# Dallas Cowboys v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dallas Cowboys 40 – 40 Green Bay Packers

_Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers share the spoils._

Half time: 16 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dallas Cowboys 11% / Green Bay Packers 89% · AT&T Stadium · Mon, 29 Sept, 10:20 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott (30'), George Pickens (30' Tipped ⚡), Jake Ferguson (45'), Javonte Williams (56' Tipped ⚡), George Pickens (60' Tipped ⚡) · Green Bay Packers: Romeo Doubs (5' Tipped ⚡), Romeo Doubs (20' Tipped ⚡), Josh Jacobs (38' Tipped ⚡), Josh Jacobs (49' Tipped ⚡), Romeo Doubs (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 89% | Draw |
| Dallas Cowboys | 11% | Draw |

Model call: **Draw** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 0 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Sept 2025, 10:20 am_

Dallas Cowboys 40–40 Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 4 at AT&T Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty points apiece and nobody could find a way to put the other team away in the fourth quarter, which tells you most of what you need to know about this one. Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers traded the lead four times in the last twelve minutes of regulation alone, and when the siren finally sounded on overtime, the scoreboard still read 40-40. That's not a typo, that's just how the night went.

The stretch that decided nothing, and therefore everything, started with Josh Jacobs punching in his second touchdown with 11:45 left to put Green Bay Packers up 26-23. Javonte Williams answered for Dallas Cowboys at the 4:52 mark to make it 29-27. Romeo Doubs then scored his third of the night with 1:49 remaining to shove Green Bay Packers back in front, 33-30, before George Pickens hauled in his second touchdown with under a minute to go to level things at 36-34 heading into the final push. Regulation ended 37-37. Overtime added three more each way and still nobody blinked.

Green Bay Packers did the more convincing statistical work across the board, out-gaining Dallas Cowboys 501 yards to 436 and winning first downs 43 to 42. The ground game was the difference in identity: 164 rushing yards for the Packers, better than a third of their total output, with Jacobs the workhorse at 86 yards on 22 carries to go with his two scores. That's the backfield edge (59 to 56 in Dallas's favour on paper) getting overridden by a bigger night from the better runner on the other side.

Through the air it was arm-wrestle stuff. Dak Prescott went 31-of-40 for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns, Jordan Love matched him almost throw for throw at 31-of-43 for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns of his own. George Pickens was the standout target on the day regardless of who won, 8 catches for 134 yards and both his touchdowns doing real damage against a Packers pass rush rated well above Dallas's own (63 to 50 pre-match).

The one number that should have settled this and didn't was turnovers. Green Bay Packers lost the turnover battle 1-0, the kind of margin that usually finishes a game in the winning team's favour. It didn't matter. Whatever came loose from that giveaway got matched almost immediately, possession for possession, right through to the extra period.

Alphr's model had Green Bay Packers at 89% before kick-off and expected them to win by 3.9, with a combined total of 47. The margin read was close enough, actual margin came in at zero against a predicted 3.9. The total wasn't close at all: 80 points landed, 33 higher than forecast, and the model's win probability never accounted for a draw because in this competition, it almost never happens. Recent form pointed to two sides trending in opposite directions, Green Bay Packers 2 wins from their last 5 against Dallas Cowboys' 1, and that gap showed up in the yardage and the ground game. It just never showed up on the scoreboard, because nobody could find the finishing act to match the numbers.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 0 | 16 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 40 |
| Green Bay Packers | 7 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 436 | Total Yards | **501** |
| 319 | Passing Yards | **337** |
| 117 | Rushing Yards | **164** |
| 42 | First Downs | **43** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| 24 | Offensive EPA | **26.6** |

**Model Report Card**

The match ended in a draw (40–40), a rare result the model's 89% forecast for Green Bay Packers didn't account for. The margin model was sharp, predicting Green Bay Packers by 3.9 vs the actual margin of 0 points. The game's 80 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 47. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ron Torbert officiated this match (150 career games). The combined score of 80 points was 34 points above Ron Torbert's career average of 46. Despite Ron Torbert's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Green Bay Packers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.29 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 88.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys +7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 4 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Green Bay Packers here: 89% to see off Dallas Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 156 ELO points clear, 1598 to 1442. Form leans Green Bay Packers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Dallas Cowboys.

Green Bay Packers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Green Bay Packers by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 47. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Green Bay Packers to win, not to win big.

Green Bay Packers have won 10 of the last 12 between these two.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Dak Prescott starts under centre for Dallas Cowboys, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Brian Schottenheimer and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Dallas Cowboys $3.75 and Green Bay Packers $1.29, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -7 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Dallas Cowboys 1 · Green Bay Packers 10 |
| Last meeting | Tie 40-40 |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 4-4 home |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 4-5 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Dak Prescott · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Brian Schottenheimer · Matt LaFleur |
| Market | Dallas Cowboys $3.75 · Green Bay Packers $1.29 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -7 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Ron Torbert |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Green Bay Packers

**Ron Torbert** — 150 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under Ron Torbert | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Green Bay Packers | 6W–5L | 55% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ron Torbert officiates, Green Bay Packers have won 6 of 11 games (55%), significantly stronger than Dallas Cowboys's 3 from 8 (38%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 31.2pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | W17 L · W18 L · W1 L · W2 W · W3 L | 20.0 |
| Green Bay Packers | W18 L · WC L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Green Bay Packers lead 4-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W4 | Dallas Cowboys | 40 – 40 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2023 | WC | Dallas Cowboys | 32 – 48 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2022 | W10 | Green Bay Packers | 31 – 28 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2019 | W5 | Dallas Cowboys | 24 – 34 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2017 | W5 | Dallas Cowboys | 31 – 35 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AT&T Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 60' |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/27g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Miles Sanders | RB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 2/5g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $7.25 AI 23% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $34.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 22/66g | 10% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/1g | 8/23g | 12% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/19g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/17g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 2 in 3g | 11/10g (1·3·1·1·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.51 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 49' |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 20' 59' |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Malik Heath | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Romeo Doubs — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q1, Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Tucker Kraft — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ George Pickens 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 29% · new club · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Miles Sanders 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Cowboys: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Prescott, J.Ferguson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dallas Cowboys 1442 · Green Bay Packers 1598 · ELO difference: 156 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Dallas Cowboys | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 50 | 50 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 57 | Green Bay Packers +7 |
| Backfield | 59 | 56 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 63 | Green Bay Packers +13 |
| Secondary | 51 | 52 | Even |
| Special Teams | 70 | 60 | Dallas Cowboys +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-29 00:20 UTC (latest tip update)