25 | First Downs | **31** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 5 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **3** | Offensive EPA | -14.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New Orleans Saints to win at 85% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting New Orleans Saints by 9.1 vs the actual margin of 12 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 5 points below Alan Eck's career average of 45. New Orleans Saints's victory aligns with Alan Eck's historical trend, New Orleans Saints have a 40% win rate under this referee. New Orleans Saints's home victory fits Alan Eck's profile, home teams win 67% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New Orleans Saints to win @ $1.83 (edge +30.3%) — model probability 84.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New Orleans Saints -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New Orleans Saints by 9 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on New Orleans Saints here: 85% to see off New York Giants. Form leans New York Giants' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for New Orleans Saints.

On paper New York Giants shade it, ahead on 2 of 6 factors including Secondary and Recent Form. The model still sides with New Orleans Saints, which says Pass Rush carry the most weight. The margin model has New Orleans Saints by 9.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. New Orleans Saints to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

New Orleans Saints have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and New Orleans Saints took the most recent meeting 26-14 in 2025 Week 5.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 1-8 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Spencer Rattler starts under centre for New Orleans Saints, Jaxson Dart for New York Giants, with Kellen Moore and Brian Daboll calling the shots.

The market has New Orleans Saints favourites, New Orleans Saints $1.83 and New York Giants $2.00, with the spread at New Orleans Saints -1.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New Orleans Saints 8 · New York Giants 4 |
| Last meeting | New Orleans Saints 26-14 (2025) |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 home |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 1-8 away |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Spencer Rattler · Jaxson Dart |
| Head coaches | Kellen Moore · Brian Daboll |
| Market | New Orleans Saints $1.83 · New York Giants $2.00 |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -1.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New Orleans Saints

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 2W–3L | 40% |
| New York Giants | 0W–1L | 0% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alan Eck officiates, New Orleans Saints have won 2 of 5 games (40%), significantly stronger than New York Giants's 0 from 1 (0%). Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (1 games for New York Giants).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 17.0pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 29.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.2pts |
| -12.6pts | Avg Margin | -7.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | W18 L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L · W4 L | 17.0 |
| New York Giants | W18 L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L · W4 W | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New Orleans Saints lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W5 | New Orleans Saints | 26 – 14 | New York Giants |
| 2024 | W14 | New York Giants | 11 – 14 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2023 | W15 | New Orleans Saints | 24 – 6 | New York Giants |
| 2021 | W4 | New Orleans Saints | 21 – 27 | New York Giants |
| 2018 | W4 | New York Giants | 18 – 33 | New Orleans Saints |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 47/64g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.05 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/19g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 10/30g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.25 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kendre Miller | RB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/8g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/17g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 6/12g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Spencer Rattler | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Taysom Hill | TE | no games | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·3·0) | 2/3g | 23/52g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Velus Jones Jr. | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cam Skattebo | RB | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.84 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.80 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 6' 17' |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Beaux Collins | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Darius Slayton | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jalin Hyatt | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Giants** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Cam Skattebo 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 4 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Johnson

**New Orleans Saints** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Alvin Kamara 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Taysom Hill 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Rashid Shaheed — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Howden

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** New York Giants hold the ELO advantage (1371 vs 1365), but the market favours New Orleans Saints (@1.83). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — New Orleans Saints 1365 · New York Giants 1371 · ELO difference: 6 in favour of New York Giants

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 48 | 45 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 49 | New Orleans Saints +11 |
| Backfield | 40 | 52 | New York Giants +12 |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 54 | New Orleans Saints +6 |
| Secondary | 54 | 61 | New York Giants +7 |
| Special Teams | 58 | 53 | New Orleans Saints +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New York Giants |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New York Giants |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 85%** — New Orleans Saints predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-05 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)