# Arizona Cardinals v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Week 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Arizona Cardinals 20 – 23 Seattle Seahawks

_Seattle Seahawks swoop on Arizona Cardinals in a tight one._

Half time: 3 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Arizona Cardinals 66% / Seattle Seahawks 34% · State Farm Stadium · Fri, 26 Sept, 10:15 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Arizona Cardinals: Harrison (55'), Emari Demercado (60') · Seattle Seahawks: AJ Barner (14'), Zach Charbonnet (29' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 66% | Lost |
| Seattle Seahawks | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 4, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 Sept 2025, 10:15 am_

Arizona Cardinals 20–23 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 4 at State Farm Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seattle Seahawks beat Arizona Cardinals 23-20 at State Farm Stadium. Read the final score and you'd guess a scrap decided by a kick. Read the yardage and you'd guess something else entirely: Seattle put up 397 yards to Arizona's 289, and by the time the game hit its last quarter Seattle were sitting on a 20-3 lead built off two touchdowns nobody in Arizona could answer.

That lead came early and stayed unchallenged for a long stretch. AJ Barner opened the scoring for Seattle with 1:38 left in the first, and Arizona still hadn't found the end zone by the time Zach Charbonnet made it 14-3 late in the second. Arizona went to the sheds down 14-3 and were still chasing at 6-17 through three quarters. The Cardinals didn't get a touchdown until Marvin Harrison Jr's with 5:55 left in the fourth, then Emari Demercado's with 33 seconds on the clock pulled it to 19-20. A two-point attempt or extra point later, it finished 20-23. Close on the ledger, not close on the tape.

The efficiency numbers back that up. Seattle ran +8.7 expected points clear of Arizona on offence, which is the sort of gap that usually turns into a blowout rather than a three-point squeaker. Arizona helped keep themselves in it by making Seattle work, but they also handed Seattle the turnover battle 2-0, and a defence that got beaten up front, conceding 6 sacks to 3, was never going to claw back 397 yards of Seattle's offence on pure want.

Kyler Murray threw 27 of 41 for 200 yards, two touchdowns and two picks, the kind of line where the touchdowns arrive too late to matter and the picks arrive early enough to hurt. Sam Darnold needed far less volume to do more damage: 18 of 26 for 242 yards and a touchdown. Seattle also leaned on the ground game harder than the raw split suggests, 155 rushing yards making up 39% of their output, with Kenneth Walker III the game's leading rusher on 81 yards from 19 carries. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the top target with just 4 catches for 79 yards, quality over volume.

None of this fits neatly with the pre-match numbers. Alphr's model had Arizona favoured by 5.8 points and gave them a 66% chance to win, built partly off a quarterback rating gap that had Murray at 61 against Darnold's 27. That edge never showed up where it needed to. Seattle's strengths on paper, a better pass rush at 58 to 51 and a stronger secondary at 63 to 57, were exactly the areas that decided the game: three sacks fewer allowed, two takeaways forced, none conceded.

Both sides arrived on 4 days' rest and modest form, Arizona 3-2 in their last five, Seattle 4-1. Seattle's away form held up better than the rating gap suggested it should. The margin, 3 points, wasn't far off what the model expected in size. It just had the wrong team winning by it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 20 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 289 | Total Yards | **397** |
| 200 | Passing Yards | **242** |
| 89 | Rushing Yards | **155** |
| 28 | First Downs | 28 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 3 | Sacks Made | **6** |
| -5.2 | Offensive EPA | **3.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Seattle Seahawks defied the model's 66% prediction for Arizona Cardinals, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.8 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The 43-point combined total was right in line with Alex Kemp's career average of 46. Seattle Seahawks's victory aligns with Alex Kemp's historical trend, Seattle Seahawks have a 63% win rate under this referee. Despite Alex Kemp's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Seattle Seahawks prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $2.05 (edge +17.3%) — model probability 66.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 6 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Arizona Cardinals here: 66% to see off Seattle Seahawks. The ratings say otherwise: Seattle Seahawks sit 67 ELO points clear, 1554 to 1487, so the model is backing Arizona Cardinals against the ratings gap. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Arizona Cardinals.

On paper Seattle Seahawks shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The model still sides with Arizona Cardinals, which says Quarterback carry the most weight. The margin model has Arizona Cardinals by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 53. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Arizona Cardinals to win, not to win big.

Seattle Seahawks have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 44-22 in 2025 Week 10.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 away, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Kyler Murray starts under centre for Arizona Cardinals, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Jonathan Gannon and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Arizona Cardinals $2.05 and Seattle Seahawks $1.80, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -1.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Arizona Cardinals 2 · Seattle Seahawks 10 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 44-22 (2025) |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 home |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Kyler Murray · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Jonathan Gannon · Mike Macdonald |
| Market | Arizona Cardinals $2.05 · Seattle Seahawks $1.80 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -1.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Seattle Seahawks

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 1W–7L | 13% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5W–3L | 63% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Kemp officiates, Seattle Seahawks have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than Arizona Cardinals's 1 from 8 (13%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 17.6pts | Avg Conceded | 15.0pts |
| 6.0pts | Avg Margin | 9.8pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | W17 L · W18 W · W1 W · W2 W · W3 L | 23.6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | W17 W · W18 W · W1 L · W2 W · W3 W | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | Seattle Seahawks | 44 – 22 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2025 | W4 | Arizona Cardinals | 20 – 23 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W14 | Arizona Cardinals | 18 – 30 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W12 | Seattle Seahawks | 16 – 6 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2023 | W18 | Arizona Cardinals | 20 – 21 | Seattle Seahawks |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at State Farm Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/10g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 27% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 2/16g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 4/21g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bam Knight | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/13g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/13g | 11% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 5/27g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kyler Murray | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 17/44g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $19.00 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Simi Fehoko | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Trey Benson | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Weaver | WR | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 3/5g | 2/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.05 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tory Horton | WR | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | George Holani | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 2/2g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 3/7g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bobo | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Seahawks: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Barner

**Arizona Cardinals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Marvin Harrison Jr. — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Michael Carter — 1 TD in last 3 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Cardinals: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: E.Demercado

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Arizona Cardinals 1487 · Seattle Seahawks 1554 · ELO difference: 67 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Arizona Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 61 | 27 | Arizona Cardinals +34 |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 54 | Arizona Cardinals +10 |
| Backfield | 47 | 46 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 58 | Seattle Seahawks +7 |
| Secondary | 57 | 63 | Seattle Seahawks +6 |
| Special Teams | 65 | 66 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Arizona Cardinals predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-26 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)