# Los Angeles Rams v San Francisco 49ers — NFL Week 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Rams 23 – 26 San Francisco 49ers

_San Francisco 49ers hold off a fast-finishing Los Angeles Rams._

Half time: 7 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Rams 81% / San Francisco 49ers 19% · SoFi Stadium · Fri, 03 Oct, 10:15 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (28' Tipped ⚡), Puka Nacua (42' Tipped ⚡), Kyren Williams (50' Tipped ⚡) · San Francisco 49ers: Jake Tonges (5'), Christian McCaffrey (17' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 81% | Lost |
| San Francisco 49ers | 19% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.1 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 5, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Oct 2025, 10:15 am_

Los Angeles Rams 23–26 San Francisco 49ers in NFL Week 5 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

San Francisco won this one 26-23 in overtime, but start with the losing side of the ledger, because the Rams did plenty right and still walked away empty-handed.

Los Angeles out-gained the 49ers 467 yards to 416. Matthew Stafford threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns on 30-of-47. Kyren Williams ran for 65 yards on 14 carries and scored twice, Puka Nacua added the third. On paper, this was meant to be the Rams' game. They rated stronger at quarterback (59 to 54), receiving corps (59 to 47), pass rush (59 to 49) and secondary (57 to 49). Alphr's model had them favoured by 12.1 points, an 81% chance to win. None of that showed up where it mattered, and the 49ers' win goes down as a genuine upset against the model's read.

Two turnovers against zero for San Francisco is the number that decided it. The Rams moved the ball well enough to win most weeks, but every time they coughed it up, the 49ers made them pay. San Francisco needed fewer yards to do more damage: their offensive EPA of 10.2 dwarfed the Rams' 4.4, which tells you that snap for snap they were the sharper side even while trailing on the yardage sheet. First downs went San Francisco's way too, 44 to 41. That's the gap between a stat line that looks good and a scoreboard that doesn't care.

The arc of the game backs it up. Jake Tonges opened the scoring for San Francisco with 10:12 left in the first quarter, and Christian McCaffrey stretched it to 13-0 with 13:47 to go in the second. By half-time it was 17-7 to the 49ers. The Rams' response was a genuine grind. Kyren Williams got them within a score late in the second quarter, Puka Nacua's touchdown early in the fourth-final-quarter stretch, in the third, made it 20-13, and Williams' second major with 10:43 left in the fourth levelled things at 20-

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 0 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 23 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| **467** | Total Yards | 416 |
| **389** | Passing Yards | 342 |
| **78** | Rushing Yards | 74 |
| 41 | First Downs | **44** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| 4.4 | Offensive EPA | **10.2** |

**Model Report Card**

San Francisco 49ers defied the model's 81% prediction for Los Angeles Rams, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.1 but the actual margin was 3 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The combined score of 49 points was 4 points above Bill Vinovich's career average of 45. San Francisco 49ers's victory aligns with Bill Vinovich's historical trend, San Francisco 49ers have a 41% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.23 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 80.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 12 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Rams here: 81% to see off San Francisco 49ers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 80 ELO points clear, 1577 to 1497.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 12.1, with the two sides combining for about 40. Los Angeles Rams to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

San Francisco 49ers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 42-26 in 2025 Week 10.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-1 at home, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 away, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Matthew Stafford starts under centre for Los Angeles Rams, Brock Purdy for San Francisco 49ers, with Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Los Angeles Rams $1.23 and San Francisco 49ers $4.40, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -8.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Rams 5 · San Francisco 49ers 7 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 42-26 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-1 home |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 away |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Matthew Stafford · Brock Purdy |
| Head coaches | Sean McVay · Kyle Shanahan |
| Market | Los Angeles Rams $1.23 · San Francisco 49ers $4.40 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -8.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours San Francisco 49ers

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 4W–8L | 33% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7W–10L | 41% |

Avg total: 44.8 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

San Francisco 49ers hold a 8-point edge: 7W–10L (41%) vs Los Angeles Rams's 4W–8L (33%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.4pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 21.8pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 2.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.6pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | DIV L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 L · W4 W | 24.4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | W18 L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W · W4 L | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | San Francisco 49ers | 26 – 42 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2025 | W5 | Los Angeles Rams | 23 – 26 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | W15 | San Francisco 49ers | 6 – 12 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2024 | W3 | Los Angeles Rams | 27 – 24 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2023 | W18 | San Francisco 49ers | 20 – 21 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 3 in 4g | 9/10g (1·1·2·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 7/7g | 2/6g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/3g | 18/21g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.69 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 50' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 7/15g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.05 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Tutu Atwell | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 3/25g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/13g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/4g | 3/3g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.99 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| – | Jake Tonges | TE | 2 in 4g | 2/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Willis | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/15g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Guerendo | RB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime TD $29.00 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mac Jones | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Malik Turner | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $13.00 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Isaac Guerendo — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · no TD
- ⚡ Marquez Valdes-Scantling — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Tonges

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 44% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- Rest of the Rams: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Rams 1577 · San Francisco 49ers 1497 · ELO difference: 80 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Rams | San Francisco 49ers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 59 | 54 | Los Angeles Rams +5 |
| Receiving Corps | 59 | 47 | Los Angeles Rams +12 |
| Backfield | 46 | 53 | San Francisco 49ers +7 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 49 | Los Angeles Rams +10 |
| Secondary | 57 | 49 | Los Angeles Rams +8 |
| Special Teams | 69 | 59 | Los Angeles Rams +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-03 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)