# San Francisco 49ers v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: San Francisco 49ers 21 – 26 Jacksonville Jaguars

_Jacksonville Jaguars survive a scare against San Francisco 49ers._

Half time: 6 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: San Francisco 49ers 26% / Jacksonville Jaguars 74% · Levi's Stadium · Mon, 29 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey (37' Tipped ⚡), Jake Tonges (53') · Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne (16' Tipped ⚡), Hunter Long (25'), Parker Washington (43')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 74% | Won |
| San Francisco 49ers | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.1 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Sept 2025, 06:05 am_

San Francisco 49ers 21–26 Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 4 at Levi's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jacksonville led 17-6 at half-time, and it had got there efficiently: two touchdowns inside five minutes of the second quarter, Travis Etienne first, then Hunter Long. San Francisco's opening quarter had produced nothing but a field goal. The second half was supposed to be the correction. It wasn't enough of one.

Christian McCaffrey got the 49ers moving again 8:39 into the third, a touchdown that made it 17-12. Jacksonville had an answer ready. Parker Washington scored with 2:40 left in the quarter to push it back out, and the Jaguars led 26-14 heading into the fourth. Jake Tonges pulled San Francisco within six with 7:49 to go, but that was as close as it got. Final score: Jacksonville 26, San Francisco 21.

The stat sheet reads like a team that should have won. San Francisco outgained Jacksonville 392 yards to 325, threw for almost double, 309 to 174, and picked up 37 first downs to 24. None of it mattered much next to the column that actually decides these things. San Francisco turned the ball over four times. Jacksonville turned it over zero. Offensive EPA had Jacksonville at 3.1 against San Francisco's 0.7, which is really just the numbers agreeing with the scoreboard: the Jaguars did far more with far less, and the Niners did far less with far more.

Brock Purdy threw for 309 yards and two touchdowns on 22 of 38 passing, but the two interceptions cancelled out most of the good work. Trevor Lawrence didn't need the volume. He went 21 of 31 for 174 yards and a touchdown, clean and unhurried, content to lean on his run game. That run game did the heavy lifting: Jacksonville had 151 rushing yards to San Francisco's 83, and Etienne was the reason, 124 yards on 19 carries and a touchdown of his own, the leading rusher on either side. McCaffrey was San Francisco's best target regardless, six catches for 92 yards and a score, but one strong performance in a losing effort with four turnovers around him.

None of this was supposed to be a shock. Jacksonville came in stronger at quarterback on paper only in the sense that the pre-game ratings actually favoured San Francisco there, 70 to 38, but everywhere else the Jaguars had the edge: backfield 57 to 55, pass rush 61 to 51, secondary 66 to 47, special teams 64 to 59. Add in the form both sides were carrying, three wins apiece in their last five, but Jacksonville averaging 4.6 points of margin over that stretch against San Francisco's minus 3.8, and the pieces were there for exactly this kind of result.

Alphr's model had Jacksonville by 2.1 points and a combined total of 51, giving the Jaguars a 74% chance of the win. The actual margin was 5, the actual total 47. Not a bullseye, but close enough to count as vindication: the model saw a Jacksonville team built to win the turnover battle and the

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 21 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| **392** | Total Yards | 325 |
| **309** | Passing Yards | 174 |
| 83 | Rushing Yards | **151** |
| **37** | First Downs | 24 |
| 4 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **1** |
| 0.7 | Offensive EPA | **3.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Jacksonville Jaguars to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Jacksonville Jaguars by 2.1 vs the actual margin of 5 points. Total score prediction of 51 was close to the actual 47, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Jacksonville Jaguars bucked the trend, San Francisco 49ers historically win 46% of games under Clete Blakeman, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $2.50 (edge +34.1%) — model probability 74.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Jacksonville Jaguars here: 74% to see off San Francisco 49ers. The ratings say otherwise: San Francisco 49ers sit 73 ELO points clear, 1521 to 1448, so the model is backing Jacksonville Jaguars against the ratings gap.

Jacksonville Jaguars own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Pass Rush, Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Jacksonville Jaguars by 2.1, with the two sides combining for about 51. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Jacksonville Jaguars to win, not to win big.

San Francisco 49ers have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 26-21 in 2025 Week 4.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Brock Purdy starts under centre for San Francisco 49ers, Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville Jaguars, with Kyle Shanahan and Liam Coen calling the shots.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, San Francisco 49ers $1.56 and Jacksonville Jaguars $2.50, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -3.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | San Francisco 49ers 5 · Jacksonville Jaguars 3 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 26-21 (2025) |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 home |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 6-2 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | Kyle Shanahan · Liam Coen |
| Market | San Francisco 49ers $1.56 · Jacksonville Jaguars $2.50 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours San Francisco 49ers

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 6W–7L | 46% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3W–9L | 25% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Clete Blakeman officiates, San Francisco 49ers have won 6 of 13 games (46%), significantly stronger than Jacksonville Jaguars's 3 from 12 (25%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.4pts | Avg Score | 22.6pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| -3.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | W17 L · W18 L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W | 23.4 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W17 W · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W | 22.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W4 | San Francisco 49ers | 21 – 26 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2023 | W10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 – 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2021 | W11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 – 30 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2017 | W16 | San Francisco 49ers | 44 – 33 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2013 | W8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 – 42 | San Francisco 49ers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (2·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 23/22g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.61 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' |
| – | Jake Tonges | TE | 1 in 3g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/31g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 9/57g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Willis | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/25g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/29g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 16' |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Hunter Long | TE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Bhayshul Tuten — 2 TDs in last 3 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: H.Long, P.Washington

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Ricky Pearsall — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Tonges

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — San Francisco 49ers 1521 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1448 · ELO difference: 73 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | San Francisco 49ers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 70 | 38 | San Francisco 49ers +32 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 51 | Even |
| Backfield | 55 | 57 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10 |
| Secondary | 47 | 66 | Jacksonville Jaguars +19 |
| Special Teams | 59 | 64 | Jacksonville Jaguars +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-28 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)