# Miami Dolphins v New York Jets — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Miami Dolphins 27 – 21 New York Jets

_Miami Dolphins hold off a fast-finishing New York Jets._

Half time: 10 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Miami Dolphins 62% / New York Jets 38% · Hard Rock Stadium · Tue, 30 Sept, 09:15 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Miami Dolphins: Darren Waller (21' Tipped ⚡), Darren Waller (34' Tipped ⚡), De'Von Achane (40' Tipped ⚡) · New York Jets: Justin Fields (36'), Garrett Wilson (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 62% | Won |
| New York Jets | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.8 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2025, 09:15 am_

Miami Dolphins 27–21 New York Jets in NFL Week 4 at Hard Rock Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Miami led 10-3 at the break and spent the second half fending off a Jets side that kept finding yards but not points. Final score: Dolphins 27, Jets 21. The scoreboard undersells how lopsided the yardage was.

New York outgained Miami 423 to 300, picked up 33 first downs to 29, and out-rushed them 197 to 123. By any normal measure that's the stat line of the winning team. It wasn't, because the Jets coughed the ball up twice and Miami didn't cough it up at all. Add in two sacks for the Dolphins defence and zero the other way, and you've got the two numbers that actually decided this one.

The scoring pattern tells the story of a Miami side building a cushion just big enough to survive. Darren Waller opened it up with 9:26 left in the second quarter to make it 9-0, and by half-time Miami had stretched it to 10-3. Waller struck again early in the third to push it to 16-3, but Justin Fields answered almost immediately to get New York back within single figures at 17-9. De'Von Achane's touchdown with 5:26 left in the third made it 23-10 and, at the end of the quarter, 24-10. Garrett Wilson's score with under two minutes to go in the fourth cut it to 27-19, but Miami had already banked enough.

Through the air, Justin Fields actually outdid Tua Tagovailoa: 20 of 27 for 226 yards against Tua's 17 of 25 for 177. Tua threw two touchdowns to Fields' one, and that gap mattered more than the yardage gap. Achane led every rusher on the field with 99 yards on 20 carries and a score, doing the bulk of Miami's ground work in a game where the Jets actually out-rushed them overall. Wilson was the most productive receiver on the park, six catches for 82 yards and a touchdown, but one huge day from him wasn't enough to offset the giveaways.

The pre-match positional read had Miami's backfield (59 to 48) and secondary (58 to 47) as clear advantages, and both showed up when it counted, Achane doing damage on the ground and the defence forcing two turnovers plus getting home for two sacks. New York's edges, at quarterback (49 to 41) and special teams (57 to 52), were real but couldn't outweigh the discipline gap. Neither side came in with form to boast about, Miami 1-4 in their last five, Jets 1-4 as well, both sides averaging losing margins around the seven-point mark. This one snapped that trend for Miami, at least for a week.

Alphr's model had Miami favoured by 2.8 points and gave them a 62% chance to win, with a combined total of 42. The actual margin came in at 6, the total at 48. Not a bad week for the numbers: right side, right shape, just a touch more scoring than advertised. Wins and misses, all of it, but this one lands closer to the mark than most.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 3 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 27 |
| New York Jets | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 21 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 300 | Total Yards | **423** |
| 177 | Passing Yards | **226** |
| 123 | Rushing Yards | **197** |
| 29 | First Downs | **33** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| 7.3 | Offensive EPA | **9.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Miami Dolphins to win at 62% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Miami Dolphins by 2.8 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46. Miami Dolphins bucked the trend, New York Jets historically win 50% of games under Craig Wrolstad, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Miami Dolphins to win @ $1.68 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 62.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 3 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Miami Dolphins are the call at 62%, but New York Jets stay live at 38%.

Miami Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Miami Dolphins by 2.8, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Miami Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Miami Dolphins have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and Miami Dolphins took the most recent meeting 34-10 in 2025 Week 14.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 5-4 at home, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Tua Tagovailoa starts under centre for Miami Dolphins, Justin Fields for New York Jets, with Mike McDaniel and Aaron Glenn calling the shots.

Miami Dolphins come in fresher, 11 days between games against 8.

The market has Miami Dolphins favourites, Miami Dolphins $1.68 and New York Jets $2.24, with the spread at Miami Dolphins -2.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Miami Dolphins 10 · New York Jets 2 |
| Last meeting | Miami Dolphins 34-10 (2025) |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 5-4 home |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tua Tagovailoa · Justin Fields |
| Head coaches | Mike McDaniel · Aaron Glenn |
| Rest | Miami Dolphins 11d · New York Jets 8d |
| Market | Miami Dolphins $1.68 · New York Jets $2.24 |
| Spread | Miami Dolphins -2.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New York Jets

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 3W–10L | 23% |
| New York Jets | 7W–7L | 50% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Craig Wrolstad officiates, New York Jets have won 7 of 14 games (50%), significantly stronger than Miami Dolphins's 3 from 13 (23%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 23.0pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 30.6pts |
| -7.2pts | Avg Margin | -7.6pts |
| 11.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | W17 W · W18 L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L | 19.2 |
| New York Jets | W17 L · W18 W · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L | 23.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Miami Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | New York Jets | 10 – 34 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2025 | W4 | Miami Dolphins | 27 – 21 | New York Jets |
| 2024 | W18 | New York Jets | 32 – 20 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2024 | W14 | Miami Dolphins | 32 – 26 | New York Jets |
| 2023 | W15 | Miami Dolphins | 30 – 0 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hard Rock Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 15/16g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.85 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 10/31g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Tyreek Hill | WR | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/8g | 13/27g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darren Waller | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.50 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 34' |
| – | Julian Hill | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Conner | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/36g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Garrett Wilson | WR | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| – | Justin Fields | QB | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Allen Lazard | WR | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Braelon Allen | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Reynolds | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mason Taylor | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Garrett Wilson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Jets: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Fields

**Miami Dolphins** (4 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Tyreek Hill 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaylen Waddle — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Darren Waller — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 26% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- Rest of the Dolphins: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Miami Dolphins 1430 · New York Jets 1416 · ELO difference: 14 in favour of Miami Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Miami Dolphins | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 41 | 49 | New York Jets +8 |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 49 | Even |
| Backfield | 59 | 48 | Miami Dolphins +11 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 47 | Even |
| Secondary | 58 | 47 | Miami Dolphins +11 |
| Special Teams | 52 | 57 | New York Jets +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New York Jets |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Miami Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Miami Dolphins predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-29 23:15 UTC (latest tip update)