# New England Patriots v Pittsburgh Steelers — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New England Patriots 14 – 21 Pittsburgh Steelers

_Pittsburgh Steelers grind down New England Patriots in a tight one._

Half time: 7 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New England Patriots 32% / Pittsburgh Steelers 68% · Gillette Stadium · Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — New England Patriots: Hunter Henry (21'), Hunter Henry (45') · Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Gainwell (7'), DK Metcalf (17' Tipped ⚡), Austin (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 68% | Won |
| New England Patriots | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.1 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

New England Patriots 14–21 Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 3 at Gillette Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Pittsburgh had this game half won before New England had even touched the ball with any purpose. Kenny Gainwell opened the scoring with 8:29 left in the first quarter, DK Metcalf made it 13-0 with 13:53 to go in the second, and by the time Hunter Henry finally got the Patriots on the board at the 9:04 mark of that same quarter, Pittsburgh had already banked the two scores that would prove decisive. New England never led all night. They never even drew level.

Final score: Pittsburgh Steelers 21, New England Patriots 14, at Gillette Stadium. Half-time had it 7-14 in the Steelers' favour, and the third quarter passed without a single point from either side. The Patriots spent the second half chasing a margin Pittsburgh had built in the opening 24 minutes.

Here's the strange part. Strip away the scoreboard and New England were the better team by almost every yardage measure that usually decides these things. 387 total yards to 203. 268 passing yards to 139. 36 first downs to 17. New England even ran for 119 against Pittsburgh's 64. None of it mattered, because New England turned the ball over five times to Pittsburgh's one, and Pittsburgh's pass rush got home five times while New England's managed none.

Offensive EPA had New England at minus 11.2 against Pittsburgh's minus 2.4, which is really just the advanced-stats way of confirming what the turnover column already showed: New England moved the ball all night and handed it

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New England Patriots | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| **387** | Total Yards | 203 |
| **268** | Passing Yards | 139 |
| **119** | Rushing Yards | 64 |
| **36** | First Downs | 17 |
| 5 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **5** |
| -11.2 | Offensive EPA | **-2.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Pittsburgh Steelers to win at 68% probability. The predicted margin of 0.1 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 35 points was 11 points below Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Pittsburgh Steelers bucked the trend, New England Patriots historically win 50% of games under Clete Blakeman, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Pittsburgh Steelers to win @ $1.83 (edge +13.0%) — model probability 67.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Pittsburgh Steelers by 0 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Pittsburgh Steelers here: 68% to see off New England Patriots. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Pittsburgh Steelers sit 99 ELO points clear, 1499 to 1400. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Pittsburgh Steelers.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Pittsburgh Steelers to win, not to win big.

New England Patriots have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Pittsburgh Steelers took the most recent meeting 21-14 in 2025 Week 3.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 4-4 away, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Drake Maye starts under centre for New England Patriots, Aaron Rodgers for Pittsburgh Steelers, with Mike Vrabel and Mike Tomlin calling the shots.

The market has Pittsburgh Steelers favourites, New England Patriots $2.00 and Pittsburgh Steelers $1.83, with the spread at Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New England Patriots 9 · Pittsburgh Steelers 3 |
| Last meeting | Pittsburgh Steelers 21-14 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-3 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 4-4 away |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Aaron Rodgers |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Mike Tomlin |
| Market | New England Patriots $2.00 · Pittsburgh Steelers $1.83 |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New England Patriots

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 7W–7L | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7W–13L | 35% |

Avg total: 46.4 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Clete Blakeman officiates, New England Patriots have won 7 of 14 games (50%), significantly stronger than Pittsburgh Steelers's 7 from 20 (35%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.4pts | Avg Score | 18.4pts |
| 25.4pts | Avg Conceded | 27.8pts |
| -6.0pts | Avg Margin | -9.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 L · W2 W | 19.4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W17 L · W18 L · WC L · W1 W · W2 L | 18.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W3 | New England Patriots | 14 – 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2023 | W14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 18 – 21 | New England Patriots |
| 2022 | W2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 14 – 17 | New England Patriots |
| 2019 | W1 | New England Patriots | 33 – 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2018 | W15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 – 10 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Antonio Gibson | RB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/15g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 10/33g | 18% | — | 🏉 21' 45' |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 14/26g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 7/7g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.05 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 1/17g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jonnu Smith 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ DK Metcalf 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 26% · new club · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Steelers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Gainwell, C.Austin

**New England Patriots** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 31% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Kayshon Boutte — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: H.Henry

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1400 · Pittsburgh Steelers 1499 · ELO difference: 99 in favour of Pittsburgh Steelers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | Pittsburgh Steelers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 46 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 58 | Even |
| Backfield | 48 | 49 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 52 | 56 | Even |
| Special Teams | 55 | 59 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New England Patriots |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Pittsburgh Steelers favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-21 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)