# New York Giants v Los Angeles Chargers — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Giants 21 – 18 Los Angeles Chargers

_New York Giants tower over Los Angeles Chargers in a tight one._

Half time: 13 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Giants 9% / Los Angeles Chargers 91% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 29 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — New York Giants: Jaxson Dart (6'), Theo Johnson (43') · Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston (30' Tipped ⚡), Omarion Hampton (44' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 91% | Lost |
| New York Giants | 9% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 14.6 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Giants vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

New York Giants 21–18 Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 4 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two turnovers. Zero from the other side. That's the number that separated the Giants from the Chargers at MetLife Stadium, where New York held on 21-18 in a game Los Angeles arguably should have won everywhere except the scoreboard.

The Chargers had the yards, 355 to 280, and the first downs were basically even at 22 to 23. They just kept handing the ball back. Jaxson Dart got the Giants moving early, a touchdown with 9:25 left in the first that made it 6-0 and 7-0 by quarter's end. Los Angeles clawed back before the half through Quentin Johnston, cutting it to 13-10 at the break. Then in the third, Theo Johnson put the Giants up 19-10, Omarion Hampton answered straight away to make it 21-16, and that's where the scoring stopped. A five-point cushion held for the rest of the night.

The stat that ties it all together is the sack count. Los Angeles got to Dart six times, New York only got to Justin Herbert twice, and by total yardage the Chargers were the better team. But Herbert threw two interceptions, and against a Giants secondary rated 62 to the Chargers' 57 coming in, that gap showed up when it mattered.

Herbert finished 23 of 41 for 203 yards, a touchdown and the two picks. Dart was tidier without being spectacular, 13 of 20 for 111 yards and the one score, and let his ground game do the heavy lifting. New York ran for 161 yards, 45 per cent of their total output, against a Chargers pass rush that had no answer for it despite winning the trenches in the passing game.

Individually the Chargers had the two best performers on the field and still lost. Hampton led all rushers with 128 yards on just 12 carries and a touchdown, a brutal per-carry number that never translated into the scoreboard advantage it should have. Johnston was the game's top target, 8 catches for 98 yards and a score. Good numbers, wasted by the two turnovers his quarterback coughed up.

Form-wise this was meant to be a mismatch. The Chargers came in on four wins from their last five, the Giants on one, and the ratings gap was 1577 to 1350. Alphr's model gave Los Angeles a 91 per cent chance and pencilled them in by 14.6 points. Instead the Giants won by three. The total prediction of 40 points held up fine, the actual was 39, but the margin call missed by more than 11 points. Special teams was rated a big edge for LA, 71 to 48, and the raw yardage numbers back up that the Chargers were the more talented side on paper.

None of that matters much when you give the ball away twice and the other side doesn't give it away at all. The Giants took what field position and luck gave them, cashed in twice with Dart and Johnson, and made a five-point third-quarter lead stand up for the rest of the game. Wins and misses, all of it, and this week the model's the one wearing it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 7 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Giants | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 280 | Total Yards | **355** |
| 119 | Passing Yards | **203** |
| **161** | Rushing Yards | 152 |
| **23** | First Downs | 22 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **6** |
| -10.2 | Offensive EPA | **-9.5** |

**Model Report Card**

New York Giants defied the model's 91% prediction for Los Angeles Chargers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.6 but the actual margin was 3 points. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 39, within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 39 points was 6 points below Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45. New York Giants bucked the trend, Los Angeles Chargers historically win 63% of games under Shawn Hochuli, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.35 (edge +17.2%) — model probability 91.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 15 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Chargers here: 91% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Chargers sit 227 ELO points clear, 1577 to 1350. Form leans Los Angeles Chargers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Giants.

Los Angeles Chargers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 14.6, with the two sides combining for about 40. Los Angeles Chargers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 5 of the last 6 between these two, and New York Giants took the most recent meeting 21-18 in 2025 Week 4.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Jaxson Dart starts under centre for New York Giants, Justin Herbert for Los Angeles Chargers, with Brian Daboll and Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, New York Giants $3.30 and Los Angeles Chargers $1.35, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -6 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | New York Giants 1 · Los Angeles Chargers 5 |
| Last meeting | New York Giants 21-18 (2025) |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 3-5 home |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 away |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jaxson Dart · Justin Herbert |
| Head coaches | Brian Daboll · Jim Harbaugh |
| Market | New York Giants $3.30 · Los Angeles Chargers $1.35 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -6 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Chargers

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 2W–6L | 25% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5W–3L | 63% |

Avg total: 45.2 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Hochuli officiates, Los Angeles Chargers have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than New York Giants's 2 from 8 (25%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Giants | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -5.2pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | W17 W · W18 L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L | 22.0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | W18 W · WC L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W4 | New York Giants | 21 – 18 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2021 | W14 | Los Angeles Chargers | 37 – 21 | New York Giants |
| 2017 | W5 | New York Giants | 22 – 27 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2013 | W14 | Los Angeles Chargers | 37 – 14 | New York Giants |
| 2009 | W9 | New York Giants | 20 – 21 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cam Skattebo | RB | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Malik Nabers | WR | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/20g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Chris Manhertz | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Darius Slayton | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 12/48g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/15g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Russell Wilson | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 8% | — | 🏉 43' |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.90 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| – | Hassan Haskins | RB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | no games | 1/9g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tucker Fisk | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Conklin | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/27g | 12% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 1 TD in last 3 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Keenan Allen 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Chargers: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**New York Giants** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Malik Nabers 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Cam Skattebo 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 3 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Dart, T.Johnson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Giants 1350 · Los Angeles Chargers 1577 · ELO difference: 227 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Giants | Los Angeles Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 46 | 56 | Los Angeles Chargers +10 |
| Receiving Corps | 59 | 63 | Even |
| Backfield | 56 | 49 | New York Giants +7 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 48 | New York Giants +5 |
| Secondary | 62 | 57 | New York Giants +5 |
| Special Teams | 48 | 71 | Los Angeles Chargers +23 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Giants |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New York Giants |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 91%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-28 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)