# Houston Texans v Tennessee Titans — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Houston Texans 26 – 0 Tennessee Titans

_Houston Texans rope in Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 6 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Houston Texans 86% / Tennessee Titans 14% · NRG Stadium · Mon, 29 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Houston Texans: Woody Marks (45'), Jayden Higgins (51'), Woody Marks (56') · Tennessee Titans: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 86% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 14% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Houston Texans 26–0 Tennessee Titans in NFL Week 4 at NRG Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Houston Texans came into this one built for control, Tennessee Titans built for something faster, and by full time the contrast had answered itself. Houston Texans beat Tennessee Titans 26-0 at NRG Stadium, and the story of the afternoon was patience against panic: one side happy to bank yards and wait, the other trying to force a big play that never showed up.

At half-time it was 6-0, a scoreline that undersold what was already happening. Houston were moving the ball freely but not finishing drives, three quarters of accumulation with almost nothing to show for it on the board. The third quarter passed with the score still frozen at 6-0. Then the fourth arrived and everything that had been building let go at once. Woody Marks scored with 15:00 left, Jayden Higgins added another at 9:31, and Marks finished it off at 4:57. Twenty points in one quarter, after 45 minutes had produced just six.

The underlying numbers explain why that burst was coming even when the scoreboard said otherwise. Houston finished with 362 total yards to 190, a 233-108 edge through the air and 129-82 on the ground. First downs went 28-13. Offensive EPA was the clearest signal of all: Houston at +9.9, Tennessee at -15.4, a gap that had nothing to do with the final score and everything to do with which team was actually functioning on offence.

C.J. Stroud went 22-of-28 for 233 yards and both the Marks and Higgins touchdowns, calm and unhurried all afternoon. Cam Ward, by contrast, managed just 10-of-26 for 108 yards and threw the game's only interception, Tennessee's lone turnover against Houston's zero. Marks did the heavy lifting on the ground too, 69 yards on 17 carries to go with his two scores, and Nico Collins was the clear top target with 4 catches for 79 yards. Sacks were even at two apiece, so it wasn't pressure that decided this game. It was what each side did once it actually had the ball in hand.

The form lines going in told part of this story already. Tennessee arrived having lost their last five, averaging 27.4 points conceded across that stretch, while Houston had at least managed a win in their five, albeit with a similarly middling scoring average of 16.8. The positional ratings had Houston ahead almost everywhere that mattered, quarterback 47 to 24, pass rush 56 to 45, secondary 63 to 56, with special teams the one category Tennessee actually led.

Alphr's model had Houston favoured by 5.8 points and pegged the combined total at 44, giving the Texans an 86 per cent chance to win outright. The win call landed. The margin didn't, not even close. Houston's 26-0 result blew past the projected margin by 20 points, while the actual total of 26 came in 18 points under what the model expected, proof that a shutout can still undercut a scoring forecast even as it validates the favourite. Sometimes the number that matters isn't the total, it's which team put up all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 3 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 26 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Houston Texans | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **362** | Total Yards | 190 |
| **233** | Passing Yards | 108 |
| **129** | Rushing Yards | 82 |
| **28** | First Downs | 13 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **9.9** | Offensive EPA | -15.4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Houston Texans to win at 86% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 26 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 44. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 20 points below Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Houston Texans bucked the trend, Tennessee Titans historically win 38% of games under Brad Rogers, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.23 (edge +4.6%) — model probability 86.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 6 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Houston Texans here: 86% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Houston Texans sit 161 ELO points clear, 1484 to 1323. Form leans Houston Texans' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Tennessee Titans.

Houston Texans own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Houston Texans by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Houston Texans to win, not to win big.

Houston Texans have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Houston Texans took the most recent meeting 16-13 in 2025 Week 11.

Houston Texans went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 23.8 points for and 17.4 against.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

C.J. Stroud starts under centre for Houston Texans, Cam Ward for Tennessee Titans, with DeMeco Ryans and Brian Callahan calling the shots.

The market has Houston Texans favourites, Houston Texans $1.23 and Tennessee Titans $4.40, with the spread at Houston Texans -7.5 and the total at 39.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Houston Texans 7 · Tennessee Titans 5 |
| Last meeting | Houston Texans 16-13 (2025) |
| Houston Texans 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 home |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.8 for · 17.4 against |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-6 away |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | C.J. Stroud · Cam Ward |
| Head coaches | DeMeco Ryans · Brian Callahan |
| Market | Houston Texans $1.23 · Tennessee Titans $4.40 |
| Spread | Houston Texans -7.5 · total 39.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tennessee Titans

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 0W–4L | 0% |
| Tennessee Titans | 3W–5L | 38% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Tennessee Titans have won 3 of 8 games (38%), significantly stronger than Houston Texans's 0 from 4 (0%). Small sample (4 games for Houston Texans).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Houston Texans | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 27.4pts |
| -0.4pts | Avg Margin | -11.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | WC W · DIV L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L | 16.8 |
| Tennessee Titans | W17 L · W18 L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L | 15.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Houston Texans lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Tennessee Titans | 13 – 16 | Houston Texans |
| 2025 | W4 | Houston Texans | 26 – 0 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2024 | W18 | Tennessee Titans | 14 – 23 | Houston Texans |
| 2024 | W12 | Houston Texans | 27 – 32 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2023 | W17 | Houston Texans | 26 – 3 | Tennessee Titans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at NRG Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Houston Texans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nico Collins | WR | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 18/29g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Nick Chubb | RB | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 2/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | C.J. Stroud | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/19g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Christian Kirk | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 5/19g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Higgins | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Jaylin Noel | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Woody Marks | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 45' 56' |
| – | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.70 AI 25% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 1/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Calvin Ridley | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tennessee Titans** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Elic Ayomanor 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 3 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- ⚡ Calvin Ridley — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

**Houston Texans** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Nico Collins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Nick Chubb 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Christian Kirk — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Texans: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: W.Marks, J.Higgins

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Houston Texans 1484 · Tennessee Titans 1323 · ELO difference: 161 in favour of Houston Texans

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Houston Texans | Tennessee Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 24 | Houston Texans +23 |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 54 | Even |
| Backfield | 35 | 32 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 45 | Houston Texans +11 |
| Secondary | 63 | 56 | Houston Texans +7 |
| Special Teams | 61 | 73 | Tennessee Titans +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Houston Texans |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Houston Texans |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Houston Texans |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 86%** — Houston Texans predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-28 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)