# Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Philadelphia Eagles — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 – 31 Philadelphia Eagles

_Philadelphia Eagles hold off a fast-finishing Tampa Bay Buccaneers._

Half time: 6 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 47% / Philadelphia Eagles 53% · Raymond James Stadium · Mon, 29 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Emeka Egbuka (35' Tipped ⚡), Bucky Irving (43' Tipped ⚡) · Philadelphia Eagles: Sydney Brown (3'), Dallas Goedert (8'), Dallas Goedert (24'), Saquon Barkley (42' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 53% | Won |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.1 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25–31 Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 4 at Raymond James Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Final score: Philadelphia Eagles 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25. Look at the yardage sheet though and that scoreline starts to look generous to the Bucs. Tampa Bay put up 393 total yards to Philadelphia's 218, nearly double, and still lost by six.

The gap is explained by two numbers that matter more than yardage ever will. Turnovers: two for Tampa Bay, none for Philadelphia. And offensive EPA: Philadelphia at negative 4.3, Tampa Bay at negative 9.9, a 5.7-point efficiency edge for the Eagles snap for snap. You can move the ball all day, but if you're handing possessions back and getting less out of the ones you keep, the ledger still reads red.

The scoring arc backs that up. Philadelphia had it 14-3 after the first quarter and had stretched it to 24-6 by half-time, Goedert getting his first at 7:12 left in the opening term and his second at 6:14 left in the second. Tampa Bay's response didn't arrive until the third, Egbuka getting them on the board proper at the 10:04 mark to make it 12-24, before Barkley answered straight back at 3:57 to push Philadelphia out to 30-13. Irving's touchdown at 2:24 left it 31-19 into the fourth, and Tampa Bay chipped away to 25 by the finish, but the deficit built in that first half was always going to be the one that counted.

Baker Mayfield threw for 289 and two touchdowns on 22 of 40, but the one interception fed straight into the turnover column that decided things. Jalen Hurts needed far less volume,

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 25 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 31 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **393** | Total Yards | 218 |
| **289** | Passing Yards | 130 |
| **104** | Rushing Yards | 88 |
| 19 | First Downs | **25** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| -9.9 | Offensive EPA | **-4.3** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Philadelphia Eagles to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 0.1 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 52 was close to the actual 56, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 11 points above Alan Eck's career average of 45. Despite Alan Eck's 69% career home-team win rate, the away side Philadelphia Eagles prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.54 (edge -11.6%) — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 0 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles. The model can't split them, landing on Philadelphia Eagles at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 139 ELO points clear, 1702 to 1563. Form leans Philadelphia Eagles' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Philadelphia Eagles own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Philadelphia Eagles took the most recent meeting 31-25 in 2025 Week 4.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 away, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Baker Mayfield starts under centre for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia Eagles, with Todd Bowles and Nick Sirianni calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Tampa Bay Buccaneers $2.54 and Philadelphia Eagles $1.54, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 · Philadelphia Eagles 5 |
| Last meeting | Philadelphia Eagles 31-25 (2025) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-4 home |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 away |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Baker Mayfield · Jalen Hurts |
| Head coaches | Todd Bowles · Nick Sirianni |
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers $2.54 · Philadelphia Eagles $1.54 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2W–1L | 67% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2W–1L | 67% |

Avg total: 44.6 pts · Home win %: 69% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alan Eck, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2W–1L (67%) and Philadelphia Eagles 2W–1L (67%). Home teams win 69% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Tampa Bay Buccaneers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 23.8pts | Avg Score | 34.4pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| 2.2pts | Avg Margin | 12.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W18 W · WC L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W | 23.8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | CONF W · SB W · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W | 34.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 25 – 31 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2024 | W4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 33 – 16 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2023 | WC | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 – 9 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2023 | W3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11 – 25 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2021 | WC | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 – 15 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Raymond James Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| – | Bucky Irving | RB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/11g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 12/28g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/21g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/25g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 2/5g | 21/55g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devin Culp | TE | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Payne Durham | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 4 in 3g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·1·3·1·2·1·1) | 4/5g | 2/4g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (0·2·0·0·2·3·0·1·1·0) | 3/4g | 0/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.83 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 28% | — | 🏉 8' 24' |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | AJ Dillon | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Grant Calcaterra | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Kylen Granson | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 53% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Jalen Hurts 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (8 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · no TD
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Eagles: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: S.Brown, D.Goedert

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Bucky Irving 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Chris Godwin Jr. 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka — 3 TDs in last 3 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1563 · Philadelphia Eagles 1702 · ELO difference: 139 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Philadelphia Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 71 | 74 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 58 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 |
| Backfield | 51 | 52 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 55 | Philadelphia Eagles +5 |
| Secondary | 56 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 66 | 69 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Philadelphia Eagles favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-tampa-bay-buccaneers-v-philadelphia-eagles
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-09-28 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)