# Los Angeles Chargers v Washington Commanders — NFL Week 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Chargers 10 – 27 Washington Commanders

_Washington Commanders outflank Los Angeles Chargers._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 18% / Washington Commanders 82% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 06 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Chargers: Ladd McConkey (6' Tipped ⚡) · Washington Commanders: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (26'), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (34'), Samuel (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 82% | Won |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.8 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Commanders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 5, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Oct 2025, 07:25 am_

Los Angeles Chargers 10–27 Washington Commanders in NFL Week 5 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Five sacks to one. That's the number that tells you why Washington Commanders left SoFi Stadium 27-10 winners over Los Angeles Chargers, and why Justin Herbert spent most of the night under siege while Jayden Daniels had time to actually look downfield.

It didn't look that way early. Ladd McConkey's touchdown had the Chargers up 10-0 before the first quarter was out, and it stayed a one-score game deep into the second when Jacory Croskey-Merritt got the Commanders on the board with 4:21 left before half-time. By the break it was locked at 10-10, and anyone reading the scoreboard alone would have called it even. The stat sheet said otherwise.

From there Washington simply took over. Croskey-Merritt scored again early in the third to push it to 16-10, and the Commanders added to it through the third and fourth quarters without reply, Deebo Samuel Sr. finishing it off with 1:14 to go for the 27-10 final. Once the Commanders got their nose in front, Los Angeles never scored again.

The efficiency numbers back up what the sack count suggested. Washington ran +17.2 expected points clear of the Chargers on offensive EPA, a gap that dwarfs the actual yardage difference of 394 to 365. Total yards were close. What separated the sides was what each team did with their opportunities, and Washington's ground game did plenty of the heavy lifting: 163 rushing yards, 41% of their total output, with Croskey-Merritt alone going for 111 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries.

Through the air, Herbert was tidy without being decisive: 22 of 29 for 166 yards, one touchdown, one interception. Daniels threw fewer times and completed less of them, 15 of 26, but made his 231 yards count, finding Deebo Samuel Sr. eight times for 96 yards and a score. Samuel was the clear top target on the night, and the Commanders' receiving corps, rated only marginally ahead of the Chargers' at 59 to 62 pre-match, did enough when it mattered.

The turnover column told its own story too. Los Angeles gave the ball away twice to Washington's one, and against a defence generating that much pressure, those extra chances were costly.

Alphr's model had Washington as 82% favourites going in, and got the winner right. The margin was the miss: a predicted 0.8-point edge to the Commanders turned into a 17-point beatdown, and the total landed well under the forecast 53, finishing at 37. Washington's quarterback rating advantage, 67 to 40 pre-match, and their edge in pass rush, 56 to 48, both showed up exactly where you'd expect: in the pocket pressure and in Daniels' composure under less of it.

For the Chargers, a 3-2 form line over their last five and a defence that had been holding up its end weren't enough once the sacks piled up and the turnovers followed. Wins and misses, all part of the ledger. This one goes down as a comfortable Commanders result built on a pass rush that did exactly what a five-to-one sack count says it did.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Washington Commanders | 0 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| 365 | Total Yards | **394** |
| 210 | Passing Yards | **231** |
| 155 | Rushing Yards | **163** |
| **28** | First Downs | 27 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **5** |
| -3.2 | Offensive EPA | **14** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Washington Commanders to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.8 but the actual margin was 17 points. The game's 37 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 53. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 9 points below John Hussey's career average of 46. Washington Commanders bucked the trend, Los Angeles Chargers historically win 64% of games under John Hussey, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite John Hussey's 66% career home-team win rate, the away side Washington Commanders prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Washington Commanders to win @ $2.30 (edge +38.3%) — model probability 81.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 1 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Washington Commanders here: 82% to see off Los Angeles Chargers. Form leans Los Angeles Chargers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Washington Commanders.

On paper Los Angeles Chargers shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The model still sides with Washington Commanders, which says Quarterback and Pass Rush carry the most weight. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Washington Commanders to win, not to win big.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and Washington Commanders took the most recent meeting 27-10 in 2025 Week 5.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Washington Commanders went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 26.5 against.

Justin Herbert starts under centre for Los Angeles Chargers, Jayden Daniels for Washington Commanders, with Jim Harbaugh and Dan Quinn calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Los Angeles Chargers $1.65 and Washington Commanders $2.30, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Los Angeles Chargers 5 · Washington Commanders 2 |
| Last meeting | Washington Commanders 27-10 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Washington Commanders 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 away |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 20.9 for · 26.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · Jayden Daniels |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · Dan Quinn |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $1.65 · Washington Commanders $2.30 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Chargers

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7W–4L | 64% |
| Washington Commanders | 4W–5L | 44% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

When John Hussey officiates, Los Angeles Chargers have won 7 of 11 games (64%), significantly stronger than Washington Commanders's 4 from 9 (44%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 20.6pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| -0.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | WC L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W · W4 L | 20.0 |
| Washington Commanders | CONF L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W · W4 L | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10 – 27 | Washington Commanders |
| 2021 | W1 | Washington Commanders | 16 – 20 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2017 | W14 | Los Angeles Chargers | 30 – 13 | Washington Commanders |
| 2013 | W9 | Washington Commanders | 30 – 24 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2009 | W17 | Los Angeles Chargers | 23 – 20 | Washington Commanders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 6/18g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 36% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 13/30g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.86 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Hassan Haskins | RB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/42g | 8% | — | — |
| – | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/10g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trey Lance | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Conklin | TE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 12% | — | — |

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 26' 34' |
| – | Luke McCaffrey | WR | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zach Ertz | TE | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylin Lane | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Chris Moore | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Colson Yankoff | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Daniels | QB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | John Bates | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tay Martin | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Washington Commanders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel Sr. 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 33% · new club · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Zach Ertz 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Commanders: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Croskey-Merritt

**Los Angeles Chargers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 4 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Keenan Allen 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q1**

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1557 · Washington Commanders 1537 · ELO difference: 20 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Washington Commanders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 40 | 67 | Washington Commanders +27 |
| Receiving Corps | 62 | 59 | Even |
| Backfield | 56 | 55 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 48 | 56 | Washington Commanders +8 |
| Secondary | 57 | 49 | Los Angeles Chargers +8 |
| Special Teams | 64 | 66 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Washington Commanders predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-05 20:25 UTC (latest tip update)