# Philadelphia Eagles v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Philadelphia Eagles 33 – 26 Los Angeles Rams

_Philadelphia Eagles hit back to swoop on Los Angeles Rams from 12 down._

Half time: 7 – 19 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 77% / Los Angeles Rams 23% · Lincoln Financial Field · Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts (7' Tipped ⚡), Dallas Goedert (34'), A.J. Brown (43'), DeVonta Smith (59' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Davis (60') · Los Angeles Rams: Davante Adams (14' Tipped ⚡), Kyren Williams (31' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 77% | Won |
| Los Angeles Rams | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.0 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Philadelphia Eagles 33–26 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 3 at Lincoln Financial Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Philadelphia trailed 19-7 at the break and looked every bit like a side about to be run off its own turf. The Rams had 160 rushing yards to lean on and a pass rush getting home at will, and Kyren Williams punched it in early in the third to make it 25-7 before a two-point conversion pushed the gap to 26-7. At that point the Eagles' last-five record of five straight wins meant nothing. This was a different game.

Then Philadelphia found three unanswered scores. Dallas Goedert got them within one score, A.J. Brown made it 20-26 late in the third, and by the time the quarter ended it was 21-26. DeVonta Smith's touchdown with 1:51 left flipped the lead, and a late score with three seconds on the clock sealed it at 33-26. From 19 down at the break to a seven-point winner: that's the arc, and it happened almost entirely in the second half.

The Rams didn't lose the stat sheet. They outgained Philadelphia 356 yards to 312, out-rushed them 160 to 86, and picked up 31 first downs to the Eagles' 26. Their pass rush got home four times against Jalen Hurts to Philadelphia's one sack of Matthew Stafford, and their offensive EPA of minus-2.3 against Philadelphia's plus-1 tells you the Eagles' possessions carried more value even while trailing on the ledger. Turnovers were even at one apiece, so this wasn't decided by giveaways. It was decided by who scored when it counted.

Hurts finished 21-of-32 for 226 yards and three touchdowns through the air, adding his rushing score in the first quarter to open the scoring for Philadelphia. Stafford went 19-of-33 for 196 yards and two touchdowns but threw the game's only interception, and against a Philadelphia backfield rating of 70 to the Rams' 50 pre-match, LA still found 160 yards on the ground behind Williams, who led all rushers with 94 yards on 20 carries. Puka Nacua was the game's best target regardless of result, 11 catches for 112 yards, and the Rams' receiving corps rating of 64 against Philadelphia's 56 showed up exactly there.

The Rams did plenty right. They moved the ball, they won the rushing battle comfortably, and their pass rush disrupted Philadelphia's plan for most of the night. What they didn't do was find another touchdown once the Eagles started scoring in bunches, and a 19-point cushion evaporated in a hurry.

Alphr's model had Philadelphia at 77 percent to win and picked the margin at 11 points on a total of 58. The final was Philadelphia by 7 on

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 33 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 312 | Total Yards | **356** |
| **226** | Passing Yards | 196 |
| 86 | Rushing Yards | **160** |
| 26 | First Downs | **31** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| **1** | Offensive EPA | -2.3 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Philadelphia Eagles to win at 77% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Philadelphia Eagles by 11.0 vs the actual margin of 7 points. Total score prediction of 58 was close to the actual 59, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 59 points was 13 points above Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Philadelphia Eagles bucked the trend, Los Angeles Rams historically win 60% of games under Brad Rogers, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.51 (edge +10.5%) — model probability 77.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 11 · Predicted total: 58

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Philadelphia Eagles here: 77% to see off Los Angeles Rams. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 118 ELO points clear, 1692 to 1574. Form leans Philadelphia Eagles' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Los Angeles Rams.

Philadelphia Eagles own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Philadelphia Eagles by 11.0, with the two sides combining for about 58. Philadelphia Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and Philadelphia Eagles took the most recent meeting 33-26 in 2025 Week 3.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Jalen Hurts starts under centre for Philadelphia Eagles, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Nick Sirianni and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Philadelphia Eagles $1.51 and Los Angeles Rams $2.64, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Philadelphia Eagles 10 · Los Angeles Rams 2 |
| Last meeting | Philadelphia Eagles 33-26 (2025) |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 home |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jalen Hurts · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Nick Sirianni · Sean McVay |
| Market | Philadelphia Eagles $1.51 · Los Angeles Rams $2.64 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Rams

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2W–2L | 50% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3W–2L | 60% |

Avg total: 45.7 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Los Angeles Rams hold a 10-point edge: 3W–2L (60%) vs Philadelphia Eagles's 2W–2L (50%). Small sample (4 games for Philadelphia Eagles).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 33.4pts | Avg Score | 24.2pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 19.0pts |
| 12.6pts | Avg Margin | 5.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | DIV W · CONF W · SB W · W1 W · W2 W | 33.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W18 L · WC W · DIV L · W1 W · W2 W | 24.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 33 – 26 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2024 | DIV | Philadelphia Eagles | 28 – 22 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2024 | W12 | Los Angeles Rams | 20 – 37 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2023 | W5 | Los Angeles Rams | 14 – 23 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2020 | W2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 19 – 37 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lincoln Financial Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 3 in 2g | 11/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·3·1·2·1) | 2/3g | 36/42g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.79 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·3·0·1·1) | 4/3g | 13/16g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.78 AI 55% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 17/29g | 40% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 11/51g | 26% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 18/38g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| – | Grant Calcaterra | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/11g | 18% | — | — |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Kylen Granson | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 4/3g | 2/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (1·1·2·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.05 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tutu Atwell | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/4g | 4/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 41% · new club · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

**Philadelphia Eagles** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 0 pass) · model 55% · no TD
- ⚡ Jalen Hurts — 8 TDs in last 5 (8 rush · 0 pass) · model 46% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Eagles: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Goedert, A.Brown, J.Davis

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Philadelphia Eagles 1692 · Los Angeles Rams 1574 · ELO difference: 118 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Philadelphia Eagles | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 69 | 55 | Philadelphia Eagles +14 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 64 | Los Angeles Rams +8 |
| Backfield | 70 | 50 | Philadelphia Eagles +20 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 60 | Even |
| Secondary | 58 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 74 | 69 | Philadelphia Eagles +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Philadelphia Eagles predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 58 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-21 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)