# Las Vegas Raiders v Chicago Bears — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Las Vegas Raiders 24 – 25 Chicago Bears

_Chicago Bears hit back to overpower Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 14 – 9 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 57% / Chicago Bears 43% · Allegiant Stadium · Mon, 29 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty (15' Tipped ⚡), Ashton Jeanty (26' Tipped ⚡), Ashton Jeanty (40' Tipped ⚡) · Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze (34' Tipped ⚡), D'Andre Swift (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 57% | Lost |
| Chicago Bears | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.7 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Sept 2025, 06:25 am_

Las Vegas Raiders 24–25 Chicago Bears in NFL Week 4 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Chicago Bears were the model's pick, expected to win by 1.7 points on a combined total of 50. Final score: Bears 25, Raiders 24. Total came in at 49. Rarely does a pre-match number land that close and still leave a game feeling like it could have gone either way until the last minute and a half.

Ashton Jeanty made sure of that. Three touchdowns, 138 yards on 21 carries, and he had Las Vegas in front for most of the night. He opened the scoring late in the first quarter, struck again with 4:15 left in the second to make it 13-6, and then again with 5:29 left in the third to push the lead to 20-16. Every time Chicago found an answer, Jeanty found another one first. The Raiders led at the half 14-9 and were still up 21-16 after three quarters.

Then Chicago's day arrived, and it arrived through the air. D'Andre Swift scored with 1:39 left in the fourth to make it 25-24, and that's how it finished. Rome Odunze had already got the Bears on the board in the third with a touchdown as part of a night where he was the game's clear top target: 4 catches, 69 yards, one score.

The stat sheet tells you why this was closer than it should have been for Chicago. Las Vegas outgained them 357 yards to 281 and ran the ball for 240 yards, two thirds of their total offence, against a Bears backfield rated 38 to the Raiders' 32 coming in. That gap showed up exactly where you'd expect: on the ground, all night.

But none of that mattered next to four turnovers. Geno Smith went 14-of-21 for 117 yards and two touchdowns, respectable enough on the surface, except for the three interceptions sitting next to it. Caleb Williams, by contrast, threw for 212 yards on 22-of-37 with one touchdown and just the one pick. Chicago's passing attack, rated only marginally ahead of Las Vegas's at 54 to 55 on paper, ended up doing almost double the work through the air and made it count when it mattered.

Sacks and first downs told a similar story of fine margins, one sack for Las Vegas to none for Chicago, 25 first downs for the Bears against 22 for the Raiders. Offensive EPA had both sides in the negative, Las Vegas at -10, Chicago at -7.7, which is a fair reflection of a game where neither offence was efficient so much as opportunistic.

Form coming in had these two teams close to identical, both 2-3 in their last five, both conceding more than they scored on average. Neither read like a team primed to win by much, and neither did. The Raiders' special teams edge, 66 to 53 pre-match, and their backfield mismatch through Jeanty very nearly carried them home.

Instead it was Chicago's ball security and a fourth-quarter strike from Swift that settled it. The model called the winner and came within a point of the margin. The Raiders will look at four turnovers and wonder how they lost a game they outgained by 76 yards.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| Chicago Bears | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| **357** | Total Yards | 281 |
| 117 | Passing Yards | **212** |
| **240** | Rushing Yards | 69 |
| 22 | First Downs | **25** |
| 4 | Turnovers | **1** |
| **1** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| -10 | Offensive EPA | **-7.7** |

**Model Report Card**

Chicago Bears defied the model's 57% prediction for Las Vegas Raiders, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Chicago Bears by 1.7 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 49, within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adrian Hill officiated this match (112 career games). The combined score of 49 points was 5 points above Adrian Hill's career average of 44. Chicago Bears's victory aligns with Adrian Hill's historical trend, Chicago Bears have a 63% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Las Vegas Raiders to win @ $1.80 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 56.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 2 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Las Vegas Raiders are the call at 57%, but Chicago Bears stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: Chicago Bears sit 32 ELO points clear, 1428 to 1396, so the model is backing Las Vegas Raiders against the ratings gap.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Chicago Bears by 1.7, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Las Vegas Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Chicago Bears have won 6 of the last 9 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 25-24 in 2025 Week 4.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Geno Smith starts under centre for Las Vegas Raiders, Caleb Williams for Chicago Bears, with Pete Carroll and Ben Johnson calling the shots.

The market has Las Vegas Raiders favourites, Las Vegas Raiders $1.80 and Chicago Bears $2.05, with the spread at Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Las Vegas Raiders 3 · Chicago Bears 6 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 25-24 (2025) |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-4 away |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Geno Smith · Caleb Williams |
| Head coaches | Pete Carroll · Ben Johnson |
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders $1.80 · Chicago Bears $2.05 |
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Adrian Hill |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Chicago Bears

**Adrian Hill** — 112 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Adrian Hill | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0W–2L | 0% |
| Chicago Bears | 5W–3L | 63% |

Avg total: 44.5 pts · Home win %: 48% · Home bias: Neutral

When Adrian Hill officiates, Chicago Bears have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than Las Vegas Raiders's 0 from 2 (0%). Small sample (2 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 20.6pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.2pts |
| -4.0pts | Avg Margin | -3.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | W17 W · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 L | 19.6 |
| Chicago Bears | W17 L · W18 W · W1 L · W2 L · W3 W | 20.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Chicago Bears lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W4 | Las Vegas Raiders | 24 – 25 | Chicago Bears |
| 2023 | W7 | Chicago Bears | 30 – 12 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2021 | W5 | Las Vegas Raiders | 9 – 20 | Chicago Bears |
| 2019 | W5 | Las Vegas Raiders | 24 – 21 | Chicago Bears |
| 2015 | W4 | Chicago Bears | 22 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·3) | 0/1g | 4/17g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.71 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 15' 26' 40' |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 10/18g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Justin Shorter | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | no games | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jahdae Walker | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Roschon Johnson | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Rome Odunze — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Bears: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Las Vegas Raiders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 1 TD in last 3 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q1, Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ Brock Bowers — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Chicago Bears hold the ELO advantage (1428 vs 1396), but the market favours Las Vegas Raiders (@1.80). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Las Vegas Raiders 1396 · Chicago Bears 1428 · ELO difference: 32 in favour of Chicago Bears

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Las Vegas Raiders | Chicago Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 55 | 54 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 52 | Las Vegas Raiders +6 |
| Backfield | 32 | 38 | Chicago Bears +6 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 51 | Las Vegas Raiders +5 |
| Secondary | 56 | 57 | Even |
| Special Teams | 66 | 53 | Las Vegas Raiders +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Las Vegas Raiders predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-las-vegas-raiders-v-chicago-bears
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-09-28 20:25 UTC (latest tip update)