# Seattle Seahawks v New Orleans Saints — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 44 – 13 New Orleans Saints

_Seattle Seahawks soar past New Orleans Saints._

Half time: 38 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 61% / New Orleans Saints 39% · Lumen Field · Mon, 22 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6' Tipped ⚡), Tory Horton (8'), Walker (11'), Tory Horton (19'), Walker (23') · New Orleans Saints: Jack Stoll (45')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 61% | Won |
| New Orleans Saints | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.2 predicted → 31 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2025, 06:05 am_

Seattle Seahawks 44–13 New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 3 at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seattle Seahawks led 21-0 after the first quarter and never looked like giving it back. By half-time it was 38-6, and from there the final score was just paperwork. New Orleans Saints spent the whole night chasing a scoreboard that had already got away from them.

The damage was done early and it kept coming. Jaxon Smith-Njigba opened the scoring with 9:54 left in the first, Tory Horton followed inside two minutes later, and Kenneth Walker III made it three touchdowns in the opening quarter alone. New Orleans Saints hadn't even got off the mark. By the time Horton and Walker struck again in the second quarter, the margin had blown out to 38-6 at the break and the contest was effectively over before the third quarter had a ball snapped in anger.

Strip out the scoreboard and the stat sheet actually looks competitive. Seattle Seahawks outgained New Orleans Saints 320 yards to 297, a gap of 23 yards that doesn't remotely explain a 31-point margin. First downs were 29 to 28. Turnovers were even at one apiece. This wasn't a case of one side dominating field position and the other collapsing. It was a case of Seattle Seahawks turning their chances into six points every time and New Orleans Saints turning theirs into not much at all.

That's where the Offensive EPA split tells the real story: Seattle Seahawks at plus 7.5, New Orleans Saints at minus 8.3. Nearly a 16-point gap in expected points per possession, built entirely in the red zone and in the small moments that decide whether a drive ends in six or zero. Seattle Seahawks also got two sacks to New Orleans Saints' none, which matters more than it sounds when your opponent's offense is trying to climb back into a game that's already 38 points gone.

Sam Darnold ran the Seattle Seahawks operation as efficiently as you'd want, 14 from 18 for 218 yards and two touchdowns. Spencer Rattler threw more, 28 from 39, and matched Darnold's yardage at 218, but needed nearly twice the attempts to get there and finished with an interception to show for the extra work. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the standout target on the day, five catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. On the ground, Alvin Kamara led all rushers with 42 yards on 18 carries for New Orleans Saints, useful work that never had anywhere near enough support around it.

New Orleans Saints' only touchdown came from Jack Stoll to open the fourth quarter, more a courtesy than a comeback given Seattle Seahawks were already sitting on 44. Form lines had flagged this kind of gap as plausible: New Orleans Saints arrived on a five-game losing run conceding an average of 26.4 points, Seattle Seahawks on three wins from five and averaging just 17.8 conceded. Seattle Seahawks' backfield rating of 49 against New Orleans Saints' 39 showed up clearly in the run game splitting 87 to 79.

Alphr's model backed Seattle Seahawks at 61 percent and had the total at 53, not far off the actual 57. The margin call of 3.2 points, though, wasn't close to the finished product. A 31-point win was always going to embarrass most pre-match numbers, and this one did exactly that.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 21 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 44 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 13 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| **320** | Total Yards | 297 |
| **233** | Passing Yards | 218 |
| **87** | Rushing Yards | 79 |
| **29** | First Downs | 28 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **7.5** | Offensive EPA | -8.3 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.2 but the actual margin was 31 points. Total score prediction of 53 was close to the actual 57, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The combined score of 57 points was 7 points above Alex Moore's career average of 50. Seattle Seahawks bucked the trend, New Orleans Saints historically win 100% of games under Alex Moore, but couldn't convert that edge today. Seattle Seahawks's home victory fits Alex Moore's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.27 (edge -18.2%) — model probability 60.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 3 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Seattle Seahawks are the call at 61%, but New Orleans Saints stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 154 ELO points clear, 1539 to 1385. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for New Orleans Saints.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 3.2, with the two sides combining for about 53. Lean Seattle Seahawks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Seattle Seahawks taking the most recent 44-13 in 2025 Week 3.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, Spencer Rattler for New Orleans Saints, with Mike Macdonald and Kellen Moore calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Seattle Seahawks $1.27 and New Orleans Saints $3.95, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -7.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Seattle Seahawks 6 · New Orleans Saints 6 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 44-13 (2025) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 away |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · Spencer Rattler |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Kellen Moore |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.27 · New Orleans Saints $3.95 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New Orleans Saints

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 0W–0L | 0% |
| New Orleans Saints | 1W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 50.3 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Moore officiates, New Orleans Saints have won 1 of 1 games (100%), significantly stronger than Seattle Seahawks's 0 from 0 (0%). Games average 50.3 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Seattle Seahawks).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 12.6pts |
| 17.8pts | Avg Conceded | 26.4pts |
| 3.0pts | Avg Margin | -13.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W16 L · W17 W · W18 W · W1 L · W2 W | 20.8 |
| New Orleans Saints | W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 L · W2 L | 12.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New Orleans Saints lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W3 | Seattle Seahawks | 44 – 13 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2022 | W5 | New Orleans Saints | 39 – 32 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2021 | W7 | Seattle Seahawks | 10 – 13 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2019 | W3 | Seattle Seahawks | 27 – 33 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2016 | W8 | New Orleans Saints | 25 – 20 | Seattle Seahawks |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 33% | — | — |
| – | George Holani | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 11/22g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.64 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.60 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tory Horton | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 8' 19' |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/5g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Drew Lock | QB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jacardia Wright | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jalen Milroe | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 9/18g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/3g | 1/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.75 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.80 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jack Stoll | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Kendre Miller | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Kevin Austin Jr. | WR | no games | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Spencer Rattler | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Velus Jones Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New Orleans Saints** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Alvin Kamara 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Rashid Shaheed 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Olave — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Stoll

**Seattle Seahawks** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Seahawks: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Horton

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1539 · New Orleans Saints 1385 · ELO difference: 154 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | New Orleans Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 34 | 40 | New Orleans Saints +6 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 52 | Even |
| Backfield | 49 | 39 | Seattle Seahawks +10 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 51 | Seattle Seahawks +7 |
| Secondary | 52 | 52 | Even |
| Special Teams | 57 | 53 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-21 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)