# Arizona Cardinals v Tennessee Titans — NFL Week 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Arizona Cardinals 21 – 22 Tennessee Titans

_Tennessee Titans roar back to tower over Arizona Cardinals from 15 down._

Half time: 21 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Arizona Cardinals 87% / Tennessee Titans 13% · State Farm Stadium · Mon, 06 Oct, 07:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Arizona Cardinals: Michael Carter (5'), Kyler Murray (15' Tipped ⚡), Knight (20') · Tennessee Titans: Tony Pollard (50' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Lockett (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 87% | Lost |
| Tennessee Titans | 13% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.6 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 5, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Oct 2025, 07:05 am_

Arizona Cardinals 21–22 Tennessee Titans in NFL Week 5 at State Farm Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model gave Arizona Cardinals an 87% chance and pencilled in a win by 8.6, with the total sitting at 44. Tennessee Titans won anyway, 22-21, and the combined score landed at 43, one point off the model's number. So the shape of the game was almost exactly right. Who walked away with it was not.

Rewind to the first quarter and the read looks a lot more sound. Michael Carter opened the scoring for Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray added another before the quarter was out, and by the ten-minute mark of the second quarter Bam Knight had it 20-3. At the half it was 21-6. That's the sort of margin the ratings pointed to, Arizona Cardinals holding a 48 to 22 edge at quarterback and their backfield doing exactly what a form line of three wins from five suggested it would.

Then the third quarter passed with nothing on the board, and the fourth belonged entirely to Tennessee Titans. Tony Pollard got them within nine, Tyler Lockett's score with 4:53 left made it 21-18, and Arizona Cardinals never found another point to answer with. A team that had lost its last five straight, conceding almost 29 a game in that stretch, put together the only scoring of the second half when it mattered most.

The stat sheet backs up how odd that finish was. Arizona Cardinals outgained Tennessee Titans 388 yards to 343 and led first downs 30 to 23 the other way, which is to say Tennessee Titans actually won that battle. Both sides turned it over twice, but Tennessee Titans's pass rush got home three times to Arizona Cardinals's two, and their offensive EPA of minus 5 against Arizona Cardinals's minus 4.8 tells you neither attack was humming, it was closer to who avoided the bigger mistake.

Individually, Arizona Cardinals had the better numbers without the better result. Kyler Murray went 23-of-31 for 220, Emari Demercado somehow turned three carries into 81 yards, and Arizona Cardinals ran for 168 in total, 43% of their output on the ground against a Tennessee Titans defence that had been leaking nearly 29 points a game coming in. Cam Ward, by contrast, threw 39 times for 265 and an interception, completing 21, and still finished on the winning side. Calvin Ridley was the difference-maker in the box score, five catches for 131 yards, and that kind of chunk-yardage receiving day is exactly what let Tennessee Titans stay live after falling behind by 17.

Tennessee Titans came in with nothing going for them on paper, no wins in five, conceding 28.6 a game, an average margin of minus 15.6. None of that showed up in the fourth quarter. Arizona Cardinals had the better forward numbers all night, more total yards, more rushing, and still leaked the last two scores of the game.

So the model's overall shape held up better than the coin-flip result suggests: an 8.6-point spread landed within a point, a 44-point total came in at 43. It just picked the wrong side of a one-score game. That's footy for you.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 14 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Tennessee Titans | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **388** | Total Yards | 343 |
| 220 | Passing Yards | **265** |
| **168** | Rushing Yards | 78 |
| 23 | First Downs | **30** |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| **-4.8** | Offensive EPA | -5 |

**Model Report Card**

Tennessee Titans defied the model's 87% prediction for Arizona Cardinals, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 8.6 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 43, within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 41.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The combined score of 43 points was 4 points below Shawn Smith's career average of 47. Tennessee Titans's victory aligns with Shawn Smith's historical trend, Tennessee Titans have a 44% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $1.24 (edge +6.5%) — model probability 87.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 9 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Arizona Cardinals here: 87% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Arizona Cardinals sit 165 ELO points clear, 1474 to 1309. Form leans Arizona Cardinals' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Tennessee Titans.

Arizona Cardinals own the matchup too, leading 6 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Arizona Cardinals by 8.6, with the two sides combining for about 44. Arizona Cardinals to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Arizona Cardinals have won 4 of the last 6 between these two, and Tennessee Titans took the most recent meeting 22-21 in 2025 Week 5.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Kyler Murray starts under centre for Arizona Cardinals, Cam Ward for Tennessee Titans, with Jonathan Gannon and Brian Callahan calling the shots.

Arizona Cardinals come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Arizona Cardinals favourites, Arizona Cardinals $1.24 and Tennessee Titans $4.30, with the spread at Arizona Cardinals -7.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Arizona Cardinals 4 · Tennessee Titans 2 |
| Last meeting | Tennessee Titans 22-21 (2025) |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 home |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-6 away |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Kyler Murray · Cam Ward |
| Head coaches | Jonathan Gannon · Brian Callahan |
| Rest | Arizona Cardinals 10d · Tennessee Titans 7d |
| Market | Arizona Cardinals $1.24 · Tennessee Titans $4.30 |
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals -7.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tennessee Titans

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Tennessee Titans | 4W–5L | 44% |

Avg total: 47.5 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Tennessee Titans hold a 6-point edge: 4W–5L (44%) vs Arizona Cardinals's 3W–5L (38%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 25.8pts | Avg Score | 13.0pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 28.6pts |
| 6.2pts | Avg Margin | -15.6pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | W18 W · W1 W · W2 W · W3 L · W4 L | 25.8 |
| Tennessee Titans | W18 L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L · W4 L | 13.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Arizona Cardinals lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W5 | Arizona Cardinals | 21 – 22 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2021 | W1 | Tennessee Titans | 13 – 38 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2017 | W14 | Arizona Cardinals | 12 – 7 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2013 | W15 | Tennessee Titans | 34 – 37 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2009 | W12 | Tennessee Titans | 20 – 17 | Arizona Cardinals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at State Farm Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/11g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/14g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/17g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/22g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bam Knight | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/14g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/28g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kyler Murray | QB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 17/45g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 21% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Simi Fehoko | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Tip Reiman | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Travis Vokolek | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Zay Jones | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 25% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| – | Calvin Ridley | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | no games | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/18g | 9/8g | 14% | — | 🏉 56' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tennessee Titans** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Elic Ayomanor 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 4 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- ⚡ Calvin Ridley — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 1 TD across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Lockett

**Arizona Cardinals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Marvin Harrison Jr. 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyler Murray — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 21% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Cardinals: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Carter, Z.Knight

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Arizona Cardinals 1474 · Tennessee Titans 1309 · ELO difference: 165 in favour of Arizona Cardinals

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Arizona Cardinals | Tennessee Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 48 | 22 | Arizona Cardinals +26 |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 48 | Arizona Cardinals +9 |
| Backfield | 46 | 47 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 47 | Arizona Cardinals +9 |
| Secondary | 57 | 53 | Even |
| Special Teams | 69 | 70 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Arizona Cardinals |

**Model Confidence: 87%** — Arizona Cardinals predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-05 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)