# Jacksonville Jaguars v Kansas City Chiefs — NFL Week 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Jacksonville Jaguars 31 – 28 Kansas City Chiefs

_Jacksonville Jaguars fight back to hunt down Kansas City Chiefs._

Half time: 7 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 34% / Kansas City Chiefs 66% · TIAA Bank Stadium · Tue, 07 Oct, 11:15 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Jacksonville Jaguars: Parker Washington (28'), Trevor Lawrence (37'), Devin Lloyd (43'), Trevor Lawrence (60') · Kansas City Chiefs: Travis Kelce (11' Tipped ⚡), Patrick Mahomes (20'), Kareem Hunt (48' Tipped ⚡), Kareem Hunt (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 66% | Lost |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.8 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 5, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 Oct 2025, 11:15 am_

Jacksonville Jaguars 31–28 Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 5 at TIAA Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jacksonville Jaguars edged Kansas City Chiefs 31-28 at TIAA Bank Stadium, a one-score game to the end.

Jacksonville Jaguars' touchdowns came through Trevor Lawrence (2), Devin Lloyd and Parker Washington. Kansas City Chiefs' touchdowns came through Kareem Hunt (2), Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.

Kansas City Chiefs outgained Jacksonville Jaguars 476 yards to 330. Jacksonville Jaguars lost the turnover battle 2 to 1, and it showed on the scoreboard. Kansas City Chiefs's pass rush got home 3 times to 0. Kansas City Chiefs did their damage on the ground, 158 rushing yards at 33% of their output. Snap for snap, Kansas City Chiefs were the more efficient offense, +10.4 expected points clear. Through the air it was Trevor Lawrence 18-of-25 for 221, 1 TD, 1 pick against Patrick Mahomes 29-of-41 for 318, 1 TD, 1 pick. Patrick Mahomes led all rushers with 60 yards on 6 carries and 1 TD. Tyquan Thornton was the game's top target: 3 catches, 90 yards.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 31 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| 330 | Total Yards | **476** |
| 221 | Passing Yards | **318** |
| 109 | Rushing Yards | **158** |
| 25 | First Downs | **41** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| 1.5 | Offensive EPA | **11.9** |

**Model Report Card**

Jacksonville Jaguars defied the model's 66% prediction for Kansas City Chiefs, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.8 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 59 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 39. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 59 points was 13 points above Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Jacksonville Jaguars bucked the trend, Kansas City Chiefs historically win 100% of games under Brad Rogers, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.51 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 65.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 4 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Kansas City Chiefs here: 66% to see off Jacksonville Jaguars. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Kansas City Chiefs sit 161 ELO points clear, 1633 to 1472. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Kansas City Chiefs.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Kansas City Chiefs by 3.8, with the two sides combining for about 39. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Kansas City Chiefs to win, not to win big.

Kansas City Chiefs have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 31-28 in 2025 Week 5.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 21.3 points for and 19.3 against.

Trevor Lawrence starts under centre for Jacksonville Jaguars, Patrick Mahomes for Kansas City Chiefs, with Liam Coen and Andy Reid calling the shots.

The market has Kansas City Chiefs favourites, Jacksonville Jaguars $2.64 and Kansas City Chiefs $1.51, with the spread at Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Jacksonville Jaguars 3 · Kansas City Chiefs 9 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 31-28 (2025) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 7-2 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Kansas City Chiefs 2025 so far | 6-11 · 1-7 away |
| Kansas City Chiefs scoring | 21.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Patrick Mahomes |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Andy Reid |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $2.64 · Kansas City Chiefs $1.51 |
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Kansas City Chiefs

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3W–2L | 60% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 45.7 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Kansas City Chiefs have won 5 of 5 games (100%), significantly stronger than Jacksonville Jaguars's 3 from 5 (60%). Small sample (5 games for Jacksonville Jaguars).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 23.8pts | Avg Score | 23.8pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.2pts |
| 4.2pts | Avg Margin | 0.6pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W18 L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W · W4 W | 23.8 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | SB L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 W · W4 W | 23.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Kansas City Chiefs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 31 – 28 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2023 | W2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 – 17 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2022 | DIV | Kansas City Chiefs | 27 – 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2022 | W10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 27 – 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2019 | W1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 26 – 40 | Kansas City Chiefs |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIAA Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 10/24g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.75 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Hunter Long | TE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/9g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/10g | 31% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/13g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/29g | 18% | — | 🏉 37' 60' |

**Kansas City Chiefs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tyquan Thornton | WR | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Mahomes | QB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Isiah Pacheco | RB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Kareem Hunt | RB | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' 59' |
| – | Marquise Brown | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Travis Kelce | TE | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| – | Brashard Smith | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jason Brownlee | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Nikko Remigio | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Worthy | WR | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Xavier Worthy 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Kareem Hunt 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ Travis Kelce — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Chiefs: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: P.Mahomes

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Bhayshul Tuten — 2 TDs in last 4 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: P.Washington, T.Lawrence, D.Lloyd

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1472 · Kansas City Chiefs 1633 · ELO difference: 161 in favour of Kansas City Chiefs

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 46 | 59 | Kansas City Chiefs +13 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 62 | Kansas City Chiefs +9 |
| Backfield | 58 | 47 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 59 | Even |
| Secondary | 61 | 54 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 |
| Special Teams | 70 | 60 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Kansas City Chiefs predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-07 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)