# Kansas City Chiefs v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Kansas City Chiefs 37 – 20 Baltimore Ravens

_Kansas City Chiefs march past Baltimore Ravens._

Half time: 20 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 38% / Baltimore Ravens 62% · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Mon, 29 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Kansas City Chiefs: JuJu Smith-Schuster (26'), Isiah Pacheco (29'), Tyquan Thornton (34'), Marquise Brown (47') · Baltimore Ravens: Justice Hill (6'), Justice Hill (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 62% | Lost |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Sept 2025, 06:25 am_

Kansas City Chiefs 37–20 Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 4 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Baltimore Ravens spent the afternoon trying to run the clock down, Kansas City Chiefs spent it trying to put the ball in the end zone as often as possible. One team chased control, the other chased points. The scoreboard settled the argument in a hurry: Chiefs 37, Ravens 20, a 17-point gap that says plenty about which approach won out.

The raw yardage was close, 388 for Kansas City to 365 for Baltimore, and on paper that reads like a tight one. It wasn't. The Ravens leaned on the ground game to the tune of 166 rushing yards, 43 per cent of their total output, patient and methodical, built for long drives and short scoreboards. The Chiefs went the other way entirely, 270 yards through the air off Patrick Mahomes' arm, four touchdown throws, and an offense that scored whenever it got the ball rather than grinding for it.

That contrast in style is exactly what the pre-match ratings pointed to. Baltimore came in rated stronger at quarterback, 62 to 45, stronger in the backfield, 60 to 45, stronger in the receiving corps and on special teams too. On raw positional talent this was meant to be a Ravens night, and Alphr's model had them favoured by 1.3 points with a 62 per cent win probability. The Chiefs' one clear statistical edge going in was pass rush, 56 to 46, and it mattered far more than the ledger suggested it would.

The scoring sequence tells the real story. Justice Hill opened it for Baltimore in the first quarter, and the Ravens actually led 7-3 at the end of that period. From there the Chiefs simply took over: JuJu Smith-Schuster and Isiah Pacheco both scored in the final five minutes of the second quarter to make it 20-10 at the break, and Kansas City never looked back. Tyquan Thornton and Marquise Brown added touchdowns in the third and fourth to push it out to 36-13 before Hill's second score, with 2:08 left, did nothing but tidy up the final margin.

The turnover column explains a lot of that swing. Baltimore coughed the ball up twice, Kansas City not once, and against a Chiefs offense running at plus-15.7 EPA against Baltimore's minus-3.3, those extra possessions were costly. Efficiency, not just yardage, decided this one, and the gap there was nearly 19 points.

Individually, Mahomes was close to ch​ore-perfect, 25 of 37 for 270 and four touchdowns. Lamar Jackson was accurate in the smaller doses he got, 14 of 20 for 147 and a touchdown, but the interception hurt and he never had enough opportunities to match Kansas City's tempo. Justice Hill was the game's leading rusher with 76 yards, doing more with less than anyone else on the field, and Xavier Worthy topped the receiving chart with five catches for 83 yards.

Kansas City came in on the wrong end of recent form, a 2-3 lately with an average margin of minus-2.2, against a Ravens side averaging plus-5.4. None of that showed up here. Alphr's model had this as a Baltimore win by just over a point; instead the Chiefs turned an ambition-versus-patience contest into a rout, and the model's margin call missed by 17 points. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 37 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Kansas City Chiefs | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| **388** | Total Yards | 365 |
| **270** | Passing Yards | 199 |
| 118 | Rushing Yards | **166** |
| **38** | First Downs | 27 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **15.7** | Offensive EPA | -3.3 |

**Model Report Card**

Kansas City Chiefs defied the model's 62% prediction for Baltimore Ravens, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.3 but the actual margin was 17 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 57 points was 11 points above Clay Martin's career average of 46. Kansas City Chiefs's victory aligns with Clay Martin's historical trend, Kansas City Chiefs have a 100% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.68 (edge +2.0%) — model probability 61.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 1 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Baltimore Ravens are the call at 62%, but Kansas City Chiefs stay live at 38%.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Baltimore Ravens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Kansas City Chiefs have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Kansas City Chiefs took the most recent meeting 37-20 in 2025 Week 4.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 5-4 at home, averaging 21.3 points for and 19.3 against.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Patrick Mahomes starts under centre for Kansas City Chiefs, Lamar Jackson for Baltimore Ravens, with Andy Reid and John Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Kansas City Chiefs $2.24 and Baltimore Ravens $1.68, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -2.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Kansas City Chiefs 7 · Baltimore Ravens 5 |
| Last meeting | Kansas City Chiefs 37-20 (2025) |
| Kansas City Chiefs 2025 so far | 6-11 · 5-4 home |
| Kansas City Chiefs scoring | 21.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 5-3 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Patrick Mahomes · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Andy Reid · John Harbaugh |
| Market | Kansas City Chiefs $2.24 · Baltimore Ravens $1.68 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -2.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Kansas City Chiefs

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7W–0L | 100% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2W–4L | 33% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Clay Martin officiates, Kansas City Chiefs have won 7 of 7 games (100%), significantly stronger than Baltimore Ravens's 2 from 6 (33%). Small sample (6 games for Baltimore Ravens).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Kansas City Chiefs | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 32.8pts |
| 25.0pts | Avg Conceded | 27.4pts |
| -2.2pts | Avg Margin | 5.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | CONF W · SB L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 W | 22.8 |
| Baltimore Ravens | WC W · DIV L · W1 L · W2 W · W3 L | 32.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Kansas City Chiefs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 37 – 20 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2024 | W1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 27 – 20 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2023 | CONF | Baltimore Ravens | 10 – 17 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2021 | W2 | Baltimore Ravens | 36 – 35 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2020 | W3 | Baltimore Ravens | 20 – 34 | Kansas City Chiefs |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Patrick Mahomes | QB | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 9/42g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 34% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tyquan Thornton | WR | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Kareem Hunt | RB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 6/10g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Travis Kelce | TE | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 22/40g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Brashard Smith | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gardner Minshew | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Isiah Pacheco | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 8/26g | 32% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Jalen Royals | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/19g | 10% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Marquise Brown | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Nikko Remigio | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Gray | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/32g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Robert Tonyan | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Worthy | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 2/1g | 5/10g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 3 in 3g | 9/10g (0·0·0·1·2·2·1·2·0·1) | 9/7g | 3/2g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.75 AI 58% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/4g | 3/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 2 in 2g | 3/5g (0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 1 in 3g | 8/10g (1·2·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cooper Rush | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 6' 58' |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 0 pass) · model 58% · no TD
- ⚡ Mark Andrews 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Zay Flowers — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 12 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Hill

**Kansas City Chiefs** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kareem Hunt 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Xavier Worthy 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Patrick Mahomes — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Chiefs: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Smith-Schuster, I.Pacheco, T.Thornton, M.Brown

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Kansas City Chiefs 1608 · Baltimore Ravens 1616 · ELO difference: 8 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Kansas City Chiefs | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 62 | Baltimore Ravens +17 |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 62 | Baltimore Ravens +10 |
| Backfield | 45 | 60 | Baltimore Ravens +15 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 46 | Kansas City Chiefs +10 |
| Secondary | 56 | 52 | Even |
| Special Teams | 55 | 71 | Baltimore Ravens +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-28 20:25 UTC (latest tip update)