# Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New York Jets — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 – 27 New York Jets

_Tampa Bay Buccaneers raid New York Jets in a tight one._

Half time: 20 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 89% / New York Jets 11% · Raymond James Stadium · Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans (19' Tipped ⚡), Jamel Dean (30') · New York Jets: Garrett Wilson (50' Tipped ⚡), Allen Lazard (57'), McDonald (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 89% | Won |
| New York Jets | 11% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.0 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29–27 New York Jets in NFL Week 3 at Raymond James Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New York Jets picked up more first downs on the night, 31 to 28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers picked up the scoreboard. That's the whole story in one line: Jets ground out yardage in bites, Bucs needed fewer chances to do more with them, and it was Tampa Bay walking away 29-27.

The half-time score tells you where the game was actually decided. Tampa Bay led 20-6 at the break, built off touchdowns from Mike Evans and J.Dean either side of the two-minute warning in the second quarter. By the end of the third it was 23-6. Comfortable, on paper.

Then the Jets remembered they were the more ambitious side all night and turned that into points. Garrett Wilson scored with 10:16 left, Allen Lazard followed with 3:46 to go, and W.McDonald levelled it at 26-26 with two minutes on the clock. Three touchdowns, no answer from Tampa Bay in between. It was as alive as a two-score cushion can get. Tampa Bay found just enough after that to get home 29-27.

The efficiency numbers explain how a 17-point lead turned into a two-point win. Tampa Bay finished at plus-1.4 offensive EPA, the Jets at minus-11.4. That's a gap of nearly 13 points of expected value per the model's own measure, and it lines up with the ledger: two turnovers for New York against none for Tampa Bay, and a pass rush that got home four times to the Jets' one. Moving the ball patiently doesn't count for much when you're handing it back twice.

Through the air, Baker Mayfield was economical rather than prolific: 19 of 29 for 233 yards and a touchdown. Tyrod Taylor threw more, completed more, 26 of 36 for 197 yards and two touchdowns, but the one interception sits right alongside that minus-11.4 EPA number as the cost of doing business the harder way. Bucky Irving led every rusher with 66 y

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 29 |
| New York Jets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| **355** | Total Yards | 296 |
| **233** | Passing Yards | 197 |
| **122** | Rushing Yards | 99 |
| 28 | First Downs | **31** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **1.4** | Offensive EPA | -11.4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win at 89% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5.0 vs the actual margin of 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adrian Hill officiated this match (112 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 12 points above Adrian Hill's career average of 44. Tampa Bay Buccaneers's victory aligns with Adrian Hill's historical trend, Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 57% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $1.29 (edge +11.1%) — model probability 88.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Tampa Bay Buccaneers here: 89% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit 137 ELO points clear, 1558 to 1421. Form leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Jets.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5.0, with the two sides combining for about 49. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win, not to win big.

New York Jets have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers took the most recent meeting 29-27 in 2025 Week 3.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Baker Mayfield starts under centre for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Justin Fields for New York Jets, with Todd Bowles and Aaron Glenn calling the shots.

The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers favourites, Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.29 and New York Jets $3.75, with the spread at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 · New York Jets 4 |
| Last meeting | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29-27 (2025) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-4 home |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Baker Mayfield · Justin Fields |
| Head coaches | Todd Bowles · Aaron Glenn |
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.29 · New York Jets $3.75 |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Adrian Hill |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tampa Bay Buccaneers

**Adrian Hill** — 112 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Adrian Hill | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4W–3L | 57% |
| New York Jets | 1W–4L | 20% |

Avg total: 44.4 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Neutral

When Adrian Hill officiates, Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 4 of 7 games (57%), significantly stronger than New York Jets's 1 from 5 (20%). Small sample (5 games for New York Jets).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.6pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 19.0pts | Avg Conceded | 28.6pts |
| 8.6pts | Avg Margin | -9.2pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W17 W · W18 W · WC L · W1 W · W2 W | 27.6 |
| New York Jets | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 L · W2 L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29 – 27 | New York Jets |
| 2021 | W17 | New York Jets | 24 – 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2017 | W10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 15 – 10 | New York Jets |
| 2013 | W1 | New York Jets | 18 – 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2009 | W14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 – 26 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Raymond James Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 3 in 2g | 3/2g (2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Bucky Irving | RB | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/10g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.99 AI 46% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 12/27g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ryan Miller | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/20g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ko Kieft | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/16g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mike Evans | WR | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 54/72g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 19' |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Braelon Allen | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Garrett Wilson | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| – | Allen Lazard | WR | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Andrew Beck | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Arian Smith | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Taylor | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Johnson | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tyrod Taylor | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Garrett Wilson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Jets: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Lazard, W.McDonald

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Bucky Irving 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 46% · no TD
- ⚡ Mike Evans 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka — 3 TDs in last 2 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Rachaad White — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Dean

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1558 · New York Jets 1421 · ELO difference: 137 in favour of Tampa Bay Buccaneers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 78 | 55 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +23 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 47 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 |
| Backfield | 61 | 49 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 54 | 47 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 |
| Special Teams | 60 | 54 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-tampa-bay-buccaneers-v-new-york-jets
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-09-21 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)