# Los Angeles Chargers v Denver Broncos — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Chargers 23 – 20 Denver Broncos

_Los Angeles Chargers hold off a fast-finishing Denver Broncos._

Half time: 10 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 86% / Denver Broncos 14% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 22 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Chargers: Omarion Hampton (29'), Keenan Allen (58' Tipped ⚡) · Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton (30' Tipped ⚡), J.K. Dobbins (32' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 86% | Won |
| Denver Broncos | 14% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2025, 06:05 am_

Los Angeles Chargers 23–20 Denver Broncos in NFL Week 3 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Los Angeles Chargers beat Denver Broncos 23-20 at SoFi Stadium. Put the yardage next to that scoreline and it stops making sense: 406 to 271, 40 first downs to 13. This wasn't a three-point game for most of the night. It became one.

The Broncos were still level at 7-10 at the break, and Los Angeles hadn't exactly been running away with it before that either, up 3-0 after the first quarter before Omarion Hampton's score with under two minutes left in the half made it 9-0, only for Courtland Sutton to answer almost immediately and cut it to 10-7. Denver then took the lead outright early in the third when J.K. Dobbins punched one in to make it 13-10, and led 17-13 heading into the fourth. Keenan Allen's touchdown with 2:44 to go was what actually got the Chargers back in front, 19-20, before the final margin settled at 23-20.

So a game the yardage says should have been a blowout instead came down to the last few minutes. The gap is Denver's pass rush and Los Angeles's own giveaway. Five sacks to two is a heavy price for Justin Herbert to pay, and it's no accident the Broncos' pass rush graded out as the stronger positional unit coming in, 61 to the Chargers' 52. Add the turnover Los Angeles coughed up against none from Denver, and you've got 406 yards of offence that kept getting interrupted at the worst moments.

Herbert still finished 28-of-47 for 300 yards and a touchdown, but the one interception mattered more than the raw numbers suggest given how tight this stayed. Bo Nix was far more efficient with far less, 14-of-25 for 153 and a score, and let his skill players do the rest. Dobbins ran for 83 yards on just 11 carries to lead all rushers, a number that lines up with Denver actually out-rushing Los Angeles 118 to 106 despite being buried in total yards. Sutton was the best individual weapon on the field either way, 6 catches for 118 yards and the touchdown that tied things up late in the second.

The positional read pre-match had Los Angeles well ahead in the receiving corps, 66 to 55, and that showed up in the aggregate passing numbers, 300 yards to 153. But Denver's edge in the backfield, 50 to 47, and that pass rush advantage were exactly the sort of thing that keeps a heavy underdog in a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter.

Alphr's model had Los Angeles as 86% favourites and picked the margin at 2.3 points. The Chargers won by 3. The total was pegged at 49, the game finished on 43, close enough. Form coming in also lined up: Los Angeles had won four of five with an average margin of 8.8 points, Denver had won just two of five and were only up by an average of 3. That form gap showed early. It just didn't hold the way the pre-match numbers implied it should have, and Denver made Los Angeles work for every one of those 406 yards right to the final whistle.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| Denver Broncos | 0 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **406** | Total Yards | 271 |
| **300** | Passing Yards | 153 |
| 106 | Rushing Yards | **118** |
| **40** | First Downs | 13 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **5** |
| -3.1 | Offensive EPA | **-2.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Chargers to win at 86% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Los Angeles Chargers by 2.3 vs the actual margin of 3 points. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 43, within 6 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The combined score of 43 points was 4 points below Shawn Smith's career average of 47. Los Angeles Chargers's victory aligns with Shawn Smith's historical trend, Los Angeles Chargers have a 38% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.65 (edge +25.1%) — model probability 85.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 2 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Chargers here: 86% to see off Denver Broncos. Form leans Los Angeles Chargers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Denver Broncos.

Los Angeles Chargers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 49. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Los Angeles Chargers to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Denver Broncos taking the most recent 19-3 in 2025 Week 18.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Justin Herbert starts under centre for Los Angeles Chargers, Bo Nix for Denver Broncos, with Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Los Angeles Chargers $1.65 and Denver Broncos $2.30, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Chargers 6 · Denver Broncos 6 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 19-3 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 away |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · Bo Nix |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · Sean Payton |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $1.65 · Denver Broncos $2.30 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Chargers

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Denver Broncos | 2W–5L | 29% |

Avg total: 47.5 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Los Angeles Chargers hold a 9-point edge: 3W–5L (38%) vs Denver Broncos's 2W–5L (29%). Small sample (7 games for Denver Broncos).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 26.6pts | Avg Score | 23.4pts |
| 17.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| 8.8pts | Avg Margin | 3.0pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W17 W · W18 W · WC L · W1 W · W2 W | 26.6 |
| Denver Broncos | W17 L · W18 W · WC L · W1 W · W2 L | 23.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Denver Broncos | 19 – 3 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2025 | W3 | Los Angeles Chargers | 23 – 20 | Denver Broncos |
| 2024 | W16 | Los Angeles Chargers | 34 – 27 | Denver Broncos |
| 2024 | W6 | Denver Broncos | 16 – 23 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2023 | W17 | Denver Broncos | 16 – 9 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/4g | 6/17g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 34% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 7/11g | 12/29g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/17g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Hassan Haskins | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/7g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 9/41g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/9g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Najee Harris | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/3g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tucker Fisk | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Conklin | TE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/2g | 14% | — | — |

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 6/11g | 1/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·2·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.80 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Lucas Krull | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/7g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Denver Broncos** (3 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · new club · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Marvin Mims Jr. — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Los Angeles Chargers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Keenan Allen 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 42% · new club · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: O.Hampton

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1566 · Denver Broncos 1548 · ELO difference: 19 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 69 | 65 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 66 | 55 | Los Angeles Chargers +11 |
| Backfield | 47 | 50 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 61 | Denver Broncos +9 |
| Secondary | 56 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 75 | 50 | Los Angeles Chargers +25 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 86%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-21 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)