# Indianapolis Colts v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Indianapolis Colts 40 – 6 Las Vegas Raiders

_Indianapolis Colts put Las Vegas Raiders to the sword._

Half time: 20 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Indianapolis Colts 79% / Las Vegas Raiders 21% · Lucas Oil Stadium · Mon, 06 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren (19' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Taylor (22' Tipped ⚡), Michael Pittman (30' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Taylor (39' Tipped ⚡), Ameer Abdullah (40' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Taylor (43' Tipped ⚡) · Las Vegas Raiders: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 79% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.8 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 5, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Indianapolis Colts 40–6 Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 5 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-two minutes of game time turned a comfortable lead into a rout. Indianapolis Colts led 20-3 at the break, tidy enough, but it was the third quarter that buried Las Vegas Raiders. Jonathan Taylor scored at the 6:58 mark, Ameer Abdullah followed a minute later at 5:55, and Taylor was back in for his third at 2:30. Three touchdowns in four and a half minutes. By the time the quarter ended it was 40-3, and the game was done in every sense but the clock.

Final score: Indianapolis Colts 40, Las Vegas Raiders 6. A 34-point margin at Lucas Oil Stadium, and the Raiders never got near the end zone themselves, their six points coming off the boot alone.

Strip out the touchdowns and the stat sheet actually favours Las Vegas Raiders. They outgained the Colts 334 yards to 317 and had the edge through the air, 228 yards to 221. None of it mattered. Two turnovers from the Raiders against zero from Indianapolis did the damage, and a pass rush that got home four times to none turned rhythm into scrambling. Offensive EPA tells the real story: Indianapolis Colts at plus 16.9, Las Vegas Raiders at minus 13.8. That's a 30.7-point gap in efficiency on a night the raw yardage said the opposite.

Jonathan Taylor was the difference-maker, three touchdowns on the ground and the headline act in a backfield the ratings had at 75 against Las Vegas Raiders' 43 coming in. Didn't take long for that gap to show up on the scoreboard. Daniel Jones was efficient rather than spectacular, 20 of 29 for 212 yards and two touchdowns, no picks. Geno Smith threw for more, 228 yards on 25 of 36, but two interceptions cancelled out whatever he built through the air.

For Las Vegas Raiders there were individual numbers worth keeping. Ashton Jeanty ran for 67 yards on 14 carries, the game's leading rusher, and Tre Tucker was the top target on the night with four catches for 62 yards. Neither could turn moving the ball into scoring it. That's been the story of their last five, a 1-4 run with an average margin of minus 7.2 coming in, against a Colts side that arrived 4-1 with a positive margin of 8.6. Form lined up with the scoreboard here.

Alphr's model had Indianapolis Colts favourites at 79 percent, ratings of 1497 to 1389, and got the winner right without fuss. The margin was where it fell short, tipped at 10.8 against an actual 34-point gap, so the model saw the win coming but not the size of it. The total was closer to the mark, 50 predicted against 46 actual, within four points. Wins and misses, all of it.

Special teams rated 86 to 59 in the Colts' favour before kickoff, and receiving corps 66 to 48. Both showed up. When the underlying numbers line up that heavily on both sides of the ball, a 34-point margin stops looking like an outlier and starts looking like the ceiling finally showing itself.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 0 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 40 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 317 | Total Yards | **334** |
| 221 | Passing Yards | **228** |
| 96 | Rushing Yards | **106** |
| **33** | First Downs | 30 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **16.9** | Offensive EPA | -13.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Indianapolis Colts to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.8 but the actual margin was 34 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 46, within 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Alex Kemp's career average of 46. Indianapolis Colts's victory aligns with Alex Kemp's historical trend, Indianapolis Colts have a 44% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.28 (edge +0.4%) — model probability 78.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts -7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 11 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Indianapolis Colts here: 79% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Indianapolis Colts sit 108 ELO points clear, 1497 to 1389. Form leans Indianapolis Colts' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Indianapolis Colts own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Indianapolis Colts by 10.8, with the two sides combining for about 50. Indianapolis Colts to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Indianapolis Colts have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Indianapolis Colts took the most recent meeting 40-6 in 2025 Week 5.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Daniel Jones starts under centre for Indianapolis Colts, Geno Smith for Las Vegas Raiders, with Shane Steichen and Pete Carroll calling the shots.

The market has Indianapolis Colts favourites, Indianapolis Colts $1.28 and Las Vegas Raiders $3.85, with the spread at Indianapolis Colts -7 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Indianapolis Colts 9 · Las Vegas Raiders 3 |
| Last meeting | Indianapolis Colts 40-6 (2025) |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 6-3 home |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Daniel Jones · Geno Smith |
| Head coaches | Shane Steichen · Pete Carroll |
| Market | Indianapolis Colts $1.28 · Las Vegas Raiders $3.85 |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -7 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Indianapolis Colts

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 4W–5L | 44% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0W–0L | 0% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Kemp officiates, Indianapolis Colts have won 4 of 9 games (44%), significantly stronger than Las Vegas Raiders's 0 from 0 (0%). Small sample (0 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 29.8pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.6pts |
| 8.6pts | Avg Margin | -7.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | W18 W · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W · W4 L | 29.8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W18 L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 L · W4 L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Indianapolis Colts lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W5 | Indianapolis Colts | 40 – 6 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2023 | W17 | Indianapolis Colts | 23 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2022 | W10 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 – 25 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2021 | W17 | Indianapolis Colts | 20 – 23 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2020 | W14 | Las Vegas Raiders | 27 – 44 | Indianapolis Colts |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lucas Oil Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 4 in 4g | 11/10g (0·1·0·3·2·1·0·1·3·0) | 5/4g | 31/36g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.45 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 39' 43' |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/2g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 10/42g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $14.00 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Richardson | QB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/9g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/33g | 8% | — | — |
| – | DJ Giddens | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/18g | 20% | — | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 4 in 4g | 4/4g (1·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.05 AI 47% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·3·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Albert Okwuegbunam | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 34% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 4 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 47% · no TD
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Indianapolis Colts** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q2, Q3, Q3**
- ⚡ Michael Pittman 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Ameer Abdullah — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · new club · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Tyler Warren — 1 TD in last 4 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Colts: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Indianapolis Colts 1497 · Las Vegas Raiders 1389 · ELO difference: 108 in favour of Indianapolis Colts

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Indianapolis Colts | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 53 | 51 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 66 | 48 | Indianapolis Colts +18 |
| Backfield | 75 | 43 | Indianapolis Colts +32 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 55 | Las Vegas Raiders +5 |
| Secondary | 56 | 49 | Indianapolis Colts +7 |
| Special Teams | 86 | 59 | Indianapolis Colts +27 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Indianapolis Colts predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-05 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)