# Pittsburgh Steelers v Minnesota Vikings — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – 21 Minnesota Vikings

_Pittsburgh Steelers forge past a gallant Minnesota Vikings._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 13% / Minnesota Vikings 87% · Acrisure Stadium · Sun, 28 Sept, 11:30 pm AEST

**Touchdowns** — Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Gainwell (15'), DK Metcalf (18' Tipped ⚡), Kenny Gainwell (43') · Minnesota Vikings: Zavier Scott (53'), Jalen Nailor (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 87% | Lost |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 13% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.4 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Sept 2025, 11:30 pm_

Pittsburgh Steelers 24–21 Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 4 at Acrisure Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Zero turnovers. That's the number that beat 420 yards, and it's why Pittsburgh Steelers walked out of Acrisure Stadium 24-21 winners over Minnesota Vikings despite getting outgained by the best part of 90 yards.

Minnesota Vikings moved the ball all night. Carson Wentz threw for 350, went 30-of-46, found the end zone twice. Problem is he also found the Pittsburgh secondary twice, and a team that turns it over 2-0 while getting sacked six times to two is a team giving away the margin before the stat sheet gets read properly. Pittsburgh's pass rush did its job all night, and the offensive EPA line, 8.7 to 3.1, tells you who was actually doing something useful with the ball when they had it.

The scoreboard built in stages. Kenny Gainwell opened the scoring with 0:58 left in the first quarter, and Pittsburgh closed the frame up 7-3. DK Metcalf's touchdown with 12:28 left in the second stretched it to 13-3, and Pittsburgh took a 14-6 lead into the half. Gainwell's second, with 2:26 left in the third, made it 20-6, and by the end of that quarter Pittsburgh led 21-6. That's the shape of the whole night right there: Pittsburgh doing the scoring early and often, Minnesota Vikings doing the yardage.

Minnesota Vikings didn't fold, to their credit. Zavier Scott got them to 24-12 with 7:56 left in the fourth, Jalen Nailor pulled it back to 24-21 with 2:13 to go, and suddenly a game that looked decided was live again. It just wasn't enough time, and it wasn't enough points.

Gainwell finished with 99 yards on 19 car

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 331 | Total Yards | **420** |
| 200 | Passing Yards | **350** |
| **131** | Rushing Yards | 70 |
| 23 | First Downs | **36** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **6** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **8.7** | Offensive EPA | 3.1 |

**Model Report Card**

Pittsburgh Steelers defied the model's 87% prediction for Minnesota Vikings, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.4 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 45, within 0 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 41.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Brad Allen's career average of 45. Pittsburgh Steelers bucked the trend, Minnesota Vikings historically win 67% of games under Brad Allen, but couldn't convert that edge today. Pittsburgh Steelers's home victory fits Brad Allen's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $1.68 (edge +27.5%) — model probability 87.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Minnesota Vikings here: 87% to see off Pittsburgh Steelers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Minnesota Vikings sit 47 ELO points clear, 1563 to 1516.

Minnesota Vikings own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Quarterback. The margin model has Minnesota Vikings by 3.4, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Minnesota Vikings to win, not to win big.

Pittsburgh Steelers have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and Pittsburgh Steelers took the most recent meeting 24-21 in 2025 Week 4.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Aaron Rodgers starts under centre for Pittsburgh Steelers, J.J. McCarthy for Minnesota Vikings, with Mike Tomlin and Kevin O'Connell calling the shots.

The market has Minnesota Vikings favourites, Pittsburgh Steelers $2.24 and Minnesota Vikings $1.68, with the spread at Minnesota Vikings -2.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Pittsburgh Steelers 5 · Minnesota Vikings 2 |
| Last meeting | Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 (2025) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 6-3 home |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-4 away |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Aaron Rodgers · J.J. McCarthy |
| Head coaches | Mike Tomlin · Kevin O'Connell |
| Market | Pittsburgh Steelers $2.24 · Minnesota Vikings $1.68 |
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Minnesota Vikings

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6W–4L | 60% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10W–5L | 67% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Minnesota Vikings hold a 7-point edge: 10W–5L (67%) vs Pittsburgh Steelers's 6W–4L (60%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.6pts | Avg Score | 19.8pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| -4.2pts | Avg Margin | -3.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W18 L · WC L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W | 20.6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | W18 L · WC L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W | 19.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Pittsburgh Steelers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 – 21 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2021 | W14 | Minnesota Vikings | 36 – 28 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2017 | W2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 – 9 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2013 | W4 | Minnesota Vikings | 34 – 27 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2009 | W7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 27 – 17 | Minnesota Vikings |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Acrisure Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/18g | 25% | — | — |
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 4/4g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.30 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 15' 43' |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/22g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Washington | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/12g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Scott Miller | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Trey Sermon | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.92 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·2·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $10.50 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Carson Wentz | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | no games | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·3·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zavier Scott | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 53' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Minnesota Vikings** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jordan Addison 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Adam Thielen — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Jordan Mason — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: Z.Scott, J.Nailor

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ DK Metcalf 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · new club · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Jonnu Smith 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Gainwell

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Pittsburgh Steelers 1516 · Minnesota Vikings 1563 · ELO difference: 47 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Pittsburgh Steelers | Minnesota Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 49 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 55 | 51 | Even |
| Backfield | 41 | 53 | Minnesota Vikings +12 |
| Pass Rush | 65 | 54 | Pittsburgh Steelers +11 |
| Secondary | 55 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 58 | 63 | Minnesota Vikings +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 87%** — Minnesota Vikings predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-28 13:30 UTC (latest tip update)