# Jacksonville Jaguars v Houston Texans — NFL Week 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – 10 Houston Texans

_Jacksonville Jaguars survive a scare against Houston Texans._

Half time: 7 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 20% / Houston Texans 80% · TIAA Bank Stadium · Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Jacksonville Jaguars: Bhayshul Tuten (13' Tipped ⚡), Travis Etienne (59' Tipped ⚡) · Houston Texans: Nico Collins (51' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 80% | Lost |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 20% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Jacksonville Jaguars 17–10 Houston Texans in NFL Week 3 at TIAA Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Houston Texans did plenty right on Sunday and still walked out of TIAA Bank Stadium with nothing to show for it. Their offensive EPA of minus-7.6 was actually the better mark on the day, ahead of Jacksonville's minus-10.6. Rushing yards were near enough dead level, 87 to 86. None of it mattered, because the Texans coughed the ball up three times to Jacksonville's one, and in a game this tight that's most of the story.

Nico Collins did his bit too. Eight catches for 104 yards and the Texans' only touchdown, a genuinely productive day for a receiver stuck on the losing side. C.J. Stroud threw for 204 yards and a score of his own, going 25 of 38. But he also threw two interceptions, and against a Jacksonville secondary rated a healthy 67 against Houston's 55 coming into the game, that gap showed up where you'd expect it to.

Turnovers decided this one more than any single play. Three giveaways from Houston against one from Jacksonville is a hard hole to climb out of, especially when the yardage and first-down counts were as even as they were early on.

Jacksonville won it 17-10, and led 7-3 at the break, so this wasn't some late avalanche. It was a lead built early and defended for four quarters.

Bhayshul Tuten opened the scoring with 2:09 left in the first quarter, and the Jaguars carried that 7-0 buffer through to half-time, with Houston clawing back only as far as 7-3. Jacksonville added three more points in the third to push it to 10-3, and that's how it stood heading into the last quarter. Houston finally got its touchdown through Collins with 9:25 left in the fourth, making it 10-9 and turning this into a genuine one-score contest with time still to play. Travis Etienne answered with 1:52 remaining, his touchdown making it 16-10 before the extra point locked in the final 17-10.

The yardage battle went Jacksonville's way too, 308 to 291, and the first-down count wasn

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| Houston Texans | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| **308** | Total Yards | 291 |
| **222** | Passing Yards | 204 |
| 86 | Rushing Yards | **87** |
| **25** | First Downs | 18 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| -10.6 | Offensive EPA | **-7.6** |

**Model Report Card**

Jacksonville Jaguars defied the model's 80% prediction for Houston Texans, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.5 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The game's 27 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The combined score of 27 points was 19 points below Alex Kemp's career average of 46. Jacksonville Jaguars bucked the trend, Houston Texans historically win 50% of games under Alex Kemp, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $2.05 (edge +31.4%) — model probability 80.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Houston Texans +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 3 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Houston Texans here: 80% to see off Jacksonville Jaguars. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Houston Texans sit 82 ELO points clear, 1507 to 1425.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Houston Texans by 2.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Houston Texans to win, not to win big.

Houston Texans have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Houston Texans took the most recent meeting 36-29 in 2025 Week 10.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Houston Texans went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 23.8 points for and 17.4 against.

Trevor Lawrence starts under centre for Jacksonville Jaguars, C.J. Stroud for Houston Texans, with Liam Coen and DeMeco Ryans calling the shots.

The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favourites, Jacksonville Jaguars $1.80 and Houston Texans $2.05, with the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Jacksonville Jaguars 3 · Houston Texans 9 |
| Last meeting | Houston Texans 36-29 (2025) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 7-2 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Houston Texans 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.8 for · 17.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · C.J. Stroud |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · DeMeco Ryans |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $1.80 · Houston Texans $2.05 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Houston Texans

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Houston Texans | 4W–4L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Houston Texans hold a 12-point edge: 4W–4L (50%) vs Jacksonville Jaguars's 3W–5L (38%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 19.8pts | Avg Conceded | 16.6pts |
| 2.2pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L | 22.0 |
| Houston Texans | W18 W · WC W · DIV L · W1 L · W2 L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Houston Texans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | Houston Texans | 36 – 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2025 | W3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 – 10 | Houston Texans |
| 2024 | W13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 – 23 | Houston Texans |
| 2024 | W4 | Houston Texans | 24 – 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2023 | W12 | Houston Texans | 21 – 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIAA Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 7/8g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Hunter Long | TE | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 9/23g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/12g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/9g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 6/28g | 18% | — | — |

**Houston Texans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Chubb | RB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Nico Collins | WR | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 0/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| – | C.J. Stroud | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Christian Kirk | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/18g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jakob Johnson | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Higgins | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Noel | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Woody Marks | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Houston Texans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Nico Collins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Nick Chubb 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Texans: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Bhayshul Tuten — 1 TD in last 2 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Dyami Brown — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 24% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Houston Texans hold the ELO advantage (1507 vs 1425), but the market favours Jacksonville Jaguars (@1.80). The model sides with ELO, Houston Texans predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1425 · Houston Texans 1507 · ELO difference: 82 in favour of Houston Texans

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | Houston Texans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 46 | 51 | Houston Texans +5 |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 57 | Even |
| Backfield | 57 | 41 | Jacksonville Jaguars +16 |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 55 | Jacksonville Jaguars +5 |
| Secondary | 67 | 55 | Jacksonville Jaguars +12 |
| Special Teams | 70 | 62 | Jacksonville Jaguars +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Houston Texans |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Houston Texans |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Houston Texans predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-21 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)