# Tennessee Titans v Indianapolis Colts — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tennessee Titans 20 – 41 Indianapolis Colts

_Indianapolis Colts gallop past Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 6 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tennessee Titans 31% / Indianapolis Colts 69% · Nissan Stadium · Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Tennessee Titans: Tony Pollard (40' Tipped ⚡), Elic Ayomanor (52' Tipped ⚡) · Indianapolis Colts: Moore (1'), Jonathan Taylor (14' Tipped ⚡), Michael Pittman (34' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Taylor (44' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Taylor (55' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 69% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.3 predicted → 21 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Tennessee Titans 20–41 Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 3 at Nissan Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen points up at the break and the Colts didn't so much sit on it as keep piling more on top. Tennessee trailed 20-6 at half-time and the second half only made the gap wider, Indianapolis running out 41-20 winners at Nissan Stadium in what finished as a comfortable 21-point margin.

The pattern was set early. Jonathan Taylor scored inside the first quarter to make it 6-0, then again before the quarter was out to have Indianapolis up 17-3. By half-time the Colts led 20-6 and Tennessee had shown just enough to make it look competitive on paper, without ever threatening to close the gap.

Then the third quarter turned it from a game into a rout. Michael Pittman's touchdown stretched it to 26-6, Tony Pollard hit back for Tennessee to make it 27-12, but Taylor's third touchdown of the night, with 1:36 left in the quarter, pushed Indianapolis out to 34-13. Elic Ayomanor's score early in the fourth got Tennessee within 34-19, briefly, before Taylor found the end zone a fourth time to put it well out of reach at 40-20 and, with the extra point, 41-20 final.

Taylor finished with 102 yards on 17 carries to go with his three touchdowns, the kind of backfield performance the pre-match numbers all but promised. Indianapolis went in rated 77 to Tennessee's 33 at that position, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect: 137 rushing yards to 86. Pittman added 73 yards and a score on 6 catches, the clear top target on the night.

Daniel Jones didn't need to do much heavy lifting, 18 of 25 for 228 yards and a touchdown, efficient without needing volume. Cam Ward threw more, 23 of 38 for 219 yards and a touchdown of his own, but the pick mattered. Tennessee lost the turnover battle 1-0 and paid for it, while Indianapolis's pass rush got home four times to Tennessee's zero. A quarterback under that kind of pressure with a shakier supporting cast, rated 25 to Indianapolis's 53 before kickoff, was always going to have a long night.

The efficiency numbers tell the same story from a different angle. Indianapolis ran an offensive EPA of +15.6 against Tennessee's -11.2, a 26.8-point gap in expected points that lines up neatly with the scoreboard. Total yards favoured the Colts 365 to 305, and first downs were about even, 29 to 30, which says Tennessee moved the chains fine. They just didn't finish drives the way Indianapolis did.

None of this will surprise anyone who'd looked at the form lines. Indianapolis came in 4-1 across their last five, averaging 31.8 points a game, against a Tennessee side sitting on five straight losses and 17.6 points a game. Alphr's model had Indianapolis favoured at 69% and predicted a 9.3-point margin, on a projected total of 42. The lopsided scoreline, 21 points, went well past that. The total, 61, came in 19 points over the projection. The winner was never really in doubt. The size of it was the only variable left.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 17 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 41 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 305 | Total Yards | **365** |
| 219 | Passing Yards | **228** |
| 86 | Rushing Yards | **137** |
| **30** | First Downs | 29 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -11.2 | Offensive EPA | **15.6** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Indianapolis Colts to win at 69% probability. The predicted margin of 9.3 was reasonable against the actual 21-point result. The game's 61 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 61 points was 16 points above Scott Novak's career average of 45. Indianapolis Colts bucked the trend, Tennessee Titans historically win 50% of games under Scott Novak, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.41 (edge -2.3%) — model probability 68.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 9 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Indianapolis Colts here: 69% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Indianapolis Colts sit 146 ELO points clear, 1490 to 1344. Form leans Indianapolis Colts' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Tennessee Titans.

Indianapolis Colts own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Indianapolis Colts by 9.3, with the two sides combining for about 42. Indianapolis Colts to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Indianapolis Colts have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Indianapolis Colts took the most recent meeting 38-14 in 2025 Week 8.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-8 at home, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Cam Ward starts under centre for Tennessee Titans, Daniel Jones for Indianapolis Colts, with Brian Callahan and Shane Steichen calling the shots.

The market has Indianapolis Colts favourites, Tennessee Titans $3.00 and Indianapolis Colts $1.41, with the spread at Indianapolis Colts -6 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tennessee Titans 5 · Indianapolis Colts 7 |
| Last meeting | Indianapolis Colts 38-14 (2025) |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-8 home |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 2-6 away |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Cam Ward · Daniel Jones |
| Head coaches | Brian Callahan · Shane Steichen |
| Market | Tennessee Titans $3.00 · Indianapolis Colts $1.41 |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -6 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tennessee Titans

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 3W–3L | 50% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 1W–4L | 20% |

Avg total: 45.2 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Leans away

When Scott Novak officiates, Tennessee Titans have won 3 of 6 games (50%), significantly stronger than Indianapolis Colts's 1 from 5 (20%). Small sample (5 games for Indianapolis Colts).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 31.8pts |
| 26.8pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| -9.2pts | Avg Margin | 5.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 L · W2 L | 17.6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | W16 W · W17 L · W18 W · W1 W · W2 W | 31.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Indianapolis Colts lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W8 | Indianapolis Colts | 38 – 14 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2025 | W3 | Tennessee Titans | 20 – 41 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2024 | W16 | Indianapolis Colts | 38 – 30 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2024 | W6 | Tennessee Titans | 17 – 20 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2023 | W13 | Tennessee Titans | 28 – 31 | Indianapolis Colts |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Nissan Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | Calvin Ridley | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/10g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/23g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 2/9g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·2·1·0·1) | 4/7g | 0/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.48 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.10 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 44' 55' |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 2/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Richardson | QB | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | DJ Giddens | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Goodson | RB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Indianapolis Colts** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 1 pass) · model 52% · **scored Q1, Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Tyler Warren — 0 TDs in last 2 · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Pittman — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Colts: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Moore

**Tennessee Titans** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Elic Ayomanor 🎯 — 1 TD in last 2 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Calvin Ridley 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tennessee Titans 1344 · Indianapolis Colts 1490 · ELO difference: 146 in favour of Indianapolis Colts

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tennessee Titans | Indianapolis Colts | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 25 | 53 | Indianapolis Colts +28 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 61 | Indianapolis Colts +10 |
| Backfield | 33 | 77 | Indianapolis Colts +44 |
| Pass Rush | 48 | 48 | Even |
| Secondary | 56 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 69 | 77 | Indianapolis Colts +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Indianapolis Colts predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-21 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)