# Denver Broncos v Cincinnati Bengals — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 28 – 3 Cincinnati Bengals

_Denver Broncos put Cincinnati Bengals to the sword._

Half time: 21 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 90% / Cincinnati Bengals 10% · Empower Field at Mile High · Tue, 30 Sept, 10:15 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (15'), Mims (22'), Courtland Sutton (30' Tipped ⚡), RJ Harvey (55') · Cincinnati Bengals: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 90% | Won |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.7 predicted → 25 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2025, 10:15 am_

Denver Broncos 28–3 Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Week 4 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cincinnati Bengals came into Denver on a four-game winning streak in their last five, averaging 21.4 points and looking like a side that knew how to close things out. None of that showed up at Empower Field. They left with 178 total yards, 9 first downs and a goose egg in the try column, beaten 28-3 in a game that was never really a contest.

The Bengals' one genuine positive is that they got on the board first, a field goal that made it 3-0 before Denver had settled. That's about where the good news ends. Bo Nix answered with a touchdown in the final minute of the first quarter, and by the time Marvin Mims Jr. and Courtland Sutton had crossed in the second, it was 21-3 at the break. Cincinnati never scored again.

Jake Browning went 14-of-25 for 125 yards without a touchdown, and with Denver's pass rush getting home three times to Cincinnati's zero, there was rarely time to find anything down the field. The pre-match numbers had flagged Denver's edge at quarterback (60 to 41) and up front in the pass rush (61 to 53), and both showed up exactly as advertised. Cincinnati's own strength, their special teams rated 56 to Denver's 54, never got the chance to matter in a game this lopsided.

Denver's follow-up score arrived through RJ Harvey with 5:02 left in the fourth, closing it out at 28-3 and turning what was already a comfortable margin into a rout. From first quarter to final whistle, Cincinnati simply had no answer.

The gap in the box score tells the same story as the scoreline. Denver ran up 512 total yards to Cincinnati's 178, doubled them in first downs 45 to 9, and posted an offensive EPA of 17.2 against Cincinnati's minus-10.8. That's not a close game that got away from them late, that's a team getting outplayed snap for snap from the opening whistle.

Nix finished 29-of-42 for 326 yards and 2 touchdowns, with one interception the only blemish on an otherwise tidy afternoon, and Denver's only turnover of the match. J.K. Dobbins ground out 101 yards on 16 carries as Denver leaned on the run for 186 yards, more than a third of their total output. Sutton was the busiest target, 5 catches for 81 yards and a score, doing exactly what a top receiver should against a Cincinnati secondary rated only three points behind Denver's on paper but nowhere near it on the day.

Alphr's model had Denver favourites at 90 percent, with a projected margin of 13.7 points and a combined total near 48. The lean on Denver was right and then some, the actual margin nearly doubling what was forecast. The total undershot by 17 points, which tells you this wasn't a shootout so much as one team's defence doing its job while the other's offence had nowhere to go. Cincinnati's four wins in five coming in counted for nothing once Denver started pulling away in the second quarter, and they never found a way back into it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 7 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| **512** | Total Yards | 178 |
| **326** | Passing Yards | 125 |
| **186** | Rushing Yards | 53 |
| **45** | First Downs | 9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **17.2** | Offensive EPA | -10.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 90% probability. The predicted margin of 13.7 was reasonable against the actual 25-point result. The game's 31 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 48. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The combined score of 31 points was 21 points below Alex Moore's career average of 52. Denver Broncos's home victory fits Alex Moore's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.21 (edge +7.8%) — model probability 90.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 14 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 90% to see off Cincinnati Bengals. Form leans Cincinnati Bengals' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Denver Broncos.

Denver Broncos own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 13.7, with the two sides combining for about 48. Denver Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Denver Broncos have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Denver Broncos took the most recent meeting 28-3 in 2025 Week 4.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 away, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Jake Browning for Cincinnati Bengals, with Sean Payton and Zac Taylor calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Denver Broncos $1.21 and Cincinnati Bengals $4.60, with the spread at Denver Broncos -7.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Denver Broncos 8 · Cincinnati Bengals 4 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 28-3 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 away |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Jake Browning |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Zac Taylor |
| Market | Denver Broncos $1.21 · Cincinnati Bengals $4.60 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -7.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0W–0L | 0% |

Avg total: 52.0 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alex Moore, Denver Broncos 0W–0L (0%) and Cincinnati Bengals 0W–0L (0%). Games average 52.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Denver Broncos).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.6pts | Avg Score | 21.4pts |
| 19.0pts | Avg Conceded | 26.4pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | -5.0pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W18 W · WC L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 L | 22.6 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | W17 W · W18 W · W1 W · W2 W · W3 L | 21.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cincinnati Bengals lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W4 | Denver Broncos | 28 – 3 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2024 | W17 | Cincinnati Bengals | 30 – 24 | Denver Broncos |
| 2021 | W15 | Denver Broncos | 10 – 15 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2018 | W13 | Cincinnati Bengals | 10 – 24 | Denver Broncos |
| 2017 | W11 | Denver Broncos | 17 – 20 | Cincinnati Bengals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 5/5g | 2/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.70 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 15/40g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/15g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·2·2·0·0·1·0) | 2/1g | 5/17g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.40 AI 24% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 16% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Nate Adkins | TE | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/8g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 13% | — | — |

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 1 in 3g | 8/10g (2·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Browning | QB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Tinsley | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 1 in 3g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·3·0·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mike Gesicki | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tahj Brooks | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Tee Higgins — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Bengals: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Denver Broncos** (3 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Marvin Mims Jr. — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 24% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Broncos: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Nix, R.Harvey

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1537 · Cincinnati Bengals 1524 · ELO difference: 13 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Cincinnati Bengals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 60 | 41 | Denver Broncos +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 56 | Even |
| Backfield | 47 | 39 | Denver Broncos +8 |
| Pass Rush | 61 | 53 | Denver Broncos +8 |
| Secondary | 58 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 54 | 56 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 90%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-30 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)