# San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: San Francisco 49ers 16 – 15 Arizona Cardinals

_San Francisco 49ers edge Arizona Cardinals in a one-point thriller._

Half time: 6 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: San Francisco 49ers 43% / Arizona Cardinals 57% · Levi's Stadium · Mon, 22 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — San Francisco 49ers: Kyle Juszczyk (50') · Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride (52' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 57% | Lost |
| San Francisco 49ers | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2025, 06:25 am_

San Francisco 49ers 16–15 Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 3 at Levi's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Minus 3.2. That's San Francisco's offensive EPA for the night, worse than Arizona's minus 0.7, and by that measure the Cardinals were actually the better offence on Sunday. They still lost, 16-15, at Levi's Stadium, in a game that never got out to more than a field goal's difference at any point on the scoreboard.

The efficiency numbers underline how scrappy this one was. San Francisco piled up 357 total yards to Arizona's 265, ran off 32 first downs to the Cardinals' 23, and still couldn't shake them until the final quarter. Mac Jones threw 27 of 41 for 284 yards but tossed the game's only interception, which likely explains that ugly EPA number despite the healthy yardage. Kyler Murray was tidier by comparison, 22 of 35 for 159 and a touchdown, working with less ball but making cleaner use of it.

The scoreboard tells its own story of a slow build. Nil-all after the first quarter, San Francisco nosed in front 6-3 by half-time, and Arizona levelled it up 6-6 through three quarters. Nobody separated from anybody until the fourth. Kyle Juszczyk's touchdown with 10:54 left put the 49ers up 12-6, Trey McBride answered for Arizona at 8:42 to make it 13-12, and San Francisco held on from there to close it out 16-15. One score, right to the final whistle.

Given the turnover column, plenty will look at that finish and figure Arizona should have found a way to win it. The Cardinals didn't cough the ball up once, San Francisco did, and conventional wisdom says the team that wins that battle wins the game. Not this time. Whatever Jones's pick cost the 49ers, the volume of first downs and total yardage more than covered for it. Both sides finished with a single sack each, so the pass rush battle was a wash even if the ledger elsewhere wasn't.

Individually, Christian McCaffrey did what he does without doing much of it, 52 yards on 17 carries, the kind of grinding workload that doesn't show up on a highlight reel but keeps drives mo

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 |

**Key Match Stats**

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| **357** | Total Yards | 265 |
| **284** | Passing Yards | 159 |
| 73 | Rushing Yards | **106** |
| **32** | First Downs | 23 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -3.2 | Offensive EPA | **-0.7** |

**Model Report Card**

San Francisco 49ers defied the model's 57% prediction for Arizona Cardinals, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting San Francisco 49ers by 0.9 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 31 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 48. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 31 points was 15 points below John Hussey's career average of 46. San Francisco 49ers's home victory fits John Hussey's profile, home teams win 66% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $2.05 (edge +7.8%) — model probability 56.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 1 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Arizona Cardinals are the call at 57%, but San Francisco 49ers stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: San Francisco 49ers sit 23 ELO points clear, 1516 to 1493, so the model is backing Arizona Cardinals against the ratings gap. Form leans Arizona Cardinals' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for San Francisco 49ers.

Arizona Cardinals own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Secondary and Recent Form. Lean Arizona Cardinals, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

San Francisco 49ers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and San Francisco 49ers took the most recent meeting 41-22 in 2025 Week 11.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Brock Purdy starts under centre for San Francisco 49ers, Kyler Murray for Arizona Cardinals, with Kyle Shanahan and Jonathan Gannon calling the shots.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, San Francisco 49ers $1.80 and Arizona Cardinals $2.05, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -1.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | San Francisco 49ers 7 · Arizona Cardinals 5 |
| Last meeting | San Francisco 49ers 41-22 (2025) |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 home |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy · Kyler Murray |
| Head coaches | Kyle Shanahan · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | San Francisco 49ers $1.80 · Arizona Cardinals $2.05 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -1.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 5W–4L | 56% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5W–4L | 56% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under John Hussey, San Francisco 49ers 5W–4L (56%) and Arizona Cardinals 5W–4L (56%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 26.6pts |
| 30.0pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -6.4pts | Avg Margin | 5.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 W · W2 W | 23.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 W · W2 W | 26.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Arizona Cardinals | 22 – 41 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2025 | W3 | San Francisco 49ers | 16 – 15 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2024 | W18 | Arizona Cardinals | 47 – 24 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | W5 | San Francisco 49ers | 23 – 24 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2023 | W15 | Arizona Cardinals | 29 – 45 | San Francisco 49ers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·2·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/7g | 23/21g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.60 AI 47% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.10 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Tonges | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Willis | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Guerendo | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/28g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/14g | 8/56g | 16% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Mac Jones | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/4g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $8.75 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $41.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/6g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | James Conner | RB | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·1) | 6/7g | 3/4g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 49% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 2/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kyler Murray | QB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 3/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Simi Fehoko | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tip Reiman | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trey Benson | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | Zay Jones | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ James Conner 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 49% · no TD
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Marvin Harrison Jr. — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Cardinals: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 47% · no TD
- ⚡ Marquez Valdes-Scantling 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Ricky Pearsall — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 12 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Juszczyk

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — San Francisco 49ers 1516 · Arizona Cardinals 1493 · ELO difference: 23 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | San Francisco 49ers | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 56 | 60 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 49 | 59 | Arizona Cardinals +10 |
| Backfield | 52 | 59 | Arizona Cardinals +7 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 51 | San Francisco 49ers +5 |
| Secondary | 51 | 58 | Arizona Cardinals +7 |
| Special Teams | 52 | 71 | Arizona Cardinals +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Arizona Cardinals predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-21 20:25 UTC (latest tip update)