# Los Angeles Rams v Indianapolis Colts — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Rams 27 – 20 Indianapolis Colts

_Los Angeles Rams hold off a fast-finishing Indianapolis Colts._

Half time: 13 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Rams 62% / Indianapolis Colts 38% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 29 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Rams: Davante Adams (30' Tipped ⚡), Puka Nacua (57' Tipped ⚡), Tutu Atwell (59') · Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren (18' Tipped ⚡), Michael Pittman (49' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 62% | Won |
| Indianapolis Colts | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Sept 2025, 06:05 am_

Los Angeles Rams 27–20 Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 4 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Los Angeles Rams 27, Indianapolis Colts 20, and for long stretches of this one it was the Colts setting the pace, not the home side.

The scoreboard had Indianapolis in front or level for most of the night. Tied 3-3 after the first quarter, then Tyler Warren's touchdown put the Colts up 9-3 midway through the second. The Rams only nosed back in front with 11 seconds left in the half, Davante Adams making it 12-10 before the conversion made it 13-10 at the break. That's a scrap, not a coronation.

Nothing changed through the third. Still 13-10 at the end of it, Rams clinging to a three-point buffer that Indianapolis erased early in the fourth. Michael Pittman's score with 11:38 left put the Colts back in front, 16-13, and for a good chunk of the final quarter this looked like a game the Rams were chasing, not leading.

Then the shift. Puka Nacua's touchdown at the 3:24 mark got LA to 19-20, still trailing by one, before Tutu Atwell's score with 1:44 on the clock finally put real distance between the sides at 26-20 and the conversion sealed it at 27. Two scores in under two minutes turned a game the Colts were controlling into one the Rams won comfortably on the board, if not in the run of play.

The stat sheet explains how LA found the answers when it mattered. 477 yards to 347, and 37 first downs to 26, is control of the football that the fourth-quarter scoreboard hadn't reflected until the final minutes. Matthew Stafford went 29-of-41 for 375 and three touchdowns, with Nacua alone accounting for 13 catches and 170 yards. Daniel Jones was solid enough for Indianapolis, 24-of-33 for 262 yards and a touchdown, but two interceptions in that column hurt, and the Colts' three turnovers to LA's one is the number that decided this as much as anything on the clock.

Indianapolis actually won the pass-rush battle, three sacks to two, and that positional edge showed up pre-match too: the Colts rated stronger at quarterback (68 to 54), miles ahead in the backfield (85 to 53) and well up on special teams (81 to 62). None of that was fiction, Kyren Williams still led all rushers with 77 yards on 13 carries for LA, but it wasn't enough to survive three turnovers against a Rams team that only gave the ball away once.

Form lines had the Colts red hot, four wins from five and averaging 32.4 points a game, against a Rams side that had dropped two of its last five. Alphr's model still leaned Rams, 62% probability, rated them 1563 to 1512, and picked them by 2.7. The final margin of seven was wider than tipped, but the shape of it, a tight, back-and-forth contest settled by a handful of possessions, was exactly the kind of game the numbers pointed to. The predicted total of 48 landed almost bang on the actual 47.

Wins and misses, all of it, but this one leaned the model's way.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 27 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| **477** | Total Yards | 347 |
| **375** | Passing Yards | 262 |
| **102** | Rushing Yards | 85 |
| **37** | First Downs | 26 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| **3** | Offensive EPA | 2.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 2.7 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 47, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Los Angeles Rams's victory aligns with Carl Cheffers's historical trend, Los Angeles Rams have a 71% win rate under this referee. Los Angeles Rams's home victory fits Carl Cheffers's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.54 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 62.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 3 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Los Angeles Rams are the call at 62%, but Indianapolis Colts stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 51 ELO points clear, 1563 to 1512. Form leans Indianapolis Colts' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Los Angeles Rams.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Los Angeles Rams, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Los Angeles Rams have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 27-20 in 2025 Week 4.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-1 at home, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Matthew Stafford starts under centre for Los Angeles Rams, Daniel Jones for Indianapolis Colts, with Sean McVay and Shane Steichen calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Los Angeles Rams $1.54 and Indianapolis Colts $2.54, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -3.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Los Angeles Rams 6 · Indianapolis Colts 2 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 27-20 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-1 home |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 2-6 away |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Matthew Stafford · Daniel Jones |
| Head coaches | Sean McVay · Shane Steichen |
| Market | Los Angeles Rams $1.54 · Indianapolis Colts $2.54 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Rams

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 5W–2L | 71% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9W–11L | 45% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Carl Cheffers officiates, Los Angeles Rams have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Indianapolis Colts's 9 from 20 (45%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Los Angeles Rams).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.4pts | Avg Score | 32.4pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.8pts |
| 4.8pts | Avg Margin | 7.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | WC W · DIV L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 L | 24.4 |
| Indianapolis Colts | W17 L · W18 W · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W | 32.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W4 | Los Angeles Rams | 27 – 20 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2023 | W4 | Indianapolis Colts | 23 – 29 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2021 | W2 | Indianapolis Colts | 24 – 27 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2017 | W1 | Los Angeles Rams | 46 – 9 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2013 | W10 | Indianapolis Colts | 8 – 38 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 5/5g | 1/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/1g | 18/20g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.56 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 6/14g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/12g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/33g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tutu Atwell | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/24g | 10% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/37g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 4 in 3g | 11/10g (0·0·1·0·3·2·1·0·1·3) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.53 AI 52% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Goodson | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Indianapolis Colts** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 1 pass) · model 52% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Pittman — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Tyler Warren — 0 TDs in last 3 · model 28% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Colts: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 46% · new club · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Rams: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Atwell

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Rams 1563 · Indianapolis Colts 1512 · ELO difference: 51 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Rams | Indianapolis Colts | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 54 | 68 | Indianapolis Colts +14 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 57 | Even |
| Backfield | 53 | 85 | Indianapolis Colts +32 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 49 | Los Angeles Rams +10 |
| Secondary | 56 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 62 | 81 | Indianapolis Colts +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-28 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)